MLB Notebook: Los Angeles Dodgers Preview
One of the great eras of Dodger baseball—the Dave Roberts Era that began in 2016—hit its high point last season. It was the second World Series title Los Angeles has won since ’16, but with the first one coming in the shortened 2020 season, it was a championship Roberts needed to get a monkey off his back. Now, the Dodgers aim for something the franchise has never done—win a repeat crown.
Here’s our overview of the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers:
POWER
Shohei Ohtani hit 54 home runs last year and slugged .604, en route to the MVP award. What’s more, there’s no reason not to expect something at least close to that again this season. Mookie Betts will play shortstop full-time this year and delivers 30-HR power. Teoscar Hernandez does the same in rightfield, emerging as one of the game’s better home run hitters last year.
Then there’s Freddie Freeman, the first baseman whose power surge electrified everyone outside of New York during last year’s World Series. Freeman consistently hits the mid-20s for long balls. Max Muncy is at third and will likely end up in the same range. Will Smith, one of the National League’s most productive catchers, is good for 20 or so dingers.
And in a case where the rich could get richer, Los Angeles has picked up Michael Conforto play leftfield. A career that looked so promising as a Met back in 2015 went sideways due to injuries, but the persistent Conforto hit 21 homers in San Francisco last year.
All of this is the long way of saying that if you’re watching a Dodger game and they’re at the plate, the guy in the box is probably a home run threat.
GETTING ON BASE
Even more impressive than the power display—and what separates Los Angeles in a league where most teams have a few home run threats—is the ability of those power hitters to get on base. Ohtani bats around .300 and also stole 59 bases last year. Betts posts on-base percentages in the high .300s and steals a few bags himself. Freeman is a .300 hitter and his OBPs over the last three years average out to close to .400.
While Muncy doesn’t hit for average, his OBP is consistently a 100-125 points higher than whatever he bats. Smith and Hernandez will likely fall in the .340 range. And Tommy Edman, hero of last year’s NLCS, can steal bases.
STARTING ROTATION
Over the years, Roberts has had to manage around some rotations that were either flawed, injury-riddled, or both. Last year was no different. This year’s group of starting pitchers is interesting.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the ace, but he has to stay health—only 18 starts last season. Blake Snell is a two-time Cy Young Award winner, but also prone to ups and downs. Tyler Glasnow looked to be an emerging ace in Tampa before Tommy John surgery derailed him early in 2022. Glasnow has been gradually coming back and gets a chance to revive his career in L.A.
Depth continues to be a problem, but it’s looking like Ohtani might give pitching another go—something he gave up on after elbow surgery as an Angel. We’ll also see what rookie Roki Sasaki can do.
BULLPEN
The pen is another area that Roberts usually has had to manage around. While this is the hardest part of any team to predict in March, the Dodger bullpen this season looks as deep and as stable as any they’ve had in recent years. Tanner Scott handled closing duties in Miami and San Diego last year and should be fine taking care of the ninth inning. Kirby Yates has pitched well the last couple of years. Blake Treinen and Alex Vesia were excellent and are back in the fold. The same goes for Evan Phillips and Brusdar Graterol, although both need to get healthy.
OUTLOOK
Is there a reason to overthink this? Why wouldn’t we just assume the Dodgers will make their 13th straight playoff trip, with the only question being where they’re seeded, how healthy they’ll be, and what midseason moves they’ll make? Should we just pencil them in for 100-plus wins for the sixth time under Roberts (seven, if you want to give them credit for what they were on pace to do in 2020)? Even in a competitive NL West, why not just assume Los Angeles wins it for the 12th time since 2012?
There’s no reason not to assume any of these things. The only question is where you stand on that 104.5 Over/Under win prop the betting markets are putting out. That’s a tougher question that I’ll settle between now and Opening Day.