NBA Commentary: Six Favorites Hold Serve At Home

 Six favorites in the NBA playoffs stood up and defended their home floor. Somewhat improbably, the two that failed to do so—Denver and Brooklyn who each lost Game 2s—did it in spite of facing wounded adversaries. The sequence of Game 3s starts tonight and goes through Saturday, so today’s NBA commentary will check in on where each series stands. We’ll first summarize each series in a sentence, then go into further detail…

EASTERN CONFERENCE

  • At least the Milwaukee-Miami series is interesting for gamblers, with the Bucks eking out one cover in the first two games.
  • Chicago’s Joakim Noah has a ton of heart and that’s the reason Chicago is alive against Brooklyn.
  • Indiana looks good against Atlanta, but beneath the surface there are some red flag.
  • New York looks like a team ready to get serious, as they’ve locked Boston down defensively.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

  • Oklahoma City’s defense remains deceptively good against inefficient, but feisty, Houston.
  • Memphis can compete with the Los Angeles Clippers, but if they couldn’t win Game 2 where exactly does their road win(s) come from?
  • Denver’s rebounding “effort” was a positive disgrace in letting Golden State back in the series.
  • If Steve Nash isn’t healthier than he appears any hopes of the Los Angeles Lakers competing with San Antonio back in the Staples Center are a pipe dream.

 

Now on with more detail…

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Milwaukee-Miami: The Bucks are showing up to compete, and have hung with the Heat in the first half for two straight games now. They also shot 50 percent from the floor in Game 2, a stat that should bother Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra. If Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis hadn’t gone 0-for-10 from three-point range, it could have been tighter than the 98-86 final. At the very least, Milwaukee rewarded its bettors by covering the 14.5 point line.

Ultimately though, I just don’t want to read anything in this series. If Miami looks good…well, they’re facing the worst team in the playoffs, and one that’s worse than at least two non-playoff teams from the West (Utah & Dallas). If they have problems—like some less-than-intense defense in Game 2—it’s just something for Spoelstra to use to keep his team motivated.

Chicago-Brooklyn: You knew the Bulls would come out with a lot of defensive effort in Game 2 after they were embarrassed in the opener. What we didn’t know was that a wounded Joakim Noah would dig deep and join Luol Deng and Carlos Boozer in getting double digits on the boards. Even that might have been overcome, but Brooklyn just did not answer, and the Bulls got a 90-82 win.

Brooklyn  is a team with plenty of its rebounders of its own, starting with Brook Lopez and including Reggie Evans and Andray Blatche. The Nets didn’t meet the intensity that the entire world knew the Bulls would bring.

I still believe Brooklyn is going to win this series—for all the talk of road teams stealing homecourt advantage when they get a road win, let’s keep in mind that sweeping a presumably better team in three home games isn’t exactly easy. In all likelihood, Chicago’s going to need one more win the Barclays Center to win the series, and I don’t think they’ll get it. But the pressure is now on the Nets as they head to the Windy City needing to get a road win.

Atlanta-Indiana: Yes, the Pacers have looked fantastic on the offensive end in this series. The 113-98 blowout win Game 2 means they’re averaging 110 ppg and winning by an average margin of 16 points. But for the second straight game I don’t like the defense. The Hawks shot 49 percent from the floor and after Indiana spent the season as the best defensive team I the NBA, that’s something to be concerned about.

Right now it might not matter, with Paul George playing his second straight great game, knocking down 27 points and grabbing eight rebounds. On the Atlanta side, Al Horford and Josh Smith were again pedestrian, combining for 29 points/16 rebounds, almost exactly what they did in the opener. It appears Horford and Smith have embraced their city’s tradition of seeing its sports stars doing sort-of okay in the playoffs, but never really stepping up. If they both come to play in the middle games, the Indiana defensive laxity will become an issue.

Boston-New York: The Knicks are playing some lockdown defense right now, holding the Celtics to 37 percent shooting in a decisive 87-71 win in Game 2. Carmelo Anthony looks like a player who wants to lead his team in these playoffs. His 34-point night on Tuesday gives him 70 for the playoffs, and he’s shooting 24-for-53 from the floor. That might not sound sizzling, but 45 percent on that type of volume is very effective and New York’s not going to be stopped short of the conference finals if they D it up like this and Melo continues to answer the bell.

