NFL Notebook: 2025 Indianapolis Colts Preview

The Indianapolis Colts have been a .500 team for the last two years under Shane Steichen, going 17-17 since he became the head coach. Do they make the next step this year? Does the bottom fall out? Or is this another season where the Colts are a bland team that narrowly misses the playoffs? Let’s dive in…

A CHANGE AT QUARTERBACK

Indianapolis had quarterback problems that were rooted in the failure of Anthony Richardson to pan out. Indy has already faced reality so far this August and announced that Daniel Jones has beaten out Richardson for the job. The sooner the Colts cut ties with Richardson, the better—but that doesn’t mean this is a notable upgrade.

Jones got every opportunity with the Giants and never showed he could be anything more than a game-manager, avoiding mistakes, but not much more. There’s nothing wrong with that, but it does waste the game-changing capabilities of Alec Pierce, as good a deep threat as there is in the league.

If Jones’ mistake-free approach is going to work, Indianapolis is going to have to run the ball consistently. To that end, it was heartening to see Jonathan Taylor bounce back last season. After a couple of injury-riddled years, Taylor looked a little more like the guy who won the rushing title in 2021, going for over 1,400 years and averaging 4.7 a pop.

Taylor does that behind an offensive line that has a fantastic left side, with tackle Bernhard Raimann and guard Quenton Nelson, both among the NFL’s elite at their position. Center is a position of strength with Tanor Bortolini, and the right side of the line is at least manageable.

Jones isn’t a long-term answer at quarterback, but given the line and the running game, he’s the best choice for Indianapolis to stay competitive. But keep an eye on Riley Leonard, the rookie QB out of Notre Dame, to get some snaps if Jones struggles.

CAN A NEW COORDINATOR LIFT THE D?

Defense has been the hangup for Indianapolis the last two seasons. They’ve ranked in the bottom quarter of the league for points allowed in both 2023 and 2024. Steichen has brought in a new coordinator, Lou Anarumo. But Anarumo comes from Cincinnati, where defensive shortcomings have held back the Bengals for the last two years. How much of that is coaching is a fair question, but it’s also a fair to ask if this hire will change anything.

Anarumo will have some pieces to work with, starting up front. The Indianapolis front line is consistent across, with a legit star in DeForest Buckner at tackle. Grover Stewart is at the other tackle, giving the Colts a duo that can plug up the middle. Kwity Payne is a solid pass-rusher on the end and Laiatu Latu rounds out a strong quartet.

The success or failure of the defense will depend on what happens behind them. Indy made some moves in free agency in the secondary, but based on the grades at Pro Football Focus, it appears to be swapping out mediocrity for mediocrity. The linebackers are a problem. Strong safety Nick Cross is solid, but he’s going to need help.

OUTLOOK

Everything about Indianapolis screams “Average!”. They have legitimate strengths on both sides of the ball. Given that Jacksonville and Tennessee have more problems, you can start by presuming the Colts will finish second in the AFC South. If Houston stumbles, Indianapolis can be steady enough to win a weak division or maybe steal a wild-card spot. On the flip side, they could struggle to keep up with better offenses and slip.

Betting markets opt for the latter, with an Over/Under win prop of 7.5. I’ll make my final picks on September 4, before the regular season starts, but I don’t see any reason to think they’ll move off the roughly .500 they’ve been for two years.