NHL Notebook: Stanley Cup Finals Preview

Florida vs. Edmonton
Betting Odds: Oilers (-120)

Schedule: All games at 8 PM ET on TNT
Wed, June 4 (Edmonton)
Fri, June 6 (Edmonton)
Mon, June 9 (Florida)
Thur, June 12 (Florida)
Sat, June 14 (Edmonton)
Tue, June 17 (Florida)
Fri, June 20 (Edmonton)

There are no mysteries left as we reach the Stanley Cup Finals. The Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers are known commodities. They’ve got 82 regular season games and three playoff rounds behind them, to say nothing of meeting each other for the second straight year in the Finals. This matchup is a highly compelling clash of styles.

Edmonton brings the offensive firepower. They have averaged a little more than four goals per game, the best of any team in the postseason. Connor McDavid is the leading individual points producer, fueled primarily by his passing. Leon Draisaitl, another all-timer, is only a point behind McDavid in the playoffs. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins seems to get stronger as the postseason progresses and Corey Perry has awakened the echoes and scored seven playoff goals. The Oilers are deep in firepower, they take a lot of shots, and put a lot of pressure on an opposing goaltender.

Florida brings the defensive intensity. They’ve allowed just 2.22 goals per game, the best of any team in the postseason. They combine a great goaltender in Sergei Bobrovsky, and their team defense limits his exposure. You don’t get many shots off against the Panthers and when you do, Bobrovsky is stopping them at a 91.2 percent rate in the postseason—the best of any playoff goalie.

Furthermore, both teams are putting up those numbers against opponents who should be well-suited to go up against them. The Oilers faced good defensive teams from Los Angeles, Vegas, and Dallas. At a time of year when defense often has an edge, Edmonton just blew right through quality defenses. The Panthers faced two of the game’s most talented offenses, from Tampa Bay and Toronto. Then, Florida finished it off in the East by outmuscling a Carolina team that had excelled at playing physical.

Something has to give and a place to look is the power play. While both teams are above-average at converting their opportunities with the man advantage, Florida enjoys a significant edge in the penalty kill. The Panthers have stopped 87.9% of opposing power plays during the playoffs, the best in the league. The Oilers are only at 66%, ranking 14th among 16 playoff teams.

Florida is also not without offensive weapons. Sam Bennett has scored ten goals in the playoffs. Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaege, Anton Ludell and Matthew Tkachuk have all scored at least five times. Evan Rodrigues has ten assists. The Panthers don’t have the star power the Oilers do, but Florida is deep in scoring threats.

Is there a counter-argument to make on behalf of Edmonton? Yes. Goaltender Stuart Skinner doesn’t have Bobrovsky’s track record, but Skinner is playing his best hockey right now. His own save rate is a razor-sharp 90.4% and he was at his best in the defeat of Dallas in the Western Conference Finals. If the Oilers are successful in creating a fast-paced game, that will leave both goaltenders exposed. Theirs is hot right now. Edmonton also has a well-earned reputation for responding well to adversity in a series. Without diminishing the mental toughness of the defending champs, it should be noted that Florida hasn’t been put in uncomfortable positions yet, at least not the way the Oilers have.

All of this points to a terrific two weeks of hockey to bring an end to the season. I can’t wait to watch.

Prediction: Florida in 6