I picked Boston to win this series because of their ability to defend the three-point line. I expect the Celtics to play well back in Boston and certainly if they win two home games we could have a series again. But, picking up on a point from further up, I don’t know that thinking the Celts are going to sweep Games 3,4 & 6 in the Garden is realistic, even if they do figure out their offensive problems. New York’s played well up in Boston this season, and the ability of the Knicks to defend their home floor early—quite literally in this case—means this one is probably not going further than five games.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Houston-Oklahoma City: The Rockets came out and competed last night in Game 2, and though they lost 105-102, it was an immensely entertaining game to watch. The effort level could be seen in the 57-41 rebounding edge they enjoyed on the Thunder, in spite of Houston not being a particularly big team. But Omer Asik played like the center he is, with 14 rebounds, James Harden grabbed 11 and point guard Patrick Beverley chased down 12. Note to the OkC guards—try boxing out and hustling down long rebounds.

But what the Thunder do is keep playing defense. They held Houston a hair under 40 percent from the floor. Though Harden got 36, he went 9-for-24 from the field. The high score totals are a product of pace, not offensive quality and it’s Oklahoma City that’s doing the superior job on the defensive end.

This series may have an injury factor—both Jeremy Lin and Russell Westbrook are listed as questionable for Game 3 in Houston. “Questionable” almost always means a player is going to play, especially at this time of year, but with Westbrook’s knee being banged up, it’s something to keep an eye on.

Memphis-LA Clippers: The Grizzlies hung in all the way, and like in Game 1, they made some pushes at times when it looked like Los Angeles was going to pull away. The teams were virtually even on the boards. The huge Clips’ edge from Game 1 became the statistically insignificant 40-38 margin in Game 2. All Memphis had to do was convert free throws. They got 34 attempts to LA’s 22, but the Grizzlies only made 23 of their foul shots and gave away their edge. It left the door open for Chris Paul to knock down a game-winner at the buzzer in a 93-91 final.

Monday night’s win at Staples started a great two-day sequence for the Clippers. The following night, on a fresh episode of NCIS Los Angeles, L.L. Cool J’s character is desperate to find a babysitter so he can go to a Clipper’s game. That scriptwriters are choosing the Clips over the Lakers for these shows is a surefire mark that Lob City has taken over the city from Showtime.

Golden State-Denver: When I wrapped up the Game 1s, I said without hesitation that David Lee’s injury meant Golden State had no shot to win this series. Well, unless that is, Denver decides to make no effort at rebounding the basketball. Maybe that’s harsh, but when I see the Nuggets outrebounded 36-26, with both centers, Kosta Koufous and JaVale McGee as absolute non-factors, what else is there to think?

It gets worse with the fact that Golden State didn’t leave many rebounds to be had. The Warriors shot an astonishing 65 percent from the floor. Steph Curry had 30 points and 13 assists. Klay Thompson had his second game over 20 points and rookie Harrison Barnes was the man who stepped up, scoring 24. I still expect Denver to win one of the middle games in San Francisco, then close this series out in six, but the lack of rebounding intensity was disappointing.

LA Lakers-San Antonio: Tony Parker is owning Steve Nash in the backcourt right now. Parker knocked down 28 points last night, his second straight good game of the series. Nash only has nine assists combined in the first two games. Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol, after looking good in the opener, were more pedestrian in Game 2.

Los Angeles is to the West what Boston is to the East—the proud franchise with veterans that we know can compete, and just wonder if it can click. In that light, I wouldn’t call myself shocked if the Lakers find a way to win two back at home and make this a series. But if they were going to win it, they realistically needed one in the opener. And like Boston, it appears they missed their best chance in Game 1.

THE VIEW FROM VEGAS

Three teams have rewarded bettors with 2-0 starts to their series. Golden State has been golden to gamblers, with easy pointspread covers and one outright win, if anyone took a shot at them on the moneyline. San Antonio and Indiana have also covered both. New York is closer—I’ve officially got Game 1 as a push at (-7) in an 85-78 final, although it dropped to that point fairly late. So my records show the Knicks at 1-0-1 against the line, others may have this series even at the betting window.

Miami and Oklahoma City’s splits aren’t surprising—each are having to deal with big numbers, and the Thunder against a pretty good opponent.

LOOKING AHEAD TO GAME 3

Here’s the TV schedule for the Game 3s…

Thursday: Miami-Milwaukee (7 PM ET, TNT), Brooklyn-Chicago (8:30 PM ET, NBA-TV), LA Clippers-Memphis (9:30 PM ET, TNT)

Friday: New York-Boston (8 PM ET, ESPN), San Antonio-LA Lakers (10:30 PM ET, ESPN), Denver-Golden State (10:30 PM ET, ESPN2).

Saturday:  Indiana-Atlanta (7 PM ET, ESPN), Oklahoma City-Houston (9:30 PM ET, ESPN)

In case you’re wondering about Saturday afternoon, the league slipped a pair of Game 4 matchups in that timeslot. TNT will have a doubleheader of Brooklyn-Chicago and LA Clippers-Memphis that tips at 2 PM ET. TheSportsNotebook’s NBA commentary will return Sunday morning to again overview all eight series.

