2025 MLB Postseason Overview
The chase for October glory begins this afternoon. Twelve teams take their shot. Some are surging, some are sliding, some are drifting. All have strengths that could lift them and weaknesses that could send them home in short order.
We’ll review all 12 teams. Let’s start with the bracket:
AMERICAN LEAGUE
(4)NY Yanks vs. (5)Boston Winner to play (1)Toronto
(3)Cleveland vs. (6)Detroit Winner to play (2)Seattle
NATIONAL LEAGUE
(4)Chi Cubs vs. (5)San Diego Winner to play (1)Milwaukee
(3)LA Dodgers vs. (6)Cincinnati Winner to play (2)Philadelphia
The four Wild-Card Round matchups will be a best-of-three, potentially going through Thursday. The Division Series round then begins on Saturday.
The purpose of this post is to give a broad overview of each team. We list them in order of the betting odds, to get a sense of how the market sees all the contenders. For those who don’t follow betting markets, the number is profit gained on a 100-unit wager. Even if you don’t bet (we don’t in this space), the number is shorthand for what informed opinion (oddsmakers and those who put serious money behind their opinions) think about each team.
We also show eachteam’s overall record. We’ll then further break that down to show what they did in August and September—a key break point in the schedule, coming right after the trade deadline. Through this record, we can get a sense of who has playing good (or bad) baseball for a sustained period, and whose record might be distorted by what happened in May.
Finally, we conclude with snap analysis—a simple paragraph talking about the core strengths of each team that could lift them to a championship, and the weaknesses that could send them home. Through all of this, the objective is to provide a concise portrait of all 12 teams.
With the table set, let’s dive in:
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Odds: (+425)
Record: 96-66
August/September: 35-19
Why They’ll Win: The Phils have no weaknesses. They have balanced star power. Trea Turner hits for average and steals bases. Kyle Schwarber draws walks and hits home runs. Bryce Harper brings more muscle. The rotation is led by legit aces in Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez. A trade deadline move that brought in closer Jhoan Duran shored up the only real Achilles heel. Role players like Harrison Bader are playing well, and others, like Brandon Marsh and Nick Castellanos have had their moments in previous Octobers.
Why They Won’t: Losing Zack Wheeler was a huge blow to the rotation. In the playoffs, this injury also strips a little bit of bullpen depth, as you can’t put Taijuan Walker (or Aaron Nola) in relief, and even the Duran trade couldn’t solve all the depth problems in the relief corps. At a time of year when bullpens get emptied, the Phils could come up short in the arms race.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Odds: (+475)
Record: 93-69
August/September: 30-23
Why They’ll Win: The Dodgers hit. It starts with the incomparable Shohei Ohtani and goes on to include Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, and Will Smith. Mookie Betts didn’t have a good year at the plate, but does any pitch really relish the thought of seeing Mookie in the box come October? If postseasons are defined by stars, no lineup shines brighter than the one in Los Angeles. And last year, they exorcised some of their recent playoff demons.
Why They Won’t: The Dodgers can’t pitch. They ranked 17th in the majors for composite ERA and the bullpen is even worse, ranking 21st. There is not a single arm you can really count on in relief. Like the Phils, L.A. has several starters who have pitched well—rotation ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, and Clayton Kershaw. Unlike the Phils, none of those arms really work deep into games. Los Angeles will need some relievers to pitch way over their regular season norms for the next few weeks.
SEATTLE MARINERS
Odds: (+500)
Record: 90-72
August/September: 33-19
Why They’ll Win: The Mariners are surging into the playoffs, having pulled away in the AL West and also moving into position to get a bye into the Division Series. Cal Raleigh’s 60-homer season as a switch-hitting catcher is one of the great stories of this season. Moreover, Cal is not alone in the lineup—he has Julio Rodriguez, a proven October performer in Randy Arozarena, Dominic Canzone, Josh Naylor, and Jorge Polanco. The rotation is balanced, the bullpen has quality depth, and Andres Munoz is as good as it gets in the closer’s role.
