NFL Notebook: Early Check-In – NFC North

J.P. Flynn Blog

This is the sixth of our NFL division check-ins as the 2025 season hits the one-third mark. Catch up with our earlier look-ins:
AFC East
AFC North
AFC South
NFC South
NFC West

The NFC North opened the season with two clear heavyweights, as the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers harbored legitimate Super Bowl aspirations. And the division had two hopefuls, with the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears each having hopes of at least making the playoffs. Six weeks in, that’s exactly how this division has played out.

This division, already one of the league’s most historic in terms of its rivalries, is replete with storylines and the promise of another great chapter. Breaking it down by Lions-Packers on the top tier, and Vikings-Bears on the contending tier, here are some of those storylines.

LIONS – PACKERS: THE TWIN TITANS

*These teams might not only be the league’s two best, they have the NFL’s two best defensive ends. Aidan Hutchinson is clearly healthy from that broken leg he suffered early last season and is wreaking havoc again for Detroit. Green Bay’s acquisition of Chandler Parsons right before the season started is paying big dividends. Parsons and Hutchinson not only get their sacks, they also grade out as 1-2 among defensive ends by Pro Football Focus. You’re talking about playmakers who also play fundamentally sound—and neither one was available to their current team in last year’s playoffs.

*Both quarterbacks have put themselves into the MVP conversation. Jared Goff’s 76 completion rate is the league’s best. He’s avoiding mistakes and is still getting 8.0 yards-per-attempt. Jordan Love is at 70 percent and 8.6 yards-per-attempt. Both also have the same question marks—Love’s mysterious non-performance in a loss to Cleveland, the league’s most bizarre result of the first six weeks, underscored concerns about his consistency. Goff has shown a tendency to have complete interception meltdowns. Both concerns will linger, but for now, the aggregate production is excellent.

*Detroit and Green Bay each have some early issues on the offensive line. Each one has a quality tackle—Penei Sewell for the Lions and the Packers’ Zach Tom. But there are some ragged spots elsewhere that have to be smoothed out in the coming weeks. In both cases, improved offensive line play will make a huge impact, because both teams have running backs that are still finding ways to produce, even with problems up front. Green Bay brings Josh Jacobs, and Detroit relies on the tandem of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.

*Where the Packers have emerged as a narrow early favorite—buoyed by their decisive 27-13 win over the Lions in Week 1 at Lambeau Field—is more consistent play in the secondary. That would be the key reason Green Bay ranks 10^th in the NFL for points allowed, while Detroit is at 18^th. The Packer receiving corps is also a little more balanced. While Lion wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown is the best receiver between the two teams, Green Bay has multiple targets.

*Where the Lions can look ahead with optimism is that the schedule these first six weeks was stacked against them. In addition to making their road visit to Green Bay, Detroit also had to play the Baltimore Ravens before injuries ravaged the Ravens, and they had to play at Kansas City. Meanwhile, the Packers have been messing around against a comparatively weak schedule.

In short—each team has plenty of reasons to be excited. They play again on the early afternoon of Thanksgiving in Detroit. And that might be the prelude for a final battle sometime in January.

VIKINGS – BEARS: HANGING IN THE RACE

*Is Minnesota becoming a place where veteran castoff quarterbacks go to revive themselves? Last year it was Sam Darnold stepping in for the injured J.J. McCarthy, turning his career around and putting the Vikes into the league’s upper crust. This year, McCarthy goes down early and Carson Wentz steps up and helps get Minnesota to 3-2. McCarthy is healthy again, but as the first-year starter plays through some growing pains, it has to be nice for head coach Kevin O’Connell to know he has an alternative.

*Speaking of growing pains, Chicago’s Caleb Williams went through his last year. Between getting some experience and getting a new coach in Ben Johnson, Williams is playing better in Year 2. He still needs to be a little more efficient, but after a lot of dink-and-dunk passing in 2024, Williams now has a 7.4 yards-per-attempt, above the league average, this time around.

*The Bears, also at 3-2, need to play better defense. If you look at their PFF grades, there are a lot of individual pieces to work with, but the end result is that they’re 27^th in the NFL for points allowed. If coordinator Dennis Allen, recently dismissed as head coach in New Orleans, wants another shot at a head job, he needs to make the whole as good as the sum of the parts here in the Windy City.

*Meanwhile, the Vikings have the opposite situation. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores has taken a unit that is top-heavy dependent on some great edge players in Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel, combined with a solid corner in Isaiah Rodgers, and turned it into the league’s fifth-stingiest unit. The ability of Flores and his stars to continue papering over problems elsewhere will be a key to Minnesota, also at 3-2, continuing to hang in the race.

OUTLOOK

I’ve structured this division as a clear caste system between the twin groups of two teams, and betting markets confirm that view. The Packers are a narrow (-105) favorite, with the Lions right behind at (+155). Then you get a big drop to the Vikings at 9-1 and the Bears at 12-1.

That said, this is hardly a “never the ‘twain shall meet’ situation. If Minnesota gets good quarterback play from McCarthy—a very reasonable expectation given he’s at a natural growth pattern in his career, they could easily join the Packers and Lions at the top, as was the case a year ago. It’s hard to see that kind of upside for the Bears, but on the flip side, Chicago fans are all too aware of the ability for the bottom to fall out at any time.

All four teams will be worth watching over the next several weeks, as they position themselves for an NFL stretch drive that I consider to begin on Thanksgiving—coincidentally, right when Green Bay and Detroit meet again.

The AFC West will be our next stop on the division tour. And with October offering both football’s early jousts and baseball’s grand finale, don’t miss the chance to travel into MLB’s great past. Our free download, The LCS Chronicles, Vol. 1 (1969–80), a 20-page companion celebrating the early years of the League Championship Series, is available. Click here to learn more and download today.