 

Six favorites in the NBA playoffs stood up and defended their home floor. Somewhat improbably, the two that failed to do so—Denver and Brooklyn who each lost Game 2s—did it in spite of facing wounded adversaries. The sequence of Game 3s starts tonight and goes through Saturday, so today’s NBA commentary will check in on where each series stands. We’ll first summarize each series in a sentence, then go into further detail…

EASTERN CONFERENCE
*At least the Milwaukee-Miami series is interesting for gamblers, with the Bucks eking out one cover in the first two games.
*Chicago’s Joakim Noah has a ton of heart and that’s the reason Chicago is alive against Brooklyn.
*Indiana looks good against Atlanta, but beneath the surface there are some red flag.
*New York looks like a team ready to get serious, as they’ve locked Boston down defensively.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
*Oklahoma City’s defense remains deceptively good against inefficient, but feisty, Houston.
*Memphis can compete with the Los Angeles Clippers, but if they couldn’t win Game 2 where exactly does their road win(s) come from?
*Denver’s rebounding “effort” was a positive disgrace in letting Golden State back in the series.
*If Steve Nash isn’t healthier than he appears any hopes of the Los Angeles Lakers competing with San Antonio back in the Staples Center are a pipe dream.

Now on with more detail…

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Milwaukee-Miami: The Bucks are showing up to compete, and have hung with the Heat in the first half for two straight games now. They also shot 50 percent from the floor in Game 2, a stat that should bother Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra. If Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis hadn’t gone 0-for-10 from three-point range, it could have been tighter than the 98-86 final. At the very least, Milwaukee rewarded its bettors by covering the 14.5 point line.

Ultimately though, I just don’t want to read anything in this series. If Miami looks good…well, they’re facing the worst team in the playoffs, and one that’s worse than at least two non-playoff teams from the West (Utah & Dallas). If they have problems—like some less-than-intense defense in Game 2—it’s just something for Spoelstra to use to keep his team motivated.

Chicago-Brooklyn: You knew the Bulls would come out with a lot of defensive effort in Game 2 after they were embarrassed in the opener. What we didn’t know was that a wounded Joakim Noah would dig deep and join Luol Deng and Carlos Boozer in getting double digits on the boards. Even that might have been overcome, but Brooklyn just did not answer, and the Bulls got a 90-82 win.

Brooklyn  is a team with plenty of its rebounders of its own, starting with Brook Lopez and including Reggie Evans and Andray Blatche. The Nets didn’t meet the intensity that the entire world knew the Bulls would bring.

I still believe Brooklyn is going to win this series—for all the talk of road teams stealing homecourt advantage when they get a road win, let’s keep in mind that sweeping a presumably better team in three home games isn’t exactly easy. In all likelihood, Chicago’s going to need one more win the Barclays Center to win the series, and I don’t think they’ll get it. But the pressure is now on the Nets as they head to the Windy City needing to get a road win.

Atlanta-Indiana: Yes, the Pacers have looked fantastic on the offensive end in this series. The 113-98 blowout win Game 2 means they’re averaging 110 ppg and winning by an average margin of 16 points. But for the second straight game I don’t like the defense. The Hawks shot 49 percent from the floor and after Indiana spent the season as the best defensive team I the NBA, that’s something to be concerned about.

Right now it might not matter, with Paul George playing his second straight great game, knocking down 27 points and grabbing eight rebounds. On the Atlanta side, Al Horford and Josh Smith were again pedestrian, combining for 29 points/16 rebounds, almost exactly what they did in the opener. It appears Horford and Smith have embraced their city’s tradition of seeing its sports stars doing sort-of okay in the playoffs, but never really stepping up. If they both come to play in the middle games, the Indiana defensive laxity will become an issue.

Boston-New York: The Knicks are playing some lockdown defense right now, holding the Celtics to 37 percent shooting in a decisive 87-71 win in Game 2. Carmelo Anthony looks like a player who wants to lead his team in these playoffs. His 34-point night on Tuesday gives him 70 for the playoffs, and he’s shooting 24-for-53 from the floor. That might not sound sizzling, but 45 percent on that type of volume is very effective and New York’s not going to be stopped short of the conference finals if they D it up like this and Melo continues to answer the bell.

I picked Boston to win this series because of their ability to defend the three-point line. I expect the Celtics to play well back in Boston and certainly if they win two home games we could have a series again. But, picking up on a point from further up, I don’t know that thinking the Celts are going to sweep Games 3,4 & 6 in the Garden is realistic, even if they do figure out their offensive problems. New York’s played well up in Boston this season, and the ability of the Knicks to defend their home floor early—quite literally in this case—means this one is probably not going further than five games.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Houston-Oklahoma City: The Rockets came out and competed last night in Game 2, and though they lost 105-102, it was an immensely entertaining game to watch. The effort level could be seen in the 57-41 rebounding edge they enjoyed on the Thunder, in spite of Houston not being a particularly big team. But Omer Asik played like the center he is, with 14 rebounds, James Harden grabbed 11 and point guard Patrick Beverley chased down 12. Note to the OkC guards—try boxing out and hustling down long rebounds.

