NFL Notebook: 2025 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview
Tampa Bay has been the NFC South’s signature franchise. After winning the Super Bowl as a wild-card in 2020, they’ve captured four straight division crowns, transitioning from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield in the process. But “signature franchise” in this division has been a lower bar of late. Tampa’s last three first-place finishes have come with a combined regular season record of 27-24, and last year’s 10-7 season was their best finish since 2021. What’s in store for this season?
BAKER’S REVIVAL & A LOADED SUPPORTING CAST
Mayfield’s play last year, at the age of 28, stands as a repudiation to the modern NFL mindset that immediately judges young players early in their career. With experience and in the right system, Mayfield became a Pro Bowler. He completed 71 percent of his passes and did it with some volume, at 7.9 yards-per-attempt. There are still too many mistakes, but Mayfield clearly showed he can give a franchise some stability and enable a supporting cast to develop around him.
And that supporting cast is very good. Mike Evans is still producing at wide receiver, continuing a career that will almost certainly land him in Canton. Chris Godwin missed a lot of last season with an ankle injury, but he’ll be back—whether that’s in Week 1 or thereafter is up in the air, but Godwin will be on the field soon enough.
Bucky Irving had a terrific rookie year at running back, rushing for over 1,100 yards and doing so at an impressive 5.4 yards-per-carry. Irving also contributed to the passing game, with 47 receptions. This year’s rookie addition is wideout Emeka Egbuka from Ohio State, who can further juice up the offense.
The offensive line is another unit that’s in good shape. The Buccaneers are solid on the edges, with Tristan Wirfs being one of the game’s better left tackles. Cody Mauch is a solid at right guard. If Graham Barton, in his second year at center, can keep developing, the front five will be even better.
It’s not hard to see why Tampa Bay finished fourth in the NFL for points scored last year. They did pay the price for success, as coordinator Liam Coen cashed that performance in for the head coaching gig in Jacksonville. But the Bucs shouldn’t have any problems putting up points this year.
CAN WINFIELD BOUNCE BACK?
Head coach Todd Bowles built his reputation as a defensive coordinator, both here and in Arizona under Bruce Arians. Last season’s Buccaneer D was mediocre, finishing 16th for points allowed.
A key reason for a relatively disappointing performance was pedestrian play from strong safety Antoine Winfield. After signing a four-year deal that made him, at the time, the highest-paid defensive back in the league, Winfield’s grades at Pro Football Focus were subpar. This combined with a pass rush that, while reasonably decent at generating pressure, was less effective at finishing that pressure off with sacks. Winfield is still only 27-years-old and he has to return to form if Tampa’s defense is going to be a strength.
That said, 16th in the league isn’t terrible either. Vita Vea is a Pro Bowl nose tackle, providing an anchor in the 3-4 scheme and the ability to box up the middle. Yaya Dibya is a good outside linebacker and Lavonte David is steady on the inside. Tampa’s defense is a mixed bag of good and bad and how it ultimately shakes out will be what defines their season.
OUTLOOK
With an Over/Under win prop of 9.5, betting markets see Tampa Bay is continuing to settle into the “good, not elite” category. I’d agree with that. The Bucs will again come down the stretch battling the Falcons for the division and sitting right on the playoff fringe. We’ll make a prediction where they will land in our final league-wide wrap-up preview on September 4.