Menu

The AFC’s Four Contenders

If the race for the NFC title looks more like a coronation for Green Bay, the AFC race is wide-open. Four teams are sitting on 10-3. The Notebook takes a look at the AFC’s Big Four…

New England (10-3): The Patriots are pretty much a known commodity at this time. Tom Brady executes the offense with skilled precision and the defense can be had. The latter point has been drawing frequent attention throughout the season and  the Pats are being dismissed as a serious championship contender because of it. The criticisms are fair enough—this unit ranks 10th in the 16-team AFC in allowing points, and the pass-defense is second-worst in the conference. But they will get a healthy Devin McCourty back and they are closer to middle of the conference in terms of getting sacks. Andre Carter has knocked the quarterback down ten times this season. If you combine that, with Bill Belichick’s tactical ability and the possibility that the Pats could play two playoff games in Foxboro with less than ideal conditions for throwing the ball and the defense could survive. And if you got to the Super Bowl against Green Bay (or for that matter New Orleans), is anyone going to discount Belichick’s ability to put something together with two weeks to prepare? I’m not saying the Patriots’ problems aren’t real and its imperative they get homefield advantage, because you don’t want to expose that secondary to a climate-controlled environment like Houston. But maybe we shouldn’t dismiss them as a regular season wonder too quickly.

Baltimore (10-3): Baltimore is tied with Pittsburgh in the AFC North, but holds the tiebreaker, so even if they lose a road game at either San Diego or Cincinnati, they might still escape with the division title if Pittsburgh loses in San Francisco on Monday Night. The Ravens look like the most complete team in the AFC. The defense is its usual stout self, dominant against both the run and pass, and with an ability to harass the quarterback. John Harbaugh has a decision to make in how to handle Ray Lewis’ foot injury. You can’t be cavalier about the need to win the division and get at least a first-round bye, as the Ravens’ recent playoff history has been marked by having to go on the road too many times. But you certainly want Lewis healthy in January. With a power running back in Ray Rice, along with a solid receiver combo of Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith, I see no reason to change my preseason choice of the Ravens to make it to Indianapolis.

Pittsburgh (10-3): The aforementioned Monday Night visit to Frisco will take place without James Harrison after his suspension by the NFL and it may take place without Ben Roethlisberger, nursing his ankle injury. I would imagine Big Ben will play as that always seems to be how these injury reports with him end up. But it underscores the problem that the Steelers are playing a game that’s must-win for their division title hopes and will be shorthanded and wounded. Roethlisberger carries a below average running game and without him, Pittsburgh is just a team that can’t control the line of scrimmage and can’t protect is quarterback. Add to that the absence of Harrison and the defense’s ability to carry the team will be limited. Terrific coaching job by Mike Tomlin this season, but the Steelers’ shortcomings still make it impossible for me to see this as a Super Bowl team. Then again, I could barely see them as a playoff team in September and they proved me wrong, so we’ll see what else the head coach has in his bag of tricks.

Houston (10-3): The only reason Tomlin can’t be AFC Coach of the Year, is that Gary Kubiak has to get the honor. Just for hiring Wade Phillips to be the defensive coordinator is reason enough and then beating both Atlanta and Cincinnati with a third-string rookie quarterback in T.J. Yates seals the deal. The injury to Matt Schaub is really unfortunate, because if the Texans can throw the ball, then they, and not Baltimore are the most complete team in the conference. The 1-2 running punch of Arian Foster and Ben Tate is dynamite. Tight end Owen Daniels enables a short passing game to control tempo. The health of Andre Johnson’s hamstring will be important and Kubiak is another coach with a decision to make—push Johnson hard in an attempt to get the #1 seed, or make sure the nagging injury is healthy next month. Defensively, Kubiak and Phillips have made due without defensive end Mario Williams and have turned one of the game’s worst pass defenses into one of its best. They run the ball, they play defense, they’ve got a game-breaking receiver and a solid tight end. If they have someone who can deliver them the ball, we’re talking Super Bowl—and a team good enough to beat Green Bay.

 

logosnb

SportsNotebook Featured Products

View Our Complete Catalog

Shop our Catalog

The Sports Notebook Newsletter

TheSportsNotebook.com is home to an extensive archive of sports history articles along with blog posts on contemporary sports.

Shop Our Digital Catalog

History of the Final Four

NCAA Basketball

NCAA Basketball

Super Bowl Past

NFL

NFL

History of the Final Four

NCAA Basketball

NCAA Basketball

Super Bowl Past

NFL

NFL

History of the Final Four

NCAA Basketball

NCAA Basketball

Super Bowl Past

NFL

NFL

SportsNoteBook Articles

Revisiting The 1975 AL MVP Ballot

The 1975 AL MVP vote was historic—the award went to Boston Red Sox centerfielder Fred Lynn in a landslide, but that wasn’t the historic part. Lynn also became the first rookie in either league to win the MVP. And, nearly a half-century later at this writing, he remains the last. Here’s a look at the […]

2006 Boston Celtics: The End Of A Playoff Streak

A trip to the conference finals in 2002 started a run of four straight playoff years for the Celtics during an otherwise dry period of professional basketball in Boston. But the Celts had been progressively moving backward—a second-round loss in 2003, and then first-round exits in 2004 and 2005. The 2006 Boston Celtics continued the […]

Reviewing The 2006 NBA MVP Ballot

The 2006 NBA MVP award went to Steve Nash. It marked the second consecutive year the dynamic point guard from the Phoenix Suns brought home the honor. Who were the other contenders? Did the voters get it right? Here’s a look at the seasons produced by Nash, the rest of the top 5, and some […]

2006 Phoenix Suns: A High-Octane Run To The Conference Finals

Change had come to the desert in 2005. The Suns signed point guard Steve Nash as a free agent. They hired Mike D’Antoni as a head coach. The creative point guard and the coach who believed in a fast-tempo offense made a perfect match. Nash won the MVP award, and Phoenix reached the conference finals. […]

The Finals Run Of The 2006 Dallas Mavericks

The 2006 Dallas Mavericks were a team on the ascent. After drafting Dirk Nowitzki in 1999, the Mavericks had made the playoffs for five straight years. Head coach Don Nelson stepped down and handed the reins over to Avery Johnson. Dallas reached what was then their greatest heights, reaching the NBA Finals. Dirk had a […]

2006 Detroit Pistons: A Disappointing Conference Finals Loss

The 2006 Detroit Pistons came into the season as the power of the Eastern Conference. They had won the NBA title in 2004 and reached Game 7 of the Finals a year earlier. They had another fantastic season in ’06. But this was also the start of a three-year stretch where they consistently looked like […]