NFL Notebook: Early Check-In – AFC South
This is the fifth of our NFL division check-ins as the 2025 season hits the one-third mark. Catch up with our earlier looks at the AFC North, AFC East, NFC South and NFC West as we continue our tour around the league.
When the season started, the AFC South looked pretty uninteresting. The Houston Texans would win it, get seeded 3 or 4 in the playoff bracket and lose in the first or second round. Simple as that. But instead, six weeks in, this has turned into one of the more compelling division races in the NFL.
The Indianapolis Colts have come blazing out of the gate. The Jacksonville Jaguars are playing consistent football and offering hope of revival. Ironically it was Houston, after an 0-3 start, that had to play their way back into the conversation.
While the Tennessee Titans, at 1-5, and having just fired head coach Brian Callahan, are primed for another run at the #1 overall draft pick, the other three teams all have a viable shot. Indy is 5-1, Jacksonville a step behind at 4-2, with Houston at 2-3. We pivot into the regular season’s middle movement with an exciting race, so let’s break down this AFC South power trio.
Indianapolis: Who saw Daniel Jones coming? He’s always completed a high percentage of his throws, so that impressive 72 percent rate isn’t out of the blue. But he washed out with the Giants because he couldn’t make his passes go for any distance. Not a problem so far—Jones is connecting for 8.3 yards per attempt, while still avoiding mistakes. In the meantime, Jonathan Taylor is leading the NFL in rushing behind an offensive line that is strong across, particularly left guard Quenton Nelson. Indy has scored more points than anyone in the league.
If you break the defense down piece by piece, you can find weaknesses, mainly at corner and at linebacker. The Colts do have some good defensive lineman, led by Laiatu Latu and DeForest Buckner. They’ve got a quality safety in Camryn Bynum. Thus far, new coordinator Lou Anarumo has turned this into the fourth-stingiest unit in the league. Anarumo, like Jones, is on a second chance, after leaving this same role in Cincinnati last year. But with the Bengals still playing awful defense, maybe Anarumo wasn’t the problem.
Jacksonville: We like Trevor Lawrence in this space, so when you just glance at their record, and watch lead him a clutch late drive on Monday Night Football to beat the Kansas City Chiefs, it’s easy to think that Trev is reviving his career. But a closer look says that Lawerence is getting carried by his defense. The Jags rank seventh in the NFL for points allowed. They get good play on the perimeter of their 4-3 scheme with ends Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker. The linebacking is good, even with Devin Lloyd out for a couple of weeks. The secondary is a bit more hit and miss, but Jourdan Lewis is a solid cover corner you can build a game plan around.
Meanwhile, Lawrence’s 61 percent completion rate, 6.3 yards-per-attempt and 2.4 percent interception rate are all below the league average. The lack of quality receivers isn’t helping, but when you’re a former #1 overall pick and once appeared to be a rising star, and are getting respectable offensive line play, you have to carry your receivers. We’ve got to see more from a quarterback we’re rooting for as the season wears on.
Houston: DeMeco Ryans made his name as an assistant on the defensive side of the ball. He brought that with him to the head coaching job in Houston where he’s 2-for-2 in winning the AFC South. And he’s doing it again this year, producing the best defense in the NFL through the first six weeks. Danielle Hunter is an elite pass rusher at defensive end, but it shouldn’t be overlooked just how good the front four is all the way across. The Texans have some soft points in the back seven, but you can do a lot with a defensive line like this. Ryan is and so is strong safety Jalen Pitre, who has intercepted four passes.
Offensively, Houston is struggling. C.J. Stroud is playing pretty well at quarterback in spite of big problems on the offensive line. But, as if to prove that QB play really isn’t the be-all end-all of the sport, the line problems and an injury to Joe Mixon have hampered the Texan running game and they rank just 22nd in points scored. The line problems are also restricting the time Stroud has to open up the deep passing game, thereby minimizing the effectiveness of big-play target Nico Collins.
OUTLOOK
Houston’s slow start turned them from favorites to win the division to now getting healthy 6-1 odds in the betting markets to three-peat as AFC South champs. We don’t wager here in this space and use the odds exclusively as a tool to understand what informed observers (linesmakers and those who put serious money behind their opinions) think. That said, I think that’s dismissing the Texans a little too quickly. Particularly when Jacksonville is only a 2-1 shot.
It’s understandable that Indy is now the (-150) favorite to win this division. But I’m not ready to abandon my preseason pick just yet. Houston survived the 0-3 start, got a couple of wins, and there’s a long way to go. I think they still pull it out. More important for fans, the AFC South has become really fun to watch over the coming weeks.
The NFC North will be our next stop on the division tour. And with October offering both football’s early jousts and baseball’s grand finale, don’t miss the chance to travel into MLB’s great past. Our free download, The LCS Chronicles, Vol. 1 (1969–80), a 20-page companion celebrating the early years of the League Championship Series, is available. Click here to learn more and download today.