NFL Notebook: Early Check-In – AFC West

This is the seventh of our NFL division check-ins as the 2025 season hits the one-third mark. Catch up with our reviews from earlier this week:
AFC East
AFC North
AFC South
NFC North
NFC South
NFC West

The AFC West opened the season promising to be an interesting division governed by the overriding question of whether the Los Angeles Chargers or Denver Broncos, both playoff teams a year ago, could break the stranglehold the Kansas City Chiefs have had on this division going back to 2016. As the season hits its one-third checkpoint, it’s the Chargers and Broncos who are tied for first at 4-2, with the Chiefs sitting at 3-3. That includes L.A. knocking off Kansas City in Brazil to open the season.

That said, the Chiefs have played a difficult schedule to open the season and have won three of their last four. Are the nine-time defending division champs and three-time defending AFC champs ready to assert themselves? Or will one of the two rising forces move to the top? And what about the Las Vegas Raiders in the first year under Pete Carroll? Could they be a spoiler.

Let’s break it down…

FRONTRUNNERS FEELING DEFENSIVE

Los Angeles and Denver have both overcome subpar offensive play to get to winning records. Suffice it to say, that means they’re doing it with defense.

That’s particularly true in Denver, where the Broncos rank second in the NFL for points allowed. They do with a pair of aggressive outside linebackers. In our preseason preview of Denver, we identified Nik Bonitto as someone to watch for Defensive Player of the Year. Bonitto has put himself squarely in that conversation, with a league-leading eight sacks and his high grades on Pro Football Focus indicating good fundamental play overall. Bonitto is joined by Jonathan Cooper on the opposite edge.

Excellence from Bonitto and Cooper has covered up the fact that last year’s Defensive POY, corner Patrick Surtain, has been comparatively mediocre this year. The good news is that the secondary overall is still pretty stable and it’s reasonable to expect Surtain to pick up the pace. This is a defense that can wake up the echoes of their 2015 unit that won a Super Bowl—the last time a team not named the Kansas City Chiefs won the AFC West. .

The defense in Los Angeles isn’t quite that good, but they are getting steady play from their safeties, Tony Jefferson and Derwin James. The Chargers get pressure on the quarterback from Tuli Tuipuloto, who has five sacks. Jim Harbaugh’s teams generally play sound football and this year’s L.A. defense is no exception.

What Harbaugh’s teams also usually do is run the football. In spite of a rash of injuries on the offensive line, rookie running back Omario Hampton has gained 314 yards and is averaging 4.8 a pop. However, the instability on the line—something that should get better when Joe Alt returns–has taken its toll on the downfield passing game. Justin Herbert is only averaging 6.9 yards per attempt, and the passing game is mostly a lot of short throws to Keenan Allen. The Chargers need to get healthy up front and then get a more comprehensive passing game that includes greater use of Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnson, both of him can stretch the field.

Denver also has problems in the big play area, but that has to fall on quarterback Bo Nix. The Broncos have a strong offensive line. Left tackle Garrett Boles keys a unit that isn’t perfect but is pretty good across. Nix has a running game to support him, with J.K. Dobbins sitting on 442 yards and 4.9 yards-per-carry. Yet the second-year quarterback averages a meager 6.2 yards per attempt. That simply has to get better if Denver is going to take the next step.

THE CHAMP WOBBLES, BUT STILL STANDS

Kansas City may have already lost more games than they did in the entire regular season of 2024, but if you look under the hood at the Chiefs, they have a lot that’s coming together. Patrick Mahomes is getting the ball down the field a bit more than he was able to last year, and 36-year-old tight end Travis Kelce is seeing his yards-per-catch back up at 11.5. That’s getting back to closer to career norms after he dipped into single digits for the first time in ’24.

More big plays on offense is usually attributable to a quarterback having more time to throw and K.C. is getting some consistency on the offensive line. On the defensive side of the ball, a unit that was top-heavy dependent on a handful of players last year is getting more consistent contributions throughout the lineup. In fact, one of the stars that carried them a year ago, the great lineman Chris Jones, is off to a bit of a slow start in the PFF grades.

Kansas City has come through early challenges, they’re still right in the race, and they have a lot of component pieces coming together. The caveat—and it’s a big one—is that the running game has been terrible. When you a line that’s playing well, it’s inexcusable for your quarterback to be your leading rusher. Yet that’s what Mahomes is. The Chiefs need to get more production from their backs, or they need to find someone on the waiver wire. As good as Mahomes is, the weather in Kansas City can get brutal by November and the Chiefs need to be able to run the football.

PETE CARROLL’S SPOILER PROJECT

No one expected the Raiders to compete for this division title until Carroll can get a few more pieces in place, and with a 2-4 record, Las Vegas won’t contend for first place. They probably won’t contend for a playoff spot. However, they could have a big say in who ultimately does win this division or makes the postseason.

Rookie running back Ashton Jeanty is running the ball effectively. The receivers are grading out pretty well. While the defense has a lot of holes, they also have a legitimate star in edge rusher Maxx Crosby and are getting a strong year from linebacker Jamal Adams.

What’s holding Las Vegas back is that veteran quarterback Geno Smith is throwing interceptions all over the place. If Geno can keep himself under control, the Raiders can beat anyone. And this division race could come down to whether or not they play spoiler against any of the three contenders.

OUTLOOK: A 3-WAY DOGFIGHT TO THE FINISH

Betting markets see the Chiefs as a narrow favorite, at (+145), with the Chargers at (+175) and the Broncos (+220). It’s anybody’s race. I picked Los Angeles to dethrone Kansas City at the start of the year, and I certainly won’t change my mind as they sit tied for first. But in the back of my mind, I’m wondering if both the Bolts and Broncos missed the chance to drive a dagger in the Chiefs early.

The NFC East will be the final stop on our division tour. And with October offering both football’s early jousts and baseball’s grand finale, don’t miss the chance to travel into MLB’s great past. Our free download,  The LCS Chronicles, Vol. 1 (1969–80), a 20-page companion celebrating the early years of the League Championship Series, is available. Click here to learn more and download today.