MLB Notebook: Boston Red Sox Preview
It’s a mark of how far the Boston Red Sox have fallen from their dominant 2018 World Series title run—their fourth championship of the still-young 21st century—that last year’s .500 season had to be seen a moderate success, all things considered. Of course, all things generally aren’t considered in this intense market, and the Fenway Faithful are looking for their first winning season since the ALCS run of 2021.
Here’s our overview of the Red Sox:
POWER
Boston has players who can hit the long ball. Rafael Devers continues to be one of the most consistent third basemen in the game, and is typically in the 25-30 home run neighborhood. How serious his lingering shoulder injury is will be a big deal for the Red Sox in the early going. Triston Casas missed much of last year, but the first baseman had a breakout 24-homer season in 2023. A young player, it’s reasonable to think good health restores that trajectory.
Jarren Duran had a terrific year last season and the leftfielder hit 21 homers. Even centerfielder Ceddane Rafaela, generally unproductive at the plate, hit 15 home runs.
That brings us to the splashy new acquisition. Boston signed Alex Bregman late in the offseason. Not only that, but they’re taking the former Houston third baseman and moving him to second base. Bregman is another 25-homer guy in a typical year, and if Boston can get that kind of production out of second base, it would be a boon.
Really, everyone in this lineup has at least some power. Masataka Yoshida at DH, Connor Wong behind the plate, and Wilyer Abreu in right can all expect to float in the 15-homer range.
GETTING ON BASE
Duran proved to be a major ignitor for the offense, posting a .342 on-base percentage and stealing 34 bases. Devers is a complete player, and his OBPs are usually around .350. When healthy in ’23, Casas was also a complete offensive threat, his OBP exceeding the .350 threshold.
Yoshida is consistent hitting for average and drawing walks. Abreu was the same last year although he’s someone it’s worth keeping an eye on for a potential slide—2024 was his first notable production.
That brings us to Bregman again. Getting on base is the big question mark. His OBP dropped sharply last year, to a meager .316. He’s still only 30-years-old, so age shouldn’t be a hindrance to bouncing back. But making a difficult position switch defensively could be a distraction.
And that brings us to the biggest X-factor of all, shortstop Trevor Story. Whether it’s getting on base or hitting for power, the best version of Story could make a major difference for the Red Sox. But he’s been in Boston for three years and has mostly been injured the entire time. Moreover, his last good full season was in 2019. Even if he does stay healthy, how do we know he’s still good?
STARTING PITCHING
Tanner Houck had always shown flashes of what he could do, both in the bullpen and spot-starting. Last year, Houck put it all together. He made 30 starts and finished with a 3.12 ERA. The Red Sox also made a couple of interesting moves, picking Garrett Crochet from the White Sox and Walker Buehler from the Dodgers. Crochet finished with a 3.58 ERA in 32 starts for a historically awful team last season. Buehler looks to be healthy for the first time in three years and pitched well in NLCS and World Series starts for L.A. last October.
Brayan Bello hasn’t lived up to the hype that accompanied him to the majors, but he’s still a respectable mid-rotation arm. The health and effectiveness of Lucas Gioloto and Kutter Crawford will decide if the rotation has any depth.
BULLPEN
Boston is going to rely on Liam Hendrick to close. Hendrick has pitched precisely five innings in two years, after an excellent ’22 campaign. They have a good young arm for setup in Justin Slaten and brought in veteran Aroldis Chapman.
The unknown, not just for the pen, but the entire staff, is Garrett Whitlock. He can be a versatile pitcher, capable of spot-starting, doing long relief stints or closing. He’s also usually on the injured list.
OUTLOOK
This is a lineup that has the feel of a glittering façade. There’s a lot of good names there, Alex Cora is a good manager, and if this group of players were on the field, it’s not hard to see them making the playoffs and even doing some damage. What is hard to see is the aforementioned good health. Think about how many players discussed have some significant injury history or an injury currently looming over them. Betting markets are bullish on Boston, with an 87.5 win total. I’m not.