Why They Won’t: Seattle doesn’t hif for average, ranking 20th in the majors. The quality of the rotation is dependent on how healthy Bryan Woo is, as he looks ready to come off the injured list. While the Mariners have good pitchers, Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby haven’t had great years. If they have a power outage at the wrong time, the ability to hit for contact or get dominant starting pitching—the best ways to counter such an outage—are lacking.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Odds: (+700)
Record: 94-68
August/September: 31-22
Why They’ll Win: No one gets on base or hits for contact like these Blue Jays. They rank first in the majors for both batting average and on-base percentages. They have several players who can take over a series, including Vladdy Guerrero Jr., George Springer and Bo Bichette (presuming the latter will be healthy after a September injury). Springer, the 2017 World Series MVP has a demonstrated ability to perform in October. Bichette is playing for a contract as he enters free agency. And while Toronto hasn’t had a real rotation ace this season, arms like Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios and Shane Bieber have shown an extended ability to pitch at that level before.
Why They Won’t: We can talk all we want about the ability of the starters to pitch at a high level. They haven’t done it for the last six months and there’s no reason to think it will start now. The staff overall is a complete mess—19th in composite ERA. There’s no one in the bullpen that manager John Schneider can turn to with complete trust. The Jays better outslug their opponents. Not easy to do that at this time of year.
NEW YORK YANKEES
Odds: (+800)
Record: 94-68
August/September: 34-19
Why They’ll Win: The Yankees are hot at the right time and they score runs in bunches, the most prolific offense in the league. Aaron Judge does everything at elite levels and the lineup is stacked from top to bottom with power. That includes previous LCS MVPs in Cody Bellinger and Giancarlo Stanton. It includes Ben Rice, Jazz Chisholm, and Trent Grisham. The pitching has two legitimate aces in Max Fried and Carlos Rodon, and the bullpen has a shutdown closer in David Bednar.
Why They Won’t: Other than Judge, the rest of the Yankee hitters are more boom-or-bust. None hit for average on a consistent basis and all of those power numbers are predicated on playing half their games in the bandbox that is Yankee Stadium. The bullpen is very short on depth, completely dependent on Devin Williams and Camilio Doval to find the form of years gone by. The left side of the infield is a big hole.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Odds: (+800)
Record: 97-65
August/September: 33-21
Why They’ll Win: The Brew Crew has won more games than anyone in baseball. They hit for average, ranking third in the majors and they steal bases. Brice Turang at second base sums up this offense in a snapshot. Speed and the ability to make contact are more sustainable than power, especially against the league’s best pitching staffs. And speaking of pitching, Milwaukee has a true ace in Freddy Peralta, a deep rotation and a lights out combo at the end of games with Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill.
Why They Won’t: Power might be “hit or miss”, but it can still transform a game in the blink of an eye, and we’re at a time of year when one game transforms a series. The Brewers have less ability to do that than other top contenders. They rank just 22nd in the majors for home runs. Furthermore, Milwaukee, by clinching the division early and having had the best overall record in control for the past several weeks, has kind of meandered through September. Can they flip the switch back on in time?
CHICAGO CUBS
Odds: (+1400)
Record: 92-70
August/September: 30-25
Why They’ll Win: The Cub offense is as well-balanced as any in baseball. Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki are just excellent all-around hitters. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, Ian Happ and Dansby Swanson all have power. Swanson, along with Nico Hoerner are threats to steal bases. Chicago can grind out runs if they need to, and they have plenty of capacity for quick lightning strikes. And the pitching staff, while not dominant, and dealing with the loss of Cade Horton, still has four reliable starters headlined by Matthew Boyd and a balanced bullpen that has gotten better throughout the season.
Why They Won’t: If there’s a flaw in the Chicago offense, it’s that they aren’t great—at least by playoff standards—at hitting for average, where they rank 13th in the majors. It becomes tougher to draw walks at this time of year, given the quality of pitching and eventually you just need to put the ball in play. A couple of nights with a power drought and the season is over. And the flip side of a balanced bullpen is when there is no clear star, you’re kind of guessing on a night-to-night basis who will deliver. A wrong guess—especially in the best-of-three Wild-Card Round—means the season is over.
SAN DIEGO PADRES
Odds: (+1400)
Record: 90-72
August/September: 30-23
Why They’ll Win: In any game that turns into a bullpen battle, no one is better suited to win than San Diego. They have the best relievers’ ERA in the majors and elite arms in Robert Suarez and Mason Miller. Nick Pivetta and Michael King give them reliable starters in the rotation. Offensively, Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. are all-around performers in the everyday lineup. Luis Arraez is one of the great contact hitters of recent seasons. Jackson Merrill and Ramon Laureano can provide some pop.
