NHL Notebook: Playoff Overview
The field in the NHL playoffs is set and the two-month long race for the Stanley Cup begins this weekend. We set the stage with a concise overview of all 16 teams. They are organized by betting odds, as posted on Vegas Insider.
Betting markets put the teams into two broad categories—there are 10 teams pretty closely stacked in the odds, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see any of them win it all. There are five longshots. And there’s one kind of stuck in between.
THE FAVORITES
Florida (+650)
The Panthers have been to the Finals two straight years, and they hoisted the Cup last season. This year’s bid starts with a defense that’s third-best in the league at limiting shots. The shots that do get off still have to get by Sergei Bobrovsky, an all-timer who has finally found postseason success. Florida also has a balanced offense that generates a high volume of shots. Sam Reinhart, with 39 goals, leads the way.
That high volume of shots isn’t necessarily leading to a lot of goals though. The Panthers rank 15th in the NHL for goals scored. How well they find some offense will define this year’s playoff success.
Colorado (+700)
The Avalanche won the Stanley Cup in 2022, and under head coach Jared Bednar, have won at least one playoff round five times in seven years. Colorado is led by Nathan MacKinnon, whose 84 assists are tied for the best in the NHL. MacKinnon fuels an offense that is in the league’s upper crust at both generating shots and making them. They execute the power play well, and a good team defense limits exposure for the goaltender.
That said—goalies do face inordinate pressure in the NHL playoffs. Despite ranking third in shots allowed, Colorado ranks a more generic 12th in the bottom line of goals allowed. MacKenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood both have save rates above 91 percent, so I’m not sure what the problem is. But the Avs need consistency in the net.
Dallas (+800)
Balance is the word that jumps to mind when you look at the Stars’ profile. They are top-6 in the league for both scoring and team defense. They kill penalties effectively. While they have a clear starter at goalie in Jake Oettinger, Casey DeSmith can be a dependable backup. They have four players—Matt Duchene, Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnson and Roope Hintz—who are between 28-35 goals scored.
The biggest challenge Dallas will face is tightening up the defense. They are 24th in shots allowed, and that puts a lot of pressure on your goalie. The power play is also below average.
Vegas (+850)
A franchise that made the Finals in their first year of existence in 2018 and won it all in 2023, is back for more this spring. Vegas is top-5 in the NHL for both goals scored and goals, both shots allowed and shots against. Their power play is the second-most efficient in the NHL. They have two 30-plus goal scorers in Tomas Hertl and Pavel Dorofeyey, and balance underneath. They’re well-coached by Bruce Cassidy.
What’s not to love? The penalty kill for one—only 26th in the league. Otherwise, the Golden Knights are going to be a tough out.
Edmonton (+950)
Kris Knoblauch took the coaching reins last season and a star-laden team known for coming up short in the playoffs made it all the way to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals. Leon Draisaitl is an elite scorer, lighting the lamp 52 times. Connor McDavid is a great passer, with 74 assists. The Oilers generate more shots than any team in the NHL and there’s no real weakness.
While there’s no real weakness, there also isn’t a lot that jumps off the page beyond the Draisaitl/McDavid tandem and taking all the shots. Edmonton is 11th in goals scored and 14th in goals against. The power play, both offensively and defensively, is kind of meh. Stuart Skinner could go either way as a goalie. And perhaps that sums up the Oilers—you can see the star power and the potential, but an early exit wouldn’t be a shock either.
Winnipeg (+950)
Connor Hellebuyck is the NHL’s most consistent goalie over a period of years now, and he racked up a 92.5% save rate this season. Can that translate into playoff success? Since reaching the conference finals in 2018, the Jets have had a string of playoff disappointments. Hellebuyck gives them the best defense in the league, and they also execute the power play more efficiently than anyone. Kyle Conner and Mark Scheifele are both big-time scorers. The pieces are in place.
If the team who won the President’s Trophy for best regular season record falters in the spring, reasons can start with the fact that the defense is top-heavy dependent on Hellebuyck. They give up the 11th-most shots. Lest you think that simply happens because they play a fast pace and expose their goalie a little more, the Jets only rank 16th in generating shots. While Winnipeg is far from a one-man show, a Cup run absolutely hinges on Hellebuyck’s greatness.
Carolina (10-1)
The Hurricanes have been a steady playoff team, winning seven rounds since 2019. But they haven’t made the big run in the postseason. Their success comes from the fact they can play and win ugly. Carolina’s defense allows the fewest shots in the league and their penalty kill is also the NHL’s best. At a time of year when you have to win games by grinding them out, the Hurricanes can excel.
Where they’ve come up short is on star power. Seth Jarvis, with 35 goals/67 assists, is the most productive offensive player. But there’s no one who’s great, and perhaps that’s reflected in Carolina being one of the worst power-play offenses in the sport. Goaltending is also an issue—both Pyotr Kochettkov and Frederik Andersen are both a hair below 90 percent. While the former is the main goalie, the latter will likely play as well—and Andersen has a history of being just good enough to lose in the playoffs.
Toronto (10-1)
A deep and well-balanced offense brings a lot of star power. William Nylander is a 45-goal scorer and the team leader, and he’s not even the biggest name. John Tavarez is still going strong, and the duo of Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews are prolific both shooting and passing. Matthew Knies is an underrated offensive threat himself. What’s more, Maple Leaf goalie Anthony Stolarz is emerging and his 92.6% save rate is best in the league.
