NHL Notebook: 1st Round Previews

Sports Scribe Blog

The NHL postseason begins Saturday night. We’ve given a broad overview of all 16 teams here. This post will look at the specific first-round matchups. Like in the NBA, the NHL’s first round will go until the first weekend of May. Here’s a look at what’s in our immediate future. Betting odds are in parentheses next to the favorite.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic Division

(1)Toronto (-200) – (4)Ottawa
The Maple Leafs have vastly superior offensive talent with the quartet of William Nylander, Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews and John Tavarez. Even Matthew Knies, the fifth-best Toronto offensive threat, would be the best player on Ottawa. The Leafs have an emerging goaltender in Anthony Stolarz.

What the Senators can counter with is a goalie in Linus Ullmark whose resume—while short on postseason credentials—includes a recent Vezina Trophy. Given that Toronto has relied on high-percentage shooting as opposed to shot volume, a hot Ullmark could lead an upset. I won’t pick it, but it’s not unthinkable. Maple Leafs in 6.

(2)Tampa Bay – (3)Florida (-115)
This is an epic showdown between two teams filled with championship players and who have combined for every Finals appearance out of the East for the last five years. The Lightning bring one of the great all-around players in Nikita Kucherov who leads up an offense that scores more than anyone in the league. While the fast pace leaves their own goalie exposed to plenty of fire, Andrei Vasilevskiy still has Tampa ranking fourth in goals allowed.

Florida, the defending champs, counters with a team that controls the pace of play—they rank in the top 5 for both shots taken and shots allowed. While the offense is more pedestrian than Tampa’s, the Panthers do have an excellent scorer in Sam Reinhart. In a closely contested series though, Tampa executes on the power play—both offensively and defensively—a little bit better. I’ll lean that direction. Lightning in 7.

Metropolitan Division

(1)Washington (-250) – (4)Montreal
The Capitals have the best record in the Eastern Conference. They have one of the game’s all-time greats in Alex Ovechkin, on a high after breaking Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record. To say nothing of the impressive 44 goals Ovechkin notched this season. They have a balanced lineup that includes Aliakesi Portas and Tom Wilson. Goalie Logan Thompson has played well. And they face a Canadiens team that has no standout characteristics.

So, do we just advance Washington forward on the bracket? Probably, but there are cautionary notes. The Caps don’t take that many shots. It works because Ovechkin is so high-percentage, but if Montreal can keep him off the puck, this could get interesting. The Canadiens have a pair of goalies in Sam Montembeault and Jakub Dobes, who are at least respectable. And this is the NHL playoffs. But whenever you get to the latter disclaimer, it usually means one team is going to blow through. I think that’s what happens here. Caps in 5.

(2)Carolina (-285) – (3)New Jersey
The Hurricanes might not be the favorite to win the Cup, but they are the heftiest favorite of the first round. This is a physical team that allows fewer shots than anyone in the league. While they don’t have a big playoff run with this group of players, they have been very consistent at advancing out of the first round. While they don’t have a great offensive player, they generate the second-most shots in the league. What’s more, they’re facing a wounded opponent—New Jersey’s already shaky offense was compromised even further by Jack Hughes’ season-ending injury back in March.

Hope for the Devils lies with their defense and special teams. They rank in the top 6 of the NHL for goals against, shots against, and on both ends of the power play. That’s a formula for keeping games close, the Hurricanes don’t have dominant goaltending, and I’m not sure this series will play out as lopsided as the betting markets project. But Carolina should advance. Hurricanes in 6.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Central Division

(1)Winnipeg (-235) – (4)St. Louis
The Jets were the best team in hockey during the regular season, winning the President’s Trophy for the first time. An offense led by Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele is potent and has supporting cast players who can score. A defense backed up goalie Connor Hellebuyck was the league’s best. The power play was the most efficient in the NHL. As an opponent, St. Louis has the profile of the fringe playoff team they are. On paper, this is a total mismatch.