Why They Won’t: We can drop all the names we want from the everyday lineup and the fact still remains that San Diego finished 18th in the majors for runs scored. You can attribute some of that to playing in vast Petco Park, but if you do that, you also have to take points off some of their pitching numbers. And when you cite Pivetta and King in the rotation, those really aren’t aces and the depth behind them is minimal, especially with Yu Darvish showing his age.
BOSTON RED SOX
Odds: (+1800)
Record: 89-73
August/September: 30-22
Why They’ll Win: The Red Sox can come out with three starters who are all pitching well right now—Garrett Crochet, Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello. Their late-inning combo of Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman is as lockdown as any in baseball. They can manufacture runs, with a balanced lineup that ranks fourth in batting average and sixth in stolen bases. Alex Cora has proven his postseason chops, between winning the World Series in 2018 and making a surprise run to the ALCS in 2021.
Why They Won’t: There are a lot of young players in this lineup who haven’t been tested at this level yet, and several of them struggled to hit down the stretch. And even Fenway Park couldn’t make these Red Sox a power threat, as they finished 15th for home runs.
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS
Odds: (+1800)
Record: 88-74
August/September: 35-20
Why They’ll Win: A franchise in Cleveland where ownership gives up on them, selling off pieces at the trade deadline, then turns on the juice and comes barrelling down the stretch. It’s like it could be a movie. Oh wait, it was—Major League. We all know how movies end. Cleveland has this generation’s most underrated star in Jose Ramirez and an outstanding bullpen
Why They Won’t: Great stories work better in Hollywood than in the real world. In the real world, Ramirez can only carry a team so far, and previous Octobers have shown that the Guardians’ lack of a big-time ace just puts too much pressure on the bullpen over an extended period of time. Maybe this carpet ride could stretch as far as the ALCS. But when you rank 28th in the majors for runs scored with no discernible offensive plan beyond “Save us Jose”, you run into limitations.
DETROIT TIGERS
Odds: (+2000)
Record: 87-75
August/September: 23-29
Why They’ll Win: Aces loom large in October and is there any one you’d rather give the ball to than Tarik Skubal, the likely repeat Cy Young Award winner? Managers also loom large—A.J. Hinch has won a World Series with Houston and oversaw last year’s Tiger run to the Division Series. Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson each hit 30-plus homers in the vast expanse of Comerica Park.
Why They Won’t: We can start with that August/September record, the only one on this list that’s below .500, and the worst of it came at the end. The Tigers are backpedaling into the playoffs at breakneck speed. They also have no notable strengths as a team. Ranking 10th in the majors for home runs is nice, especially in Comerica, but that’s their best composite ranking in any notable team category. Skubal can’t pitch every game.
CINCINNATI REDS
Odds: (+3000)
Record: 83-79
August/September: 26-26
Why They’ll Win: The Reds have frontline starting pitching with Andrew Abbott and Hunter Greene. They have a proven winner in the dugout with Terry Francona. They have the game’s most electrifying young player in shortstop Elly De La Cruz. And while they might be .500 over the last two months, they are the only team in the National League field that’s been playing truly meaningful games for the past few weeks.
Why They Won’t: Have you looked at those won-loss records? A mediocre 83 wins, and meaningful stretch drive or not, Cincinnati actually played below that level over the last two months. Their making the playoffs was more the product of the New York Mets collapsing. In spite of playing in a great hitters’ park, the Reds are still just 14th in the majors for runs scored.
CONCLUSION
Whose strengths do you find most compelling? What weaknesses are the ones you can’t overlook? For me, I’m riding with the following picks:
*The Phillies to win the World Series
*The Yankees to win the American League pennant
*Titanic LCS battles between the Phils and Brewers, and the Yanks and Mariners.
*Philadelphia’s odds make them to low a value to be a good betting proposition. New York and Milwaukee offer the best combination of decent value combined with the likelihood to win. And if you like Boston, that 18-1 price means now is the time to strike, taking your chances that they can get by New York this week.
We’re off and running in October! This space will return on Friday to recap the four Wild-Card Round matchups, and then again on Saturday morning to preview the Division Series.