NFL Notebook: 2025 Houston Texans Preview

Two years ago, DeMeco Ryans came to Houston as the new head coach and drafted rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. The results are in—two straight years of going 10-7, winning the AFC South and then advancing to the Divisional Round in the playoffs. Houston is on steady ground. Now, in a ruthlessly competitive AFC, can they reach higher?

C.J. STROUD’S NEXT STEP

Stroud, as you would expect, has shown performance that tracks with that of his team. Last year, his numbers were a 63% completion rate, 7.0 yards-per-attempt and 2.3% interception rate. He’s on steady ground, but he is not yet elite.

The main stumbling block is the quality of the offensive line. It’s not a bad unit, but it is mediocre. The Texans used a second-round draft pick on right tackle Aireontae Ersey and how well the Minnesota product gets up to speed will determine the fate of the offensive front. Joe Mixon has already been a pretty good running back, even with the pedestrian blocking. Between Mixon and Nick Chubb, Houston has the potential for a potent running attack—if they can get the path paved for them.

Wide receiver is in a similar situation. Nico Collins is an elite wideout, one of the league’s best. Another second-round pick was used on Jayden Higgins. Houston signed veteran slot man Christian Kirk. It’s a group that’s good enough, but Stroud has to be given time to throw.

Ultimately though, it comes back to the man under center. We know Stroud is good. As of yet, he hasn’t been able to cover for some of the other issues, the reason the offense ranked 19th in points scored last year. But we also know he’s got the talent to become the kind of QB who can lift everyone around him. And the third year as a starter would be a natural time for that to blossom.

DEFENSIVE STARS ON THE EDGE

This side of the ball is Ryans’ specialty and the Texans are particularly strong on the perimeter. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson make for as good a defensive end combo as there is on any 4-3 defense in the league. The corners, Kaman Lassiter and Derek Stingley Jr, can lock down any group  of receivers.  

It’s what happens in between the ends and corners that will tell us if Houston’s defense can lift from being decent (14th in the NFL in points allowed) to outstanding. On the plus side, Azeez Al-Shaair is a solid middle linebacker. On the negative side, Caden Bullock is a major weak spot at free safety. On the plus side, C.J. Gardner-Johnson is an excellent strong safety. On the negative side, the interior of the defensive front is a soft underbelly. There are no new acqusitions to suggest anything will change.

OUTLOOK

Betting markets put Houston’s Over/Under at 9.5. I don’t understand that. There’s no reason to think the Texans will be any worse than their established level of ten wins. Whether they’ll be better is another question. I have no problem with penciling them in right now as AFC South champs with at least a 10-7 record. Their fit in the overall AFC landscape is what I have to decide between now and the start of the season.