But what the Thunder do is keep playing defense. They held Houston a hair under 40 percent from the floor. Though Harden got 36, he went 9-for-24 from the field. The high score totals are a product of pace, not offensive quality and it’s Oklahoma City that’s doing the superior job on the defensive end.

This series may have an injury factor—both Jeremy Lin and Russell Westbrook are listed as questionable for Game 3 in Houston. “Questionable” almost always means a player is going to play, especially at this time of year, but with Westbrook’s knee being banged up, it’s something to keep an eye on.

Memphis-LA Clippers: The Grizzlies hung in all the way, and like in Game 1, they made some pushes at times when it looked like Los Angeles was going to pull away. The teams were virtually even on the boards. The huge Clips’ edge from Game 1 became the statistically insignificant 40-38 margin in Game 2. All Memphis had to do was convert free throws. They got 34 attempts to LA’s 22, but the Grizzlies only made 23 of their foul shots and gave away their edge. It left the door open for Chris Paul to knock down a game-winner at the buzzer in a 93-91 final.

Monday night’s win at Staples started a great two-day sequence for the Clippers. The following night, on a fresh episode of NCIS Los Angeles, L.L. Cool J’s character is desperate to find a babysitter so he can go to a Clipper’s game. That scriptwriters are choosing the Clips over the Lakers for these shows is a surefire mark that Lob City has taken over the city from Showtime.

Golden State-Denver: When I wrapped up the Game 1s, I said without hesitation that David Lee’s injury meant Golden State had no shot to win this series. Well, unless that is, Denver decides to make no effort at rebounding the basketball. Maybe that’s harsh, but when I see the Nuggets outrebounded 36-26, with both centers, Kosta Koufous and JaVale McGee as absolute non-factors, what else is there to think?

It gets worse with the fact that Golden State didn’t leave many rebounds to be had. The Warriors shot an astonishing 65 percent from the floor. Steph Curry had 30 points and 13 assists. Klay Thompson had his second game over 20 points and rookie Harrison Barnes was the man who stepped up, scoring 24. I still expect Denver to win one of the middle games in San Francisco, then close this series out in six, but the lack of rebounding intensity was disappointing.

LA Lakers-San Antonio: Tony Parker is owning Steve Nash in the backcourt right now. Parker knocked down 28 points last night, his second straight good game of the series. Nash only has nine assists combined in the first two games. Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol, after looking good in the opener, were more pedestrian in Game 2.

Los Angeles is to the West what Boston is to the East—the proud franchise with veterans that we know can compete, and just wonder if it can click. In that light, I wouldn’t call myself shocked if the Lakers find a way to win two back at home and make this a series. But if they were going to win it, they realistically needed one in the opener. And like Boston, it appears they missed their best chance in Game 1.

THE VIEW FROM VEGAS

Three teams have rewarded bettors with 2-0 starts to their series. Golden State has been golden to gamblers, with easy pointspread covers and one outright win, if anyone took a shot at them on the moneyline. San Antonio and Indiana have also covered both. New York is closer—I’ve officially got Game 1 as a push at (-7) in an 85-78 final, although it dropped to that point fairly late. So my records show the Knicks at 1-0-1 against the line, others may have this series even at the betting window.

Miami and Oklahoma City’s splits aren’t surprising—each are having to deal with big numbers, and the Thunder against a pretty good opponent.

LOOKING AHEAD TO GAME 3

Here’s the TV schedule for the Game 3s…

Thursday: Miami-Milwaukee (7 PM ET, TNT), Brooklyn-Chicago (8:30 PM ET, NBA-TV), LA Clippers-Memphis (9:30 PM ET, TNT)

Friday: New York-Boston (8 PM ET, ESPN), San Antonio-LA Lakers (10:30 PM ET, ESPN), Denver-Golden State (10:30 PM ET, ESPN2).

Saturday:  Indiana-Atlanta (7 PM ET, ESPN), Oklahoma City-Houston (9:30 PM ET, ESPN)

In case you’re wondering about Saturday afternoon, the league slipped a pair of Game 4 matchups in that timeslot. TNT will have a doubleheader of Brooklyn-Chicago and LA Clippers-Memphis that tips at 2 PM ET. TheSportsNotebook’s NBA commentary will return Sunday morning to again overview all eight series.