NBA Notebook: Playoff Overview
The NBA playoffs tip off on Saturday, and we’ll preview and recap each round as it unfolds. This post serves as our starting point with a concise overview of each team as we get underway. The teams are grouped by their standing in the betting markets, as reflected in the championship odds posted on Vegas Insider.
Please note that any references to ranks in offense or defense are based on efficiency, which measures points per possession, as opposed to the raw totals.
THE FAVORITES
Oklahoma City (+170)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averages 33 points/5 rebounds/6 assists per game and will almost certainly win the MVP award. Jalen Williams is good for 22/5/5 a night, and there is a well-balanced cast around them that takes good care of the basketball—fewest turnovers in the league. A pair of seven-footers, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, protect the rim for the NBA’s top-ranked defense.
But that height has not led to rebounding dominance—OKC is a little subpar on rebound rate. And their ball movement, is measured by assists, isn’t great. If they stumble, look for those to be the measurable reasons why. The intangible reasons for concern would be youth—Oklahoma City has no major contributor over the age of 26.
Boston (+190)
The defending champs are renowned for their three-point gunning—the most attempts behind the arc in the league. That shouldn’t overshadow how good they are at defending the arc, where they are near the top of the NBA. Or that they rebound well and play good defense. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown continue to be stars that can carry the load, Kristaps Porzingis can do the same, and a slew of battle-tested cast members are headed up by Derrick White and Jrue Holiday—both of whom personify toughness.
You live by the three and you die by the three, and that will be the concern for the Celtics. While Tatum averages a 27/9/6 line, he does take an average of 10 treys a night and only hits 34 percent. Brown shoots six treys a game and his average is even worse, at 32 percent. The Celts could benefit from letting efficient shooters—Porzingis, along with Peyton Pritchard and Sam Hauser off the bench do more of the long-range gunning. They are at their best when Tatum and Brown attack the basket.
THE OUTLIER
Cleveland (6-1)
With 64 wins and the #1 seed in the East, the Cavs probably belong on the top line, but the betting markets place them somewhere between that tier, and the rest of the contenders. Either way, I don’t think anyone would be surprised if Cleveland won it all. They have the league’s most efficient offense. They shoot a lot three-pointers (4th most) and they shoot them well (2nd-best percentage). Most of the shooting is done by the stars, Darius Garland, and Donovan Mitchell in the backcourt, who are each 20-plus per game scorers. De’Andre Hunter is a valuable and efficient shooter off the bench, as is Ty Jerome. Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are a force down low, combining to average 33 points/19 rebounds per game.
Where the Cavs could have issues is defending the three-point shot, where they rank a more pedestrian 13th. They are also a little short on depth—both figuratively, with Hunter and Jerome the only notable players. And literally, with no reliable backups to Mobley and Allen. Fatigue and fouls could be issues with the big men.
This is the first key break point in the odds. If anyone other than the Thunder, Celtics or Cavs wins the title, it’s a pretty big shocker.
THE PROUD VETERANS
The next bloc of teams is marked by some aging vets hoping for one more run to glory…
LA Lakers (14-1)
It’s tough to know what to make of Los Angeles’ season-long numbers, given the relative recency of Luka Doncic’s acquisition and the fact that 40-year-old LeBron James surely does some pacing during the long 82-game haul. It does seem fair to at least guess that Luka’s arrival means the Lakers’ are better than the 12th-most efficient offense in the league. It’s equally fair to say that Luka’s arrival means that L.A.’s 14th-place ranking for defensive efficiency is, at the very least, no better.
Austin Reaves can be easily overlooked here, but the two-guard is a 20ppg scorer himself. Rui Hachimura is another player to keep an eye on. A forward who can shoot the three-ball and get a few bounds, Hachimura is the kind of player who only needs to be a difference maker one time in a short series. Overall, I think we’ve reached a somewhat surreal point where the Lakers and LeBron James are actually a little underrated.
