MLB Notebook: Seattle Mariners Preview

The Seattle Mariners have mastered the art of being almost-but-not-quite. They’ve won between 85-90 games each of the last four seasons. But that’s only translated into one playoff appearance. At the end of last season, it translated into a managerial change. Dan Wilson took over from Scott Servais over the last 34 games and Wilson will be on the job full-time this year. Can Seattle finally get over the hump?

Here’s our spring outlook on the Mariners:

HITTING FOR POWER

Cal Raleigh is a great power-hitting catcher, consistently hitting 30 homers a year. Luke Raley has started to emerge, getting full-time duty the last two seasons and hitting a combined 41 home runs. Raley will move from the outfield to first base this season. On the other side of the infield, third baseman Jorge Polanco certainly showed power potential in Minnesota, but he really slipped last season in his first year in the Pacific Northwest.

The Mariners have a couple of veterans at DH, Mitch Garver and Rowdy Tellez, who each have a past as home run threats, but a recent history of strong decline. If just one of them could hit even 15-20 homers it would be a nice boost.

But the two keys for this entire offense, power or anything else, are Randy Arozarena in leftfield and Julio Rodriguez in center. J-Rod’s power slipped last season, but he’s still averaged 27 dingers over a three-year cycle. Arozarena consistently hits 20 home runs a year.

On balance, Seattle has enough muscle to be a contender again.

GETTING ON BASE

Arozarena has got to get things turned around in this area. His batting average has gone down every year he’s been in the majors, and it bottomed out last year at .219. He’s too good a hitter and too talented a base-stealer not to be a steady threat. Rodriguez is more consistent, hitting in the .270 range with on-base percentages in the .330s. It would be nice if he could at least bump the OBP up to .350, because he’s also such a good base-stealing threat.

The middle infielders, Dylan Moore and J.P. Crawford, are adequate at getting on base, although that’s mostly through drawing walks. Rightfielder Victor Robles usually bats in the .260 range.

STARTING PITCHING

The Mariner starters give them a chance to win every night out. Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo all take their turn and post ERAs in the 3s. There’s not a lot to say here and if you’re a Seattle fan that’s a good thing—it’s a no-drama, consistent group.

BULLPEN

Andres Munoz looks pretty good at closer. The rest of the pen is kind of a question mark. Matt Brash is out for at least April and Gregory Santos is trying to come back from injury. Arms like Taylor Saucedo, Trent Thornton, and Collin Snider can go either way.

OUTLOOK

They have starting pitching and they have power. That should be good enough to win—stop if you’ve heard this before Seattle—about 85-90 games. Whether Arozarena can arrest his decline, and the bullpen comes together will tell if they can go higher. But, at the very least, they should go Over on the 85.5 win total prop posted in the betting markets.