NBA Notebook: 1st Round Recaps

Here’s a snap breakdown of how and why each series ended as it did. We’ll update this post as they conclude:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Cleveland over Miami 4-0
This was never expected to be a series and it never came remotely close to being one. Cleveland won the four games by an average margin of almost thirty points. They won the two road games in Miami by a combined margin of 92 points. The only game the margin was in single digits was Game 2, and in that one the Cavs had a 17-point lead at the half. They shot 52 percent from the floor and a red-hot 44 percent from behind the arc. Cleveland enjoyed an average per-game margin of (+6) on turnovers and had steady edges everywhere else.

All of this came in spite of Darius Garland missing the last two games with a toe injury, something that is still ongoing as the Cavs move into the second round. But it didn’t matter here. Donovan Mitchell averaged 23ppg. Jarrett Allen controlled the interior with 14 points/10 rebounds per game. Ty Jerome, whose three-point shooting off the bench, will be vital moving forward, hit 10-for-20 from trey range. Miami’s only positive was Bam Adebayo averaging an 18/11 line. Tyler Herro struggled, shooting 41 percent, capped off by a 1-for-10 night in the Game 4 conclusion.

Indiana over Milwaukee 4-1
This series is going to be remembered for the Bucks’ epic collapse in Game 5, where they had a 30-13 lead after the first quarter, blew that, again had the game in command down the stretch, blew that, and then lost in overtime. But Game 4 is what will stand out for me. In a must-win spot on their home floor and a chance to make this a series, Milwaukee no-showed on defense. Indiana shot 60 percent from the field and also outrebounded the Bucks. The failure to defend or rebound is often about intensity and Milwaukee didn’t bring it when the season was on the line in front of their home fans.

Or, maybe the Pacers are just better, deeper and more well-rounded. They shot 50 percent for the series as a whole. While Giannis Antetokounmpo was magnificent (38 points/15 rebounds/7 assists for the series), Indiana had five different players averaging at least 15ppg a night. Pascal Siakam set the tone by controlling the interior in the two home wins that opened the series, but everyone from Tyrese Haliburton to Myles Turner had their moments. Indiana is a good team. Milwaukee has one great player. Sometimes, in the NBA, the latter is enough. It wasn’t here.

New York over Detroit 4-2
An exciting and tense series had a lot of swings from start to finish. New York needed a dominant fourth quarter to win Game 1, and they won dramatic and controversial thrillers in Games 3 & 4. The Game 6 clincher was a momentum-changing heart-stopper from start to finish before the Knicks finally got the last word. From the standpoint of a statistical aggregate, the key difference was that New York was 66/181 from three-point range for the series while Detroit was 61/188. It’s not a dramatic difference, but in a series where the games were close, it was the deciding factor.

Individually, the constant was Jalen Brunson. He went for 30-plus five times and hit 40 points in Game 6. Cade Cunningham, the Brunson-in-waiting for Detroit, averaged a 25/8/8 line for the series. Brunson and Cunningham aren’t always the most efficient players and they shoot in the low 40s, but they both bring an intensity and aggression that can’t be measured. Karl Anthony-Towns, by contrast was efficient—a 20/10 per-game average for the series and shooting close to 50 percent. He was also nowhere to be found in the final two games.

Boston over Orlando 4-1
This series mostly went to form. Orlando has talent and they were competitive in every game. Even the ones where the final score looks decisive (Games 1 & 5), the Magic actually led at halftime. But the Celtics are a championship team that has learned how to close. They won Game 2 with Jayson Tatum sitting out with an ankle injury. When Tatum came back, he dropped 35-plus each of the final three games. Jaylen Brown averaged a 23/8 line. And Derrick White continued to show why he’s one of the underrated, tough players in the league, with a 17/5/5 average for the series.

