NFL Notebook: Early Check-In – NFC South
When the season started, the NFC South looked like a straightforward two-tiered system. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons were the evenly matched favorites, with neither one really being Super Bowl-quality. The Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints were the also-rans. Six weeks in, the landscape has mostly held true, albeit with some tweaks:
Tampa Bay (5-1) and Atlanta (3-2) remain the class of the division. But the Bucs are getting some love as a possible elite contender and Carolina’s surprise 3-3 start, including a 30-0 stunner over the Falcons, has added some intrigue.
So, what do we make of it all? We’ll leave the Saints behind, as the only thing they have to decide the rest of this season is whether Spencer Rattler can cut it as their QB of the future, and focus on the three teams who are playing .500 or better.
MAYFIELD’S MATURATION
Baker Mayfield has come into his own in Tampa Bay and 2025, at least thus far, has been his best season yet. The key this year is that Mayfield is staying away from mistakes, having thrown just one interception over six games. His 66 percent completion rate is still on par with the league average. His 7.9 yards-per-attempt is good, but not dazzling. Being intercepted on just 0.5% of his passes is what’s separating him from the crowd right now.
Furthermore, Mayfield is doing this without a signature star in the skill position areas. Young running back Bucky Irving and veteran wide receiver Mike Evans can be those stars, but at this point, Mayfield has been more like a point guard, just distributing the ball to everyone in the lineup. Mayfield is also carrying what has been a spotty offensive line.
Where Tampa has to be concerned is the fact their defense ranks just 24th in points allowed. While corner Jamel Dean grades out as the best at his position over at Pro Football Focus, keying a good secondary, the front seven has been an issue. The Buccaneers need better play from lineman Vita Vea and linebacker Lavonte David moving forward.
THE FALCON FORMULA: RUN THE BALL AND PLAY DEFENSE
Michael Penix is in his first full season as the starting quarterback in Atlanta and he’s playing like someone still getting seasoning. Penix’s 62 percent completion rate is low in this day and age and he needs to be more consistent. That’s why the Falcons rank just 27th in the NFL for points scored.
But they are running the football, and Bijan Robinson continues to be one of the league’s most versatile, all-around backs. His 484 yards are third overall, and the Falcon offensive line has been excellent.
Defensively, while Atlanta has notable problems on the corners, they are getting good overall results, seventh in the NFL for points allowed.
Ironically, the Falcons are the mirror image of the Bucs—Tampa is solid on the corners, but weak overall defensively, dealing with a troubled offensive line and being carried by MVP-caliber quarterback play. Atlanta is tough up front and mostly good on defense, but shaky QB play and questionable corners could be their undoing.
CAROLINA’S MIRAGE & THE BRYCE YOUNG QUESTION
It’s hard to take the Panthers too seriously as a contender, even though any team that splits its first six games deserves to at least get looked at. Rico Dowdle is having a big-time year running the ball, with his 472 yards right behind Robinson in Atlanta near the top of the rushing charts. Carolina is another team getting steady work from their offensive line.
Here’s the problem—Bryce Young shows no signs of becoming a reliable quarterback. He’s got a running game, he’s got a decent line, and this is third year in the league. We need to see it from him and we haven’t to this point. He’s subpar in completion percentage, disastrous in yards-per-attempt (a meager 5.8) and has thrown five picks.
That’s not going to cut it on a team that lacks playmakers defensively and also grades out poorly on this side of the ball at PFF. Two of Carolina’s wins came at the expense of Miami and Dallas. If you think that blowout of the Falcons was a fluke—and we do in this space—there’s no reason to expect Carolina to hang.
OUTLOOK
Betting markets have dramatically shifted since the start of the season, when Tampa Bay and Atlanta were closely priced together. Now, the Buccaneers are a hefty (-375) favorite. To put that in perspective, the Steelers—whose AFC North preview went up earlier today—are only (-160) and Pittsburgh is three games clear of a field that is decimated by injuries.
I respect Tampa, Mayfield and head coach Todd Bowles, but I’m not seeing the justification for that level of confidence. Their Week 1 win in Atlanta will loom large. As will the Falcons’ inexplicable loss to Carolina, something that will impact a division record tiebreaker with Tampa coming down the stretch. But there’s only a one-game gap. The Falcons just knocked off Buffalo last night. I picked Atlanta at the start of the season and I’m sticking with them.
UP NEXT
The AFC East will be our next stop on the division tour. And with October offering both football’s early jousts and baseball’s grand finale, don’t miss our MLB postseason coverage — including a free download of The LCS Chronicles, Vol. 1 (1969–80), a 20-page companion celebrating the early years of the League Championship Series. Click here to learn more and download today.