NHL Notebook: 1st Round Recaps

As each series ends, we’ll wrap it up with a  concise breakdown of why it turned as it did:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic Division

Toronto over Ottawa 4-2
The Maple Leafs really don’t like to make things easy in the playoffs, do they? Toronto won the first three games, then lost two, and then recovered in Game 6. They coughed up a 2-0 lead in Game 4 with a chance to sweep. They did the same in the sixth game before recovering with a late goal from veteran Max Pacioretty. One of their great players, Mitch Marner, only took eight shots on goal the entire series.

But they won, and that’s what matters. Anthony Stolarz played well in the net. Ottawa’s best path to win was for their goalie, Linus Ullmark, to get hot. Other than a Game 5 shutout, that didn’t happen. Ullmark couldn’t bail his team out, and the Leafs have better all-around talent. A shout-out in defeat though to Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk, who played aggressively the entire series and scored four times.

Florida over Tampa Bay 4-1
A series that promised to be competitive turned into a complete posterior-kicking. It’s not just the five games. It’s that Florida was firmly in command of all four of their wins. The Lightning only scored the first goal once, in Game 5, and the Panthers immediately responded. A third-period burst in a Game 3 win was Tampa’s only real life in this series.

Defense was the reason. Florida just locked an excellent offensive team up. The Lightning averaged just 22 shots per game, and only rarely did those shots seem like good looks. The great Nikita Kucherov was neutralized into being a non-factor. And on top of all this, Tampa just didn’t get a good series from Andrei Vasilevskiy in net, who had an awful 87.2% save rate. I watched all five games of this series and was left with the obvious conclusion that the Panthers are simply better—regardless of what happens in the regular season.

Metropolitan Division

Washington over Montreal 4-1
Alex Ovechkin did what a star does. He led the way, and it began immediately in Game 1. He scored the first goal of the series, then he scored the game-winner in overtime. In the decisive Game 5, he scored on a power play goal that set an early tone. Ovechkin finished with four goals for the series. Connor McMichael added three, and Dylan Strome passed for seven assists.

Montreal showed life in Game 3 when they launched 40 shots on net in an easy win. Cole Caufield took 11 of those shots and was the one Canadien player who consistently stayed aggressive, scoring three times for the series. In the end though, Capital goalie Logan Thompson was terrific, with a 92.3% save rate and Montreal didn’t have enough firepower.

Carolina over New Jersey 4-1
The Hurricane defense was too good. The Devils only took 144 shots over the five games. While an average of just under 30 per game isn’t bad on its face, keep in mind that two of these games went double overtime, including the Game 5 finale. New Jersey goaltender Jacob Markstrom was a trooper—a 91.1% save rate, standing up against a barrage, and to Nico Hischier, who scored four times. But it wasn’t enough. Carolina just controlled the flow of play throughout the series.

Andrei Svechnikov scored five goals, Sebastian Aho had three goals and five assists, and Frederik Anderson was a terrific in goal until an injury kept him out of Game 5. It’s worth noting that was the only game the Devils scored more than three regulation goals.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Central Division

Winnipeg over St. Louis 4-3
Wow, did Connor Hellebuyck ever get spared from a long offseason. The Winnipeg goalie, likely to become a three-time Vezina Trophy winner when this year’s awards get handed out, spent seven games adding to what’s already a less-than-stellar postseason legacy. Hellebuyck was a disaster in this series. The Jets gave up 17 goals in their three losses, all but one of those billed to Hellebuyck’s account. He was pulled from all those games, and he dug himself a 2-0 hole in the first period of Game 7 at home. For the series, his save rate was a putrid 83 percent.

It speaks volumes to how much the rest of Winnipeg’s team outplayed their St. Louis counterparts that they survived, even if it literally came to the last second of Game 7, when Cole Perfetti got the tip-in that forced overtime. The Jets outshot the Blues 194-166 for the series, and that edge was 47-29 in Game 7. Kyle Connor was excellent, scoring four goals and passing for eight assists. Winnipeg’s superiority was sufficient to overcome a goaltending nightmare—barely.

Dallas over Colorado 4-3
This series was outstanding from start to finish. The best players on each team delivered. Both teams came up with clutch third-period rallies with their backs to the wall, Colorado in Game 6 and Dallas in Game 7. The ultimate difference was that the Stars got the two games that went overtime, Games 2 & 3.

Nathan MacKinnon was heroic in defeat for the Avs. He scored seven goals and was consistently on the attack throughout the series. Colorado outshot Dallas decisively, 241-189. Avs goaltender MacKenzie Blackwood simply didn’t play well. Game 7 was a microcosm of the series as a whole—the Avs outshot the Stars 27-19 and had a 2-0 lead early in the third period. But Blackwood was unable to survive a couple of power plays and the whole game turned on a dime. Mikko Rantanen came up with a Game 7 hat trick, Roope Hintz scored four goals for the series, and Wyatt Johnston added three more.

Pacific Division

Vegas over Minnesota 4-2
The Wild hung in this one really well. Their two wins were both decisive at 5-2, and they came in Games 2 & 3, putting an upset in play. In Game 4, Minnesota appeared to have scored the game-winner with 1:15 left, but an offsides call waved it off. The Wild lost that one in overtime, dropped another OT decision in Game 5 and were ultimately eliminated. But they were scrappy underdogs. Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy scored five goals apiece, and Filip Gustavson was solid in net.

Vegas pulled it out in spite of less-than-stellar goaltending. They also didn’t have anyone really stand out on the offensive end. How are they moving on then? Good overall team defense. The Golden Knights limited the Wild to 153 shots in the six games—a figure that’s even more impressive when you consider there were two overtime periods. Outshoot someone 192-153 over six games and you put the odds in your favor. Vegas did.

Edmonton over LA Kings 4-2
For Los Angeles to win this series, their defense—one of the league’s best at limiting shots—was going to have to lock Edmonton up and make games ugly. The Kings couldn’t do it. The Oilers averaged over 30 shots per game, including assaulting the net with a combined 94 shots in the Games 4 & 5 wins that effectively swung the series. The problems for L.A. were seen right away in Game 1. Even though they won, they first blew a 4-0 lead. Not a good sign if you’re going to win with defense. Then they had Game 4 in hand, poised to go up 3-1 in the series. Instead, Edmonton scored twice late to tie it, won in overtime and didn’t look back.

The shot barrage from the Oilers was balanced—no individual, not even Connor McDavid, averaged as many as four per game. McDavid did finish with nine assists. Leon Draisaitl had seven assists and also scored the OT game-winner in the Game 4 epic. L.A. got a good showing from Adrian Kempe (4 goals) and goalie Darcy Kuemper hung in admirably against the constant assault. But Edmonton is just showing themselves to be a mentally tough team who can execute their offense, even in the grind of the playoffs.