MLB Coverage: Can St. Louis Make It Back To The Series?

Dan Flaherty Uncategorized

The St. Louis Cardinals came within one game of getting to the World Series for the second straight year in 2012, and the way the Fall Classic unfolded, there’s no reason to think the Cards couldn’t have won their second straight, and third since 2006. Can the National League’s proudest franchise do it this year? The SportsNotebook’s MLB coverage today focuses on St. Louis, and then brings in their I-94 rivals in the National League Central, the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs.

St. Louis wins because it has a dominant lineup. They have five players who do everything well—get on base, hit for average, drive the ball for power. That’s Yadier Molina, David Freese, Allen Craig, Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran. The only number here to think about is 35—that’s how old Beltran is and potential aging on the part of the rightfielder is the only possible weak link in this group.

The other three spots in the lineup aren’t exactly problems. Centerfielder John Jay is a classic table-setter, coming off a year where he posted a .373 on-base percentage. The middle infield is where the offensive question marks. But we begin by pointing out that this isn’t an area of strength for a lot of teams, including ones that aren’t as loaded as St. Louis. And we conclude by noting that it might still end up as an area of offensive strength. Pete Kozma will be the shortstop, now that Rafael Furcal is out until September and in very limited at-bats last year, Kozma hit .333. If Matt Carpenter’s defense is enough to put manager Mike Matheny’s mind at rest, Carpenter will take over the second base job and he showed considerable offensive potential a year ago. Depth is provided by Daniel Descalco, who can play any position in the infield.

It’s pitching that will decide whether St. Louis is simply a good team or elevates into the status of World Series contender again. While there are concerns, there’s still more positives then negatives. Adam Wainwright won 14 games with a 3.94 ERA in his first season back from elbow surgery. More important, Wainwright improved as the season wore on. I don’t know if he’ll get back to being the Cy Young contender he was in 2010, but I expect a nice improvement in his overall season numbers.

Jake Westbrook is reliable in the middle of the rotation. The key is going to be the consistency of Jaime Garcia and Lance Lynn. They’re 25 and 27 years old respectively each has had their moments. Garcia was a top starter in 2010 when he posted a 2.70 ERA and Lynn made the All-Star Game a year ago. But Garcia’s been up and down the last two years and Lynn wasn’t nearly as consistent after the All-Star break. With Chris Carpenter gone for the year, and presumably his career, Garcia and Lynn have to become solid #2 and #3 caliber starter consistently. The rotation will likely be filled out by Joe Kelly, who put up a decent 3.53 ERA in 16 starts and you have to like his upside.

St. Louis should be okay in the bullpen. Jason Motte saved 42 games with a 2.75 ERA last year, after coming on strong in the playoff run of 2011 to win the job. Mitchell Boggs is the best of a setup core that isn’t spectacular, but is deep. They might get a reinforcement in the person of rookie Shelby Miller. He’s still a contender for the #5 starter role, but assuming that goes to Kelly, Miller could help the bullpen—he had a 1.32 ERA in his 13 innings of big league work last season.

There’s no reason not to be very high on St. Louis, which is why I find the Las Vegas Over/Under win projection of 86.5 to quite low. Barring a run of injuries that goes beyond the norm, I can’t see this team going any worse than 88-74 and if things click, a 95-win campaign is very realistic. I’m all in the Over for this one.

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Chicago Cubs: No one’s even thinking about contending on the North Side of Chicago. As was the case last year, the speculation is more about what pieces general manager Theo Epstein might obtain for trade chips Matt Garza and Carlos Marmol. Garza is on the DL right now, but expected back in April. If he turns in his usual mid-3s ERA and is healthy at the July 31 trade deadline—something that was not the case a year ago—then he’ll be elsewhere for the stretch drive. And Epstein would surely love to see the up-and-down Marmol get a nice run of closing games and then entice a bullpen-desperate contender to overpay in prospects.

