NHL Notebook: 2nd Round Recaps

Here’s a breakdown of why each Division Finals series ended as it did. We’ll post them as they conclude:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic Division: Florida over Toronto 4-3
Game 3 was where this series pivoted. The Maple Leafs had defended their home ice and won the first two games. They went south, scored the first two goals and still had a 3-1 lead in the second period. Then, the defensive problems that would bedevil them the rest of the series kicked in. The Panthers rallied to tie it up, then won in overtime. Over the final five games, Florida scored 19 goals—that’s even with getting shut out in Game 6, the last game Toronto won. While the defending champs’ toughness goes on display each time out, we also have to point out that Maple Leaf goalie Anthony Stolarz, who played so well down the stretch, was out for virtually all of this series.

But not all of Toronto’s problems can be dismissed as back luck. Their wealth of offensive talent never get untracked. It’s not just the fact they only scored four goals in the last four games, it’s the fact the best players were not getting shots. Mitch Marner only took eight shots in the entire series. Auston Matthews, John Tavares, and William Nylander were more engaged than that, but not nearly enough to beat an opponent of this caliber. Florida just knows how to take good offenses out of their game. They did it against Tampa Bay in the first round, and they did it again here.

Metropolitan Division: Carolina over Washington 4-1
This series was only marginally competitive. While the Hurricanes’ Game 1 win took overtime, they outshot the Capitals 33-14. While Washington bounced back in Game 2, Carolina thoroughly controlled the middle games on their home ice. They outshot the Caps by a combined 65-43 in Games 3 & 4 and won those two games by a combined 9-2 score, in each one gaining momentum as the game went on. Washington had the better regular season, but Carolina has been the more accomplished team in the playoffs for a few years now, and it showed in this series.

The Caps generally don’t need a lot of shots to score goals but averaging less than 20 per game in the playoffs won’t do. Alex Ovechkin taking less than three shots per game won’t do. In addition to the low number of opportunities, Hurricane goalie Frederik Andersen was fantastic, with a nearly 94 percent save rate. Carolina doesn’t have offensive stars—Andrei Svechnikov’s three goals led the way–but they are balanced and they play physical hockey. While Washington goalie Logan Thompson played well, it wasn’t nearly enough to overcome the Hurricanes’ consistent control of the ice.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Central Division: Dallas over Winnipeg 4-2
In the end, it took Connor Hellebuyck a little too long to find his footing. The Winnipeg goalie, so great in regular seasons, but struggling in the playoffs, finally got into a groove as the series went on. He was brilliant in Games 5 & 6, but by then it was too late to overcome a 3-1 series deficit, the sustained excellence of Dallas counterpart Jake Oettinger, and the Stars finally got a power play goal in overtime of Game 6 to close the series.

The series loss comes in spite of the Jets outshooting the Stars 172-137 for the series, or an average of almost six per game. But Oettinger stopped 93 percent of the shots fired at him, including an epic stop late in Game 6 that may have saved his team’s season. Ultimately though, it was dominance in the middle games that was where this series was won. Mikael Granlund has a Game 4 hat trick, Dallas got decisive wins at home and set themselves up to survive Hellebuyck’s too-late recovery. Nikolaj Ehlers was noble in defeat for Winnipeg, scoring five goals for the series.

Pacific Division: Edmonton over Vegas 4-1
By NHL standards, where most games are tight, this was a posterior-kicking. Vegas’ only win came on a goal with one second to play in Game 3. An Edmonton team not renowned for defense delivered shutouts in Games 4 & 5. While two games went to overtime, one of them—Game 2—had the Golden Knights chasing from behind the whole way. Basically, Vegas took a 2-0 lead in Game 1. Edmonton scored three times in the third period to win it, and the Oilers never looked back.

The Oilers outshot the Golden Knights comfortably, by an average of nearly six per game. No individual Vegas player was a threat. Stuart Skinner started three games in net, spun a 94 percent save rate and had those final two shutouts to close it. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl didn’t score much, but both stars stayed on the attack and combined for nine assists. This concludes a postseason for Vegas where they simply never played well. For Edmonton, they seem to be gaining steam.