Golden State (16-1)
The Warriors are a well-coached veteran team that plays good fundamental basketball. They rank well defensively, they generate a lot of assists with their ball movement and they minimize turnovers. Steph Curry still fires away—his 11 treys a night are the most in the league. And he does it well, still hitting 40 percent. Jimmy Butler doesn’t shoot the three-ball, but he efficiently churns out 18ppg.
Golden State’s core problem is that they are too young or too old—Curry is 36, Butler 35, and Draymond Green is 34. On the flip side, the emerging players, Moses Moody Brandon Podziemski and Jonathan Kuminga are in their early 20s. That’s not the profile of a championship team or even one ready to run deep into the postseason.
THE DARK HORSES
New York (25-1)
The acquisition of Karl-Anthony Towns prior to the start of the season has been a boon for the Knicks. Towns, who can score from the post and from behind the arc, gives the Knicks a legitimate two-man attack, with Jalen Brunson leading the way. New York ranks fifth in the league for offensive efficiency. Brunson plays with high aggression and intensity, while Towns brings the efficient shooting. The Knicks don’t shoot a lot of three-pointers, comparatively speaking, but they shoot them well.
What they don’t do as well is play defense. Head coach Tom Thibodeau used to routinely turn out some great defensive teams with the Bulls. But that was over a decade ago, and Thibs’ teams haven’t played that kind of D sense.
Denver (25-1)
Only two years removed from a title, and with the best player in the game, Denver has somehow managed to be in chaos. Head coach Mike Malone was fired with three games to go in the regular season, and the front office is being gutted. The Nuggets have the talent to win the whole thing—with Nikola Jokic going for a 30/13/10 average, you can argue he should take home another MVP, even if we know OKC’s Alexander will win it. Jamal Murray is still as good of a second star as there is in the game. Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon are no slouches. Denver has the horses .
But in addition to the complete instability and unpredictability, they don’t play defense very well. And Russell Westbrook has spent his entire career as a player just good enough to be dangerous. Now, he comes off the Nuggets bench.
LA Clippers (30-1)
Speaking of just good enough to be dangerous, does anyone fit that definition better than James Harden? Unlike Westbrook, who is a role player, Harden is still someone the Clippers rely on to carry the load. He averaged 23/6/9 this season. Norman Powell is an excellent backcourt running mate, a 22ppg scorer and prolific three-point shooter. Ivica Zubac is a solid center, both scoring and rebounding. The Clips are well-coached under Tyron Lue, and if Kawhi Leonard could wake up some echoes, the “other team” in Los Angeles can make some noise.
But to do that they have to move the ball and take care of it. The Clippers rank in the league’s lower third for both assists and turnovers. If they do that, and if Harden can finally have his moment in the playoffs, this can be a legitimate dark horse contender.
THE LONG SHOTS
Minnesota (50-1)
In a league that has come to revolve around the three-point line, the Timberwolves execute well on both sides of the ball. They take a lot of threes (fifth-most), they are good at shooting them (fourth-best percentage) and they defend the arc (sixth-best percentage against). They have a signature star in Anthony Edwards, and a nice frontcourt combo with Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle. That’s the profile of a team that can at least be competitive.
Randle, along with Jaden McDaniels, do take quite a few treys, given their low 30s shooting percentage. Which particular players shoot the three-ball will play a role in their success. The T-Wolves also have the same issue the Clippers do with moving the ball—they aren’t strong on either assists or turnovers, so the offense could bog down.
Houston (75-1)
The Rockets play tough defense, they go to the boards, and they take care of the basketball. They’re well-coached, with Ime Udoka, who went to the Finals with Boston in 2022. They have a quality big man in Alperen Sengun, who averages a 19/10/5 line and a two-guard in Jalen Green who scores 21ppg. Houston’s 52 wins are the fourth-best in the league.