But between now and then, the loyal fans of the North Side would surely like to see some respectable baseball. I can’t say I’d be optimistic. Darwin Barney (2B) and Ian Stewart (3B) are both 28-years-old and yet to do anything that suggests that can be productive full-time players. The same goes for new right fielder Nate Schierholtz, a year older. David DeJesus and Alfonso Soriano are both on the downside of their careers. The only true bright spot in the everyday lineup is shortstop Starlin Castro and even here there’s reason to be nervous—Castro is only 22, but he’s seen his offensive production decline each year of his three-year career. That’s not the trend Cubbie fans were thinking about when he burst on the scene in 2010.

The best hope for success would be if the pitching comes through. Jeff Samardizja has shown he can be a decent big-league starter, but slotting him at #1 (or even #2 when Garza returns) is still beyond his element. Edwin Jackson is a reliable veteran, but the Cubs have to hope he brings some championship intangibles from his run with St. Louis in 2011 that he can pass on to everyone else. Because Scott Feldman and Travis Wood have yet to do anything that suggest they’re more than journeyman starters. The bullpen in front of Marmol is decent, but the odds are that they’ll be entering games early and working from behind a lot.

Chicago’s win projection in Las Vegas is 72.5. Now in spite of my negative comments, if everything came together, I could see the Cubs going as high as 75 wins. But look at the reverse side—is a 62-100 season also realistic? If you say yes, that means there’s a lot more room on the Under side of the number, and that’s where I’m going.

Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers made a surprise run at the playoffs last year, only coming together after they traded Zack Greinke to the Angels and seemed to wave the white flag. The ensuing hot streak kept them in the hunt to the final days and put them on the right side of .500. Winning more than they lose this time around would be a good achievement for manager Ron Roenicke.

Milwaukee’s starting pitching is just not very good. Yovani Gallardo is a steady horse, who’s made 30-plus starts each of the last four years, and had ERAs in the high 3s each time. The problem is, that’s what you want from a #3 starter, not an ace, which is what the Brewers are passing him off as. The fact Gallardo is consistently lit up by St. Louis, only his team’s biggest rival is further argument against “ace” status. There’s possibilities for Marco Estrada and Mike Fiers in the #2 and #3 spots—they had ERAs of 3.64 and 3.74 in 20-plus starts apiece—but the bottom of the rotation has the potential to be a disaster area. The only real hope is for 24-year-old Wily Peralta to win a job and then show that his 2.48 ERA in five starts last year was a sign of things to come.

The offense can always rely on Ryan Braun to bail them out—and he did last year, in a season that was statistically as good as his 2011 MVP year, and arguably more impressive, given that Prince Fielder was no longer in the lineup to support him and there was increased pressure over whether he was guilty of PED use. But if the Brewers want more than just to be bailed out by a star, Rickie Weeks has to get back on track. Weeks had a bad year in 2012 and he’s one of the few Brewers who can be relied on (in a normal year) to get on base consistently and give Braun someone to drive in. If Weeks plays well, he can combine with underrated right fielder Norichika Aokia to set the table.

Besides Braun, the table is cleaned up by Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart on opposite sides of the infield. Hart is out until May, and while he has above average power, he can also be a drag on the lineup due to a low on-base percentage. Ramirez is an ideal all-around hitter, but he’s dealing with some knee problems. A jolt to the offense could be provided by Jonathan Lucroy, the catcher who had a breakout offensive year that was marred only by missed time with a broken hand. And we’ll see what the team gets from shortstop Jean Segura, the prospect who was at the heart of the Greinke deal.

I see more problems than possibilities here. There’s just not much upside with the starting pitching and while the offense is potentially right up there with St. Louis if everything goes well, it’s also got inconsistencies that could drag it down. Closer John Axford is a big question mark—he’s had one great year in 2011 and one disastrous year in 2012—and the bullpen in front of him is an even bigger question mark.

Las Vegas puts Milwaukee’s win number at 80.5, right on the bubble of .500. I see that as overly optimistic. I think the Brewers end up with between 74-79 wins and that puts you Under no matter what.

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