The stat that will stand out the most is Orlando’s complete ineptitude behind the arc—26 percent for the series, and an epic cold spell during the third quarter of Game 5 that effectively ended their season. What also needs to stand out is that the Magic took the exact same number of three-point shots as the Celtics for the series (156 apiece). Whether you can win in today’s game without shooting a lot of treys is up for debate, but it’s fair to say this—if you can’t shoot it (and Orlando can’t, as this performance, while colder than normal, was still in character) at least try to win the game the old-fashioned way.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Oklahoma City over Memphis 4-0
The Thunder set the tone by winning the first game by 51 points, and closed out a sweep, so I don’t want to get carried away with thinking of how this series might have been different. But Ja Morant’s hip injury in Game 3 came when the Grizzlies were up by 26 points in the first half of a game they eventually lost. Morant also sat out Game 4, a game his team lost by two. At the very least, the injury kept Memphis from stretching this out a little more.

But credit where it’s due—OKC played exceptional defense throughout the series, forcing 77 turnovers in four games, and holding the Grizzlies to 42 percent shooting. Between Morant’s injury and Desmond Bane’s poor shooting, Memphis couldn’t get the backcourt play they needed. Further credit to the Thunder for sweeping a series where Shai Gilgeous-Alexander only shot 40 percent. Jalen Williams stepped up, averaged 23ppg and was the best player in the series.

Denver over LA Clippers 4-3
The Clippers will rue this series. They appeared to be the better team for the first four games, and this could have been a sweep. Los Angeles gave away Game 1 with turnovers, and they lost a heartbreaker in Game 4. They had the Nuggets on their back foot until Aaron Gordon’s buzzer-beater putback won that fourth game. For the final three games, it was a more typical NBA playoff series where the home team stays in control.

Denver can be heartened by the fact that their wins in Games 5 & 7 came without dominant performances by Nikola Jokic. The big man was terrific, to be sure, averaging a 24/12/10 line for the series. But he was below 20 points in each of the final two wins. Jamal Murray hit 43 in Game 5 and a well-balanced attack with six players scoring at least 16 delivered in Game 7. Kawhi Leonard had a good series for the Clips (25/8/5). But James Harden had another postseason disappointment—he shot just 44 percent for the series and was a 2-for-8 no-show in the finale.

Minnesota over LA Lakers 4-1
We knew the Lakers, even with Luka and LeBron, were a flawed team in terms of depth and overall defense. But just how flawed wasn’t perhaps appreciated until the Timberwolves dispatched L.A. with surprising ease. Minnesota didn’t even play its best basketball—while Anthony Edwards got his numbers (27 points/8 rebounds/6 assists per game), he only shot 42 percent. He was only 5-for-19 in Game 5 and Los Angeles still managed to lose a must-win home game. Otherwise, the T-Wolves did it with big nights from Jaden McDaniels in Games 1 & 3, and a monster 27/24 line from center Rudy Gobert in Game 5.

If you look at the numbers in the aggregate, it’s tough to be too hard on Luka and LeBron. The former averaged a 30/7/6 line and shot 45 percent, which is my threshold for “good enough.” LeBron shot 49 percent and his stat line was 25/9/6. The poor play of Austin Reaves was a bigger big-picture story. But in a major indictment for the two stars, the fourth quarter failures were a theme. Minnesota’s control of the final period keyed their final three wins. That shouldn’t happen with veterans as accomplished in postseason play as the L.A. stars. It did here.

Golden State over Houston 4-3
A championship-tested veteran star delivered, and a young up-and-comer disappeared. That’s a narrative we’ve seen more than once in the NBA playoffs, and it defined the Warriors-Rockets series. Steph Curry was vintage, hitting 39 percent from three-point range for the series and averaging a 24/6/7 line. By contrast, Houston’s Jalen Green, after a 38-point eruption in Game 2, simply disappeared for the rest of the series. Even with Rocket center Alperen Senguin playing brilliantly (21/12/5) and Fred Van Vleet shooting the ball well, Houston isn’t deep enough to overcome a non-performance by a key player like Green.

The Warriors also did what battle-tested teams do and that’s find someone who comes off the bench and delivers big. This time it was Buddy Hield in Game 7. The three-point sharpshooter was surreal, going 9-for-11 from behind the arc on the road when it mattered most. Golden State isn’t what they once were—but there’s still enough of those intangibles left to keep moving on.