Why the long odds then? In a league driven by stars, especially in the playoffs, The Rockets really don’t have any. Their offensive efficiency ranks just 20th and that tracks with their three-point shooting percentage. Fred Van Vleet is a solid veteran point guard, but are you really going to advance deep relying on him shooting eight treys a game? Betting markets don’t think so.
Indiana (75-1)
Rick Carlisle led the Pacers to the conference finals last season and that group is pretty much back intact. Tyrese Haliburton is one of the NBA’s better point guards, averaging a 19/4/9 line and the Pacers rank well in both assists and turnovers. Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner give Indiana a potent duo down low. They take care of the ball, and while the Pacers are judicious about shooting the three, they are efficient when they do it.
The problem? Rebounding. Indiana is 28th in the league in rebound rate. If the big men close out possessions and get second chances, the Pacers could enjoy another run. If not, the season probably ends when they give up a backbreaking three-point shot off an offensive rebound.
THE UBER LONG SHOTS
Milwaukee (100-1)
We’ve got a team still just four years removed from a title, with an all-timer in Giannis Antetokounmpo still in his prime (30/12/7 per-game average). You have a head coach in Doc Rivers who’s won been to two Finals and won a championship of his own. That’s not a bad starting point for 100-1 odds.
The status of Damian Lillard is the biggest concern for Milwaukee. He’s been out with blood clots and his status remains uncertain—the hope is that he’ll come back fairly quickly in the first round. But will that be in time? And even if he does, there is nothing the Bucks do as a team that really stands out. They’re respectable defensively and mediocre-to-worse everywhere else.
Memphis (300-1)
The Grizzlies have the profile of a dangerous 8-seed. They rank sixth in offensive, ninth in defense and second in rebounding. They play at a rapid-fire pace, with Ja Morant and Desmond Bane shooting threes and driving tempo from the backcourt. They have a quality big man in Jaren Jackson Jr.
Memphis does turn the ball over though. Morant is also not a particularly good three-point shooter, at just 31 percent. The Grizzlie defense relies on 7’4” Zach Edey as their rim protector and Edey is a rookie. We’ll see how he fares in the cauldron of the playoffs.
Detroit (400-1)
A nice surprise team this year, Detroit plays defense, rebounds, and saw Cade Cunningham emerge as a signature star. The 6’6” point guard averaged a 26/7/9 line this year and there is some good balance around him.
Where the Pistons struggle is a complete lack of postseason experience. They also don’t shoot or defend the three-ball particularly well and can be prone to turning it over.
Miami (750-1)
When the Heat traded Butler to Golden State in February, it made their rebuilding project official. They played their way in, but off a 37-45 regular season. This is shell of the franchise that made three conference finals and two NBA Finals appearances in the four-year stretch of 2020-23. They don’t rebound well, and there is a lack of offensive punch.
Miami does have two key holdovers from that era of success. Tyler Herro is in the backcourt and averages a 24/5/6 line. Bam Adebayo holds down the fort up front and posted an 18/9/4 line this year. These are proud players who have won in the postseason, and Andrew Wiggins (19 ppg), acquired in the trade flurry, gives them some added punch.
Orlando (800-1)
The Magic’s .500 season and need to play in to the 7-seed were disappointing, given their youth and the fact they got a 5-seed last year. But injuries were the reason. Moe Wagner is out for the year. So is Jalen Suggs. Pablo Banchero missed a lot of time. But Banchero, the core star is back. He and Franz Wagner combine to average 50 points a night and give Orlando a legit 1-2 punch. The Magic are a terrific defensive team, ranking second in efficiency.
A poor ranking of 27th for offensive efficiency is a huge concern. As is the fact the Panchero and Franz Wagner both insist on shooting a lot of threes, even though their percentage doesn’t justify it. Ball movement and turnovers are another source of concern.
We still have two more spots to fill with play-in games on Friday night (Miami-Atlanta and Dallas-Memphis). We’ll add the winners of those games to this list on Saturday morning, and previews of the first-round matchups will also be coming then.