The concern? In addition to the constant struggles this franchise has had in the postseason, Stolarz’s numbers come in just 33 starts. And he will be tested, because Toronto’s defense, ranked 25th in shots allowed, depends on their goalie being great.
Washington (10-1)
After a historic season where Alex Ovechkin became the NHL’s all-time leading goal scorer, the Caps aim to win their first postseason series since hoisting the Cup in 2018. Ovechkin is a 44-goal scorer and he’s always been high-percentage in his shots. That’s noteworthy because it helps explain how Washington can be just 22nd at generating shots, but second in the NHL where it matters most—putting the puck in the net. Ovechkin’s past history suggests this is no fluke. Tom Wilson, Aliakesi Protas and Dylan Strome are key parts of the offensive machine.
Playoff success often comes down to goaltending and the health of Logan Thompson will be critical for Washington. He’s dealing with an upper-body injury. I would assume he’ll play, but his status remains up in the air. Thompson finished with a 91% percent save rate.
Tampa Bay (11-1)
The great Nikita Kucherov led the NHL in points, with 37 goals and his 84 assists were tied with MacKinnon. Kucherov spearheads the game’s most prolific offense. A battle-tested lineup includes 40-plus goal scorers in Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel. Victor Hedman, a holdover from the championship years of 2020-21, can still move the puck and has 51 assists. Andrei Vasilevskiy is a Stanley Cup-winning goaltender with a 92.1% save rate.
If we want to pick modest nits, the Lightning rank 12th in getting shots and 14th in allowing them. So they are dependent on high-percentage shooting, which could be tougher in the playoffs, and they need Vasilevskiy to be great.
ON THE FENCE
LA Kings (18-1)
Since winning two Cups in three years, over 2012-14, Los Angeles hasn’t made an impact on the postseason. Their success this year is driven by excellent defense. They are near the top of the league at limiting shots and veteran goalie Darcy Kuemper has finished the job when shots do get taken—a stellar 92.1% save rate. You play defense, and you can win playoff games.
Kuemper is 34-years-old though. This is far from his first playoff rodeo, and he’s never had success on the biggest stages. Offensively, while Adrain Kempe and Kevin Fiala are both good 35-goal scorers, the attack overall is mediocre.
THE LONGSHOTS
Ottawa (35-1)
The Senators have Linus Ullmark in goalie, who’s only two years removed from winning the Vezina Trophy, and posted a solid 90.9% save rate this season. Ullmark didn’t do well in the playoffs when he was with Boston, which got him traded to Ottawa. Now, he has a chance at redemption.
Ullmark becoming the hot goalie is where the Senators’ hopes lie. He’s carried the defense all season—they rank eighth in goals allowed, in spite of being a more mediocre 19th in shots allowed. They don’t have a signature scorer and are in the league’s lower half for offense.
New Jersey (40-1)
A franchise that has done nothing since the great goalie Martin Brodeur had his last hurrah with a run to the Finals in 2012, is coming off a strong first year under head coach Sheldon Keefe. A team that is good all-around defensively and executes on the power play both ways, made the playoffs with ease. Jesper Bratt is a skilled passer, and Nico Hischier is a 35-goal scorer.
The loss of 23-year-old Jack Hughes, a rising star, to season-ending shoulder surgery is a huge blow. New Jersey was already below average offensively, both at getting shots and making them. Losing Hughes means they’ll have to win a lot of 2-1 and 1-0 games to survive.
Minnesota (45-1)
Filip Gustavsson posted a 91.4% save rate in net, and it’s not hard to imagine him getting hot and carrying an undermanned team through a series. That’s important to note because the Wild are undermanned. Nothing stands out offensively, either team-wide or on an individual basis. They allow a lot of shots and have one of the league’s worst penalty kills.
If Minnesota wins any playoff rounds, it will be either because Gustavsson got in some kind of insane zone, or because of something we didn’t see in the regular season.
St. Louis (50-1)
The Blues have fallen off the map since wining the Cup in 2019. They made a coaching change early in the season, bringing in Jim Montgomery from Boston, who was available because of a lack of postseason success. But St. Louis scraped into the playoffs behind a decent defense and an offense that did just enough to win, led by 36-goal scorer Jordan Kyrou.
They’re a 50-1 longshot for a reason though, and unless goalie Jordan Binnington magically awakens the ’19 version of himself, there’s no reason to get fired up about a Blues run.
Montreal (50-1)
Martin St. Louis was a Hall of Fame player in Tampa Bay, and he won the MVP award for a 2004 Lightning team that brought home the Stanley Cup. Now, he’s a successful coach in Montreal, putting the Canadiens into the postseason for the first time since their surprise run to the Finals in 2021. Montreal is led by 30-plus goal scorers in Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. They kill off penalties well, ranking ninth in the league.
That’s about it though. One should never say never in the chaotic world of the NHL playoffs. We won’t say never here. But we will say that if Montreal goes on a significant run, nothing has happened over an 82-game regular season that would foreshadow it.
The puck drops on Saturday. We’ll have previews of the specific first-round matchups in the morning.