NBA Notebook: 1st Round Previews

The NBA playoffs officially tip off today. Our broad overview of all 16 teams is here. Now it’s time to dig into the specific matchups. What follows is an overview of each first round series, which will run until the first weekend of May. Betting odds are listed in parentheses next to the favorite.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

(1)Cleveland (-2500) – (8)Miami
The Cavs are still a young favorite, but they got tested a little bit last year, winning a seven-game series with Orlando in the first round. Cleveland isn’t so young that they’ll cough up a series where they’re this big a favorite. Miami’s path to winning a game or two has to rest on the Cavalier guard combo of Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell having some poor shooting nights. But the Heat defense, while respectable, is nothing notable, including on the perimeter. This is not the same Miami team who made the Finals out of the play-in tournament in 2023. Cavs in 4.

(4)Indiana (-210) – (5)Milwaukee
A rematch from last year, this promises—as you would expect from the 4-5 spot on the draw—to produce one of the first round’s compelling series. The Pacers have homecourt, they have a point guard who can control tempo in Tyrese Haliburton and they have quality big men in Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner. They also, for the second straight year, get a Bucks team with a big injury looming over them. Last year, Giannis Antetokounmpo missed most of the first round. This year, Damian Lillard’s status is uncertain.

But the underdog Bucks have more than a few cards to play. Giannis continues to be one of the league’s great players and that alone gives Milwaukee a puncher’s chance against anyone they play. Given Lilliard’s ball-hog tendencies, I’m not sold that him being on the shelf is a completely bad thing. Indiana, in spite of their good big men, is not a good rebounding team overall. I’m going to lean to the Pacers—I give Rick Carlisle a narrow edge over Doc Rivers on the sidelines. But not by much. Pacers in 7.

(3)New York (-425) – (6)Detroit
The Knicks are a flawed favorite, and the Pistons are a nice story as the underdog. But I don’t know that Detroit is well-suited to take advantage of New York’s weaknesses. The Knicks’ biggest flaw is that they don’t defend the three-point line well. While the Pistons have some shooters, they rank poorly in percentage from behind the arc.

New York’s other potential weakness is that Karl Anthony-Towns, as great a regular season player as he is, has some question marks overshadowing him in the playoffs. But he played on a Minnesota team that made the conference finals last year, so I don’t see any potential problem showing up in the first round. And in either case, Jalen Brunson is about as mentally tough a player as there is in the league. Detroit’s on the rise and this will be a deserved showcase for Cade Cunningham. But that’s the extent of it. Knicks in 5.

(2)Boston (-5000) – (7)Orlando
The Celtics are the defending champs, have no serious weaknesses and have two legitimate stars in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Either one can take over a game at a key moment and both are comfortable letting the other be the hero. Boston’s not losing this series. What’s more intriguing is whether an Orlando team that’s been riddled by injuries could grab a win or even two. The Magic play exceptional team defense. The duo of Pablo Banchero and Franz Wagner give them legitimate star power. My big issue with the Magic is they have one of the worst three-point defenses in the league. That’s particularly fatal against Boston. Celtics in 5.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

(1)Oklahoma City (-1800) – (8)Memphis
A Thunder team that won a league-best 68 games, has the presumptive MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and plays the NBA’s best team defense isn’t getting a ton of respect in the odds for a matchup against an 8-seed. Although that might be more respect for Memphis. With 48 wins and high rankings in both offensive and defensive efficiency, along with rebounding, the Grizzlies are no ordinary 8-seed. The backcourt duo of Ja Morant and Desmond Bane can cause problems for anyone.

It’s still hard to see an upset happening here. Oklahoma City is young, but they got a taste of playoff heartbreak last year when they dropped a tough series to Dallas in the second round. The Thunder, like the Cavs, might see their youth manifest itself later, but not here. OKC has great rim protectors in Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, and Jalen Williams can pick up any slack if Gilgeous-Alexander has an off-night. Thunder in 5.

(4)Denver – (5)LA Clippers (-125)
I’m going to guess the chaos in Denver—making a coaching change with just a few games left in the regular season is the reason Nikola Jokic is an underdog, in spite of having homecourt advantage. But there’s another good reason for betting markets to like the Clippers—while the Nuggets have the best player on the floor, the Clips have more good ones.

James Harden leads a balanced attack, that includes a high-quality center in Ivica Zubac, a prolific wingman in Norman Powell, and a championship-tested veteran in Kawhi Leonard. Los Angeles is a vastly superior defensive team to Denver—who wasn’t all that great on this end of the floor even when they won the title in 2023.

There is one big caveat. It’s the phrase “James Harden leads.” NBA playoff games do often come down to which team leader comes through. Do you bet on Jokic or Harden? This is the most intriguing matchup of the entire first round. I’ll bet on the Joker to get at least one series win under his belt. Nuggets in 7.

(3)LA Lakers (-200) – (6)Minnesota
Do you ride with big names and franchise history? Or do you look at overall team play and fundamentals? I don’t mean that question sarcastically. We’ve seen it go both ways in the NBA and it’s what’s in play here. The Timberwolves are the underdog, even though they have better team rankings in offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, rebounding and both three-point shooting and defense. And they do have a legit star in Anthony Edwards, who dominated the first two rounds of the playoffs a year ago.

The Lakers have LeBron James and Luka Doncic. And, to be fair, season-long team numbers won’t factor in the late acquisition of Luka and any time spent getting everyone used to playing together. Los Angeles also has an underrated star in Austin Reaves. This is an interesting series, but I can’t go against LeBron and Luka this early. Lakers in 6.

(2)Houston – (7)Golden State (-190)
It seems like a lot of disrespect to the Rockets, to be a betting underdog as the 2-seed in the first round. Although we should point out there’s only a four-game difference between Houston and Golden State. The West was jam-packed after Oklahoma City all season long. And, of course, there’s a lot of rings on the Warrior side, with Steph Curry and Draymond Green still in the lineup and Steve Kerr still coaching. Plus, Jimmy Butler has enjoyed more than his share of playoff success, carrying some Miami teams into the Finals in recent years.

Houston doesn’t have that. Their best players, Jalen Green in the backcourt and Alperen Senguin in the post, are still looking to establish themselves. What the Rockets do have is an exceptional fundamental basketball team—they excel at defense and rebounding the ball. Their own coach, Ime Udoka, got to the Finals with Boston in 2022. I think the Rockets can hold off the proud Warrior veterans. Rockets in 6.

CONCLUSION

To sum up the series based on competitiveness then, the picks are as follows:

To win in 4 (Cleveland)
To win in 5 (Boston, New York, Oklahoma City)
To win in 6 (LA Lakers, Houston)
To win in 7 (Indiana, Denver)

Let’s get on with the first round! Our next NBA post in this space will come as each series ends and we unpack what happened and why. We’ll also have an NHL post previewing each series in that first round coming later today.