MLB Notebook: League Championship Series Preview

League Championship Series play begins tonight. The Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners will get us going with games on Sunday night and then early evening on Monday. The National League, with the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers, kick into action Monday and Tuesday night. We preview both series, exploring where each team can find edges, who the key players are, and what the betting markets think.

Read our free 20-page download, The LCS Chronicles Vol. 1 (1969-80), about the  formative era that made this round a part of the American sports landscape.
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AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

(1)Toronto – (2)Seattle
Favorite: Blue Jays (-120)
These two franchises came into Major League Baseball together in 1977. Beyond those shared origins, they’re only notable crisscross came in 2022, when the Mariners went north of the border and won a Wild-Card Series in the first year of our current best two-of-three format in the opening round. Toronto dismantled New York Yankee pitching in winning the Division Series. Seattle survived a five-game thriller with Detroit.

Toronto’s Edge: The Blue Jays hit for average much better than the Mariners. They did so all year along and Toronto torched New York for an astonishing .338 batting average. While the continued absence of Bo Bichette is significant, everyone in the Blue Jay lineup is hot right now. By contrast, Seattle had to win a couple of pitcher’s duels to advance, and their offense is heavily dependent on Cal Raleigh’s power.

Seattle’s Edge: Mariner pitching is much deeper than what the Blue Jays have, and the injury situation continues to work in Seattle’s favor. They get starter Bryan Woo back for this round, giving them a reliable five-man rotation (including Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, and George Kirby). They only need to use four starters in this best-of-seven round, so that means one arm can go to a bullpen that is already deep. Basically, there is never a point, regardless of situation, where the M’s have to worry about who’s on the mound. By contrast, the Blue Jay rotation lacks depth and so does their bullpen.

How the Mariners Can Mitigate The Blue Jay Edge: To reduce the gap in offensive firepower, Seattle has got to get some production from Randy Arozarena and Julio Rodriguez at the top of the order. Raleigh swung the bat well in the Division Series, but he can’t do everything. Josh Naylor had some moments and that certainly helps. Where Seattle has made up for some of their offensive shortcomings this year is by stealing bases. That’s where Arozarena and J-Rod can make a difference. They didn’t produce against the Tigers. They need to against the Jays.

How the Blue Jays Can Mitigate the Mariner’s Pitching Edge: At the start of the postseason, this space’s assessment of Toronto’s pitching was that they had arms who had decent years but were capable of being aces. Kevin Gausman was one example. He pitched like an ace in a brilliant Game 1 start against the Yankees. A couple of big-time outings from Gausman can be just what a short bullpen needs. Shane Bieber is another example. He did not pitch well, unable to hold a 6-1 lead in the Blue Jays’ one loss of the Division Series. With Jose Berrios hurt, Gausman, Bieber, and young Trey Yesevage, whose hard throwing flummoxed New York, all need to go deep into games and not tax a limited bullpen.

Pick: Who you like to win the series depends on how you answer two questions. Who is most likely to reduce the opponent’s advantage while maximizing their own? And whose edge is more important if all things just hold to form? I answer Seattle on both counts. Mariners in 6.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

(1)Milwaukee – (3)LA Dodgers
Favorite: Dodgers (-210)
We have a rematch of the 2018 NLCS, an exciting series won by the Dodgers in seven games. This time around, Los Angeles is such a heavy favorite that we have to ask a question that seems completely unfair given Milwaukee’s status as the team with MLB’s best record—do the Brewers even have a chance? While betting markets see the ALCS as close to even, this one is seen as a mismatch. Thus, our preview format will lay out all of Los Angeles’ strengths and then look at possible paths Milwaukee might have.

L.A.’s Elite Frontline Talent: In the biggest games, stars have to step up and take over, and no team in baseball has more options to do so than the Dodgers. Shohei Ohtani is the star among stars, able to dominate a game with both his bat and on the mound. Mookie Betts is a surefire Hall of Famer who dominated the Wild-Card Series against Cincinnati. Teoscar Hernandez is a big-time home run hitter whose’ three-run jack late in Game 1 against Philadelphia turned that series on its head. Max Muncy gets on base and hits for power. Will Smith, even limited by injury, is one of the game’s most productive catchers. Yoshinobu Yamomoto is an elite starter. These players alone, if they’re humming, can carry the Dodgers home.

L.A’.s Supporting Cast: In the biggest games, when stars are held in check, the best teams have role players who play big and can break an opponent’s heart. Los Angeles had proven options here too. Kiki Hernandez and Tommy Edman are both proven October hitters, and both have already made an impact in this year’s postseason. It would surprise no one if Andy Pages had a big series. On the pitching side, Tyler Glasnow’s return to form, has given manager Dave Roberts another option in the rotation and the pen, both roles in which Glasnow excelled in against the Phillies. And to show that sometimes the rich just keep getting richer, Roki Sasaki is emerging as a closer. It’s the kind of surprise breakout from a young player that usually rides through an entire postseason.

Can Milwaukee Pitching Do It? While the Brewers have a well-balanced offense that we’ll get to, it’s difficult to see them winning any kind of a slugfest with the Dodger stars. Therefore, their arms need to find a way to keep them in games. Milwaukee has a deep bullpen that’s extremely tough on the back end, with Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill. Manager Pat Murphy has more than a few options in the middle. But all of that gets a lot easier if rotation ace Freddy Peralta can give him two great starts. Peralta gave one against the Cubs but got hit hard his second time out. We need to see a Peralta have the kind of series that could win him NLCS MVP if the Crew is going do this.

Can Milwaukee’s Offense Apply Pressure? The Brewers don’t hit home runs, but they make consistent contact, and they run the bases. If we presume a positive answer to the question above, the ability of a team to keep knocking singles, stealing bases, and keeping the heat on can start to take on a magnified importance. Singles, speed, and deep pitching are a nice formula for beating a superior opponent, and Milwaukee has all three in spades.

Pick: Do you believe in the Brewer path to an upset? They work the formula as well as anyone, but I’m not seeing it. I didn’t believe in the Dodgers when the postseason started, but I’ve changed my mind. Seeing Glasnow pitch like he used to back in his Tampa days, and seeing Sasaki stabilize the late innings for the bullpen have been an eye opener. Right now, I just think Los Angeles is too good. Dodgers in 4.

LOOKING AHEAD

We’ll recap these series after they’re both ever. That won’t happen until at least Friday, and that presumes a circumstance–concurrent sweeps in both leagues–that has never happened since the LCS round went to a best-of-seven in 1985. It could extend as long as the following Tuesday, which would be October 21. Whenever we know the pennant winners, we’ll be here to look at the reasons why. Regardless of when they end, the World Series starts on Friday, October 24 and we’ll also have a preview of the Fall Classic.

In the meantime, as we enjoy watching these games, this space will focus on the NFL in the coming week, with eight divisional check-ins, as we assess each team after six weeks.

Don’t forget to check  out The LCS Chronicles Vol. 1 (1969-80)
CLICK HERE TO LEARN MORE AND DOWNLOAD