MLB Notebook: Chicago Cubs Preview

The Cubs made a managerial change last year, moving on from David Ross and raiding division rival Milwaukee for Craig Counsell. It didn’t make a difference on the field, as Chicago posted its second straight 83-79 season. The last playoff trip for the Cubbies was the COVID-shortened year of 2020. The last time they made the playoffs in a full season was 2018. Is this the year they return?

Here’s our overview of the Chicago Cubs:

POWER

Chicago made one of the big trade acquisitions of the offseason, getting rightfielder Kyle Tucker away from Houston. Over a three-year cycle, Tucker has averaged 27 homers a year, and that’s with only playing half of last season due to injury. If he’s healthy, Tucker should hit 30-plus home runs and slug over .500.

Dansby Swanson has good power for a shortstop, consistently averaging around 20 homers a season, although his slugging percentages aren’t very good. Ian Happ is a steady contributor with power in the same range. Michael Busch hit 21 homers last year. This was also Busch’s first year of notable playing time. Virtually any theory—that he was a flash-in-the-pan, that he’s only going to get better, or that this is what he is—can be plausible right now. Which theory plays out will tell us a lot about the Cubbie offense.

Seiya Suzuki is at DH and has been very consistent at settling in the 15-20 HR range with 60-70 RBIs. Chicago also signed Justin Turner. He’s 40-years-old, but has still been at least respectable with his power in recent years. Turner can play some first base, do a little DHing, and he’s also a fallback at third base if rookie Matt Shaw doesn’t pan out.

GETTING ON BASE

Suzuki is a patient hitter who has averaged a .354 OBP over the past three seasons. I often cite the three-year averages in the previews and Suzuki is one of the most consistent I’ve seen. He’ll hit around .270, have an OBP hovering about .350, and hit the aforementioned 15-20 dingers. Book it.

Happ is also steady at getting on base, with a good batting eye turning .250 batting averages into .350 OBPs. Nico Hoerner at second base is steady in this area, and Tucker—one of the game’s better all-around hitters, gets on base consistently.

STARTING PITCHING

This is a good rotation and if Shota Imanaga’s first year was the real thing, it’s an ideal one. Imanaga posted a 2.91 ERA in 29 starts, giving Counsell a legitimate ace at the top. Justin Steele isn’t far behind, usually keeping his ERA in the low 3s. While Jameson Taillon might not repeat his career-year numbers of 2024 (3.27 ERA), he’s still a steadying force in the middle of the rotation. Javier Assad pitched well in his 16 starts last year and once he gets back from an oblique injury, will be a regular rotation member. Matthew Boyd has done a mix of starting and relieving. Last year, he got eight starts in Cleveland and finished with a 2.72 ERA. He gets the chance to be a regular rotation member.

BULLPEN

The Cubs and Astros clearly had a trade pipeline last winter. Separate from the Tucker trade, Chicago also acquired closer Ryan Pressly from Houston. Pressly has been steady, if unspectacular. Porter Hodge was spectacular in his rookie campaign last year, finishing with a 1.88 ERA. After that, the pen is a load of question marks. Counsell, when he managed the Brewers, was always good at piecing together spare parts to create a deep bullpen. He’s got to find a way to reprise that on the North Side.

OUTLOOK

As a believer in Counsell, I was disappointed in the Cubs last season. But it was his first year, the team has made some significant acquisitions, and I think optimism should still be in the order of the day for the Wrigley faithful. Betting markets tend to agree, with the Over/Under on wins being posted at 87.5. This is the first NL Central preview I’ve written, so I reserve the right to change my mind—but sitting here today, I’m going Over, and will likely pick Chicago to win the division.