Is there any hope for the Blues, beyond the perfunctory “it’s the NHL playoffs” disclaimer? A little bit. Hellebuyck has had some serious playoff disappointments in recent seasons and with Winnipeg ranking a more pedestrian 11^th in shots allowed, they do leave him exposed. The offense relies on high percentage rather than volume shooting, potentially making them vulnerable to a hot goalie. It’s worth watching. But if the Jets lose this series, it’s a disaster for the franchise. Jets in 5.

(2)Dallas – (3)Colorado (-185)
This is the big battle in the West. Colorado has a recent Stanley Cup (2022). These teams combined for every Finals appearance from 2020-22, and have continued to contend since, with the Stars reaching the conference finals each of the last two seasons. But not only is the Avalanche’s historical resume a little bit better, so is their individual team profile from the regular season.

While Dallas has the league’s third-best offense, Colorado isn’t far behind at sixth. And the Avalanche excel at controlling tempo, with significant advantages over the Stars in shot margin. Their power play is better. They have the best player on the ice in Nathan MacKinnon. Colorado should move forward. Avs in 6.

Pacific Division

(1)Vegas (-250) – (4)Minnesota
There are three teams in the playoffs that have no real standout characteristics. The Wild join the Blues and Canadiens in that group. But unlike St. Louis and Montreal, Minnesota has no players with any recent playoff success, and unlike the aforementioned two franchises, they don’t have an opponent with any history of real playoff failure.

Vegas is a complete hockey team, ranking among the league’s elite in everything except the penalty kill. They are well-coached and they won the Stanley Cup in 2023. They have proven winners, from Jack Eichel to Mark Stone to Tomas Hertl in the lineup. Adin Hill is a solid goalie, and Ilya Samsonov is a worthy backup if Hill struggles. This is the biggest mismatch of the first round. Golden Knights in 4.

(2)LA Kings – (3)Edmonton (-115)
In spite of finishing narrowly behind Los Angeles in the standings, Edmonton is the more talented team, and rather substantially. Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid are both all-timers and the two best players on the ice. The arrival of head coach Kris Knoblauch last year got the Oilers past their playoff problems, and they reached Game 7 of the Finals. They get more shots than anyone in the league and they’re facing a goalie, 34-year-old Darcy Kuemper, who has a long history of playoff shortcomings.

Where Los Angeles can counter is exceptional team defense. As good as Edmonton is at getting shots, L.A. is that good at stopping them. If they turn the series into a grind, the advantage shifts to the Kings. Los Angeles does have a pair of 35-goal scorers in Adrian Kempe and Kevin Fiala. And Kuemper? Hey, he had a great season (92.1% save rate) and as Sergei Bobrovsky showed the last couple of years for Florida, every veteran with a spotty playoff history is just one spring away from changing the narrative. This is a fascinating series. I’ll roll with Los Angeles to ugly this thing up and grind it out. Kings in 7.

CONCLUSION

I’ve made my exact predictions for how long each series will go, but unlike with basketball, that’s a lot dicier in hockey. In truth, no one should ever be surprised if an underdog drags a favorite to seven games in the NHL. Nor should it be a shock if you get a whole lot of closely contested games that all go the same direction.

All of which is to say my number of games prediction is really more a statement on the odds of each team winning. They can be roughly translated as this:

To win in 4 games (Vegas): It might take until triple overtime of Game 7, but I will fall out of my chair shocked if they don’t advance, and defeat has to be the source of major soul-searching in the organization.

To win in 5 games (Washington, Winnipeg): I’d be pretty surprised if these teams don’t win, and they should consider it a major disappointment. But there’s something within the matchup that means it won’t be a total shock.

To win in 6 games (Toronto, Carolina, Colorado): These teams are comfortably better than their opponent, and I have no doubts in picking them. But it’s definitely competitive and worth keeping an eye on from the outset.

To win in 7 games (Tampa Bay, Los Angeles): Battle royale.

Let’s play hockey! We will be back in this space, for both the NBA and NHL, as first-round matchups end, and we have something to unpack.