NFL Notebook: Early Check-In – AFC East
This is the third of our NFL division check-ins as the 2025 season hits the one-third mark. Catch up with our earlier looks at the AFC North and NFC South as we continue our tour around the league.
When the season started, the AFC East was Buffalo & The Three Dwarfs. At this early checkpoint in the season, that’s three-quarters true. The Bills, as expected, are a Super Bowl contender. The Miami Dolphins and New York Jets are train wrecks, with a single win between them. But the New England Patriots have stepped up and made this division a two-team race as we move into the latter part of October.
In fact, the Patriots have done more than make it a race. They are tied with the Bills at 4-2, and by virtue of their upset win in Buffalo on Sunday Night in Week 5, New England would win the AFC East if the season ended today.
DRAKE MAYE: FROM PROMISE TO PRODUCTION
The Patriots were optimistic about how Drake Maye progressed during his rookie year of 2024, an otherwise lost season in Foxboro. That optimism has proven well-founded. Maye has a completion rate of 73 percent. He generates 8.5 yards-per-attempt. With a 10-2 TD/INT ratio, he’s only been intercepted on 1.1% of his throws. That’s the profile of an MVP candidate.
New England is also playing well defensively, ranking seventh in the league for points allowed. The key has been the free agent acquisition of Harold Landry, who played for head coach Mike Vrabel in Tennessee and was anxious to do so here in Foxboro when Vrabel got the Patriot job. Most of the Patriot defense is the usual NFL blend of decency and weak spots. Landry’s disruptive playmaking skill on the edge is what makes the difference.
The offensive line was a disaster in 2024 and something the Patriots sought to shore up in the draft when they took tackle Will Campbell. Between the rookie Campbell and the veteran Morgan Moses at the other tackle, New England is getting respectable play on the edges of the line. They’re getting even better play on the interior from guard Mike Onwenu, whom Pro Football Focus grades out as a top 10 player at his position through six weeks.
New England has its flaws. The running game has a tendency to disappear. Most important, this is still a young, developing team. How will they handle what are now rising expectations, and can they stay consistent over what is a very long season? That’s what we’re going to find out. But the Patriots have given their fan base hope.
BUFFALO IS STILL THE BENCHMARK
It’s nice to get excited about New England and talk about tiebreakers if the season ended today. But make no mistake, Buffalo is still the team to beat in this division. They played some sloppy football in that Sunday Night home loss to the Patriots, and their bye week arrives at the right time with some nagging injuries, especially to tight end Dalton Kincaid, coming after a disappointing Monday Night loss to Atlanta. But the Bills’ assets still start with last season’s MVP, Josh Allen.
Allen’s 69 percent completion rate and 7.8 yards-per-attempt are both comfortably above the NFL average. His interception rate has ticked up to 2.2% and needs to get cleaned up. But he’s still someone that an opposing defensive coordinator dreads to see get outside the pocket, with his ability to create on the move and to lift an offense whose receiving corps is otherwise rather pedestrian.
As we celebrate Allen, let’s not overlook what James Cook is doing in the backfield. Cook has already pounded out 537 yards and is averaging a healthy 5.0 yards-per-attempt. In a region of the country where the weather is going to take a marked turn in the coming months, Buffalo’s ability to run the football stands in marked contrast to New England.
On a directly related point, the Bills are strong in the trenches. PFF grades them out strongly on both the offensive and defensive fronts.
The challenge for Buffalo is going to be the same as it was last year—can a defensive back seven somehow come together? Other than weakside linebacker Shaq Thompson, the play here has been very ragged. It’s frankly a credit to head coach Sean McDermott and his defensive orientation that the Bills are even able to rank 17th in the league for points allowed. The organization sought to address this in the offseason, but thus far, the problems persist.
DOLPHINS & JETS: DIFFERENT PROBLEMS, SAME FRUSTRATION
We won’t waste too much time on the Dolphins and Jets, but they do each have storylines worth at least keeping an eye on. It’s hard to see how much longer Miami head coach Mike McDaniel can keep his job. They grade out poorly almost everywhere and even before wide receiver Tyreek Hill was lost for the season, the Fish couldn’t get anything going in the downfield passing game. A complete lack of protection for Tua Tagovailoa is the culprit.
For the Jets, is a quarterback change coming? Justin Fields can’t make big plays. While he does an admirable job of avoiding mistakes (zero interceptions) and he uses his legs well, his 65 percent completion rate is just not efficient enough given his propensity for short throws. You can be a good quarterback with a low 6.5 yards-per-attempt like Fields has, but that completion rate needs to be around 70 percent.
In the first year under head coach Aaron Glenn, New York is in a different place than Miami and will likely be treating the rest of the season as auditions for next season, rather than deciding who their next coach will be.
THE FORECAST: BUFFALO STILL FAVORED, NEW ENGLAND CLOSING
The betting markets still believe in Buffalo, having the Bills a comfortable (-225) favorite to win the AFC East and one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl. I’d concur with that. But New England, now at (+175) in the division, has turned themselves into a viable contender. Now, we’re just waiting to see if they can handle expectations.
The NFC West will be our next stop on the division tour. And with October offering both football’s early jousts and baseball’s grand finale, don’t miss our MLB postseason coverage — including a free download of The LCS Chronicles, Vol. 1 (1969–80), a 20-page companion celebrating the early years of the League Championship Series. Click here to learn more and download today.