NFL Notebook: Early Check-In – AFC North

This is the first of a series of posts checking on each division after six weeks, the one-third point of the NFL regular season.

The AFC North looked like one of football’s glamour divisions–Baltimore a Super Bowl threat, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati playoff hopefuls, and only Cleveland consigned to the basement. But at this early checkpoint, the AFC North has collectively collapsed under the weight of injuries, notably to its star quarterbacks.

Lamar Jackson is down in Baltimore, and the Ravens have suffered an epic rash of injuries. In arguably the most astonishing development in all professional sports in 2025, Baltimore is 1-5 and staring at a lost season. Joe Burrow is out in Cincinnati, the Bengals are 2-4 and show no signs of turning around. The Browns, with the league’s most anemic offense and a 1-5 record have been what we thought.

That leaves Pittsburgh.

The Steelers are 4-1. As we move into the season’s second movement, the questions now are twofold—can Pittsburgh solidify their hold on the AFC North before the stretch drive or will get this tight? And can they elevate themselves above a garden-variety winner of a shattered division and become a legitimate Super Bowl contender?

THE STEELERS: CONSISTENT OR MEDICORE?

Right now, Pittsburgh looks very much like a so-so division champ that would lose a home game to a good wild-card team in the playoffs. They rank near the middle of the league in both points scored and points allowed. While Aaron Rodgers has played respectable football, the 42-year-old future Hall of Famer looks more the part of the “age 42” then the “future Hall of Famer”. His 2.2 interception rate is a little higher than what we’re accustomed to, and something of a surprise for a veteran quarterback.

Pittsburgh also has problems at both offensive tackle spots, something that hinders big-play passing. D.K. Metcalf is the only notable player at the skill position. The Steelers aren’t going to blow anyone out.

But we knew from the start it would be about defense in the Steel City. And they still have stars on this side of the ball. There has been no more valuable player in the AFC North so far this year than T.J. Watt. Cam Heyward and Alex Highsmith continue to help Watt lead a destructive edge game. Jalen Ramsey’s acquisition has elevated the secondary.

The Steelers play good defense, they’re well-coached and I suspect Rodgers will get the mistakes under control. That’s a formula that can avoid a major collapse, although they’re going to need better offensive line play and more explosive possibilities if we’re going to talk about a Super Bowl.

BALTIMORE’S BYE ARRIVES JUST IN TIME

Betting markets haven’t rushed to call this race just yet. The Steelers are a solid (-160) favorite to bring it home. But their historic nemesis in Baltimore is still given a reasonable chance, at (+160).

It’s easy to see why. The Ravens have a well-timed bye week, one that will allow Lamar and linebacker Roquan Smith to get back in the lineup. It won’t solve all their injury problems, but it will solve the two biggest ones.

Baltimore’s schedule was tough in the early going—trips to Buffalo and Kansas City, home games with Detroit and the Los Angeles Rams. The sailing gets a little easier on the far side of the bye.

Furthermore, the tough games the Ravens want on their schedule are still ahead—the two dates with Pittsburgh. And the first of those isn’ t until December 7. Baltimore need only cut this four-game deficit in half by then to control their own fate coming down the stretch. Getting healthier and playing an easier schedule is the ideal way to do that.

CINCINNATI’S FLAWS EXPOSED

I can’t take Cincinnati’s turnaround chances seriously, even if they did somehow manage to beat Pittsburgh this coming Thursday night. Burrow isn’t back until mid-December. And from the beginning, the Bengals were top-heavy dependent on their quarterback, receiver J’Marr Chase, and defensive end Trey Hendrickson. The depth of talent (or lack thereof) was going to be an issue no matter what. Now, it’s a fatal flaw and I would imagine significant changes are coming to Cincinnati before 2026 begins.

CRUCIAL WEEKS AHEAD

But I’m not ready to write off the Ravens just yet. We want to see if they can come out of the bye and face a six-game stretch of Chicago, Miami, Minnesota, Cleveland, NY Jets, and Cincinnati. Go 5-1 and you’re back to .500 for the stretch drive.

And for Pittsburgh, we know they’ll be consistent, but during that same stretch, they host Green Bay and Indianapolis and play the Chargers on the road. Let’s see the Steelers show they can elevate themselves into the top tier of contenders.

Right now, I’m at where the betting markets are. It’s foolish to see anyone but Pittsburgh as the favorite. But these next several weeks are worth watching.

UP NEXT

The NFC South will be our next stop on the division tour. And with October offering both football’s early jousts and baseball’s grand finale, don’t miss our MLB postseason coverage — including a free download of The LCS Chronicles, Vol. 1 (1969–80), a 20-page companion celebrating the early years of the League Championship Series. Click here to learn more and download today.