NBA Notebook: 2nd Round Previews
The second round of the NBA playoffs tips off on Sunday evening. Here’s our look at the matchups:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Cleveland (-425) vs. Indiana
The Cavs are a healthy favorite, but that health does not extend to the toe of point guard Darius Garland. He missed the end of the Miami series and is still listed as questionable. It’s tough to imagine him sitting out too much, but how effective will he be going up against Tyrese Haliburton? Indiana is well-balanced, well-coached, and they won two playoff rounds a year ago as an underdog. I see this matchup as more competitive than the series price indicates.
What holds me back with the Pacers is the issue of rebounding. Cleveland’s season-long numbers on the boards were excellent, while Indiana’s were poor. How often does a close series come down to a big offensive rebound? Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen played great basketball for the Cavs in the first round. So did Pascal Siakam for the Pacers, but his interior mate, Myles Turner, can be hit-and-miss. I think that’s the difference in what promises to be a great series. Cavs in 7.
Boston (-800) vs. New York
New York struggled to put away Detroit and were it not for a controversial call at the end of Game 4 might well have lost the series. Boston showed they could get physical, winning an old-fashioned street fight with Orlando. The Celtics also get Jrue Holiday, a key piece of their backcourt defense, back from injury for this round. Furthermore, the Knicks’ biggest weakness is that their three-point defense is one of the league’s worst—while the Celtics are a premier shooting team from behind the arc. All of which is to say, Boston’s hefty odds are justifiable.
Do the Knicks have any path to winning? They can count on Jalen Brunson to be aggressive and electric. OG Anunoby played well against the Pistons and can open up opposing defenses with his corner shooting. Josh Hart is tough-minded. But none of that will be enough to beat the Celtics. The path to New York winning has to revolve around Karl Anthony-Towns being engaged and effective on both ends of the floor, and both inside and outside. His track record suggests he’ll do that a little bit, but not enough to sustain itself over a long series. Celtics in 5.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Oklahoma City (-700) vs. Denver
We have the likely MVP, in Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, going up against Denver’s Nikola Jokic, still the consensus best player in the game. Both are surrounded by quality supporting casts. The Thunder have been dominant all season and are looking for a playoff breakthrough. The Nuggets, while going through the chaos of a late-season coaching change, are battle-tested and just two years removed from a championship. This is an exceptionally compelling matchup and much closer than the betting markets seem to think.
Denver’s path to winning has to come through the boards. They are an excellent rebounding team, while Oklahoma City ranked a pedestrian 16th in rebound rate. It’s not the fault of the interior players—Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein are solid and played well in the first round against Memphis. But the Thunder don’t get a sustained attack on the glass. What they can do however, is defend the three-point line—best in the league in that category. The Nuggets do not defend well, either outside the arc or inside. That’s the difference in this series. Thunder in 6.
Minnesota vs. TBD
Golden State and Houston play Sunday night (8:30 PM ET, TNT) to fill out this round.