NBA Notebook: Finals Preview

Indiana vs. Oklahoma City
Betting Odds: OKC (-800)

Schedule: All games on ABC
Thur, June 5 (8:30 PM ET, Oklahoma City)
Sun, June 8 (8 PM ET, Oklahoma City)
Wed, June 11 (8:30 PM ET, Indiana)
Fri, June 13 (8:30 PM ET, Indiana)
Mon, June 16 (8:30 PM ET, Oklahoma City)
Thur, June 19 (8:30 PM ET, Indiana)
Sun, June 22 (8 PM ET, Oklahoma City)

Much like the Stanley Cup Finals, the battle for the NBA championship puts a hot offense and a hot defense on display. Indiana has the second-best offensive efficiency of any team in the playoffs. Oklahoma City leads all playoff teams in defensive efficiency. Something has to give.

The Pacers are scoring in what today passes for the old-fashioned way. They take a comparatively smaller number of three-point shots (over 33 a game, but that’s still 11th-most among the 16 playoff teams). But they hit the treys they take, with their 40 percent shooting behind the arc the best in the postseason. Indiana also moves the basketball well, leading playoff teams in assists.

OKC will counter this with an aggressive defense. They’ve forced the most turnovers of anyone in the playoffs. Moreover, they can comfortably extend their defense at the perimeter, knowing that Chet Holmgren is basically playing goalie as a shot blocker. The ability of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA), Luguentz Dort and Alex Caruso, the backcourt defenders, to make life uncomfortable for Tyrese Haliburton, the brilliant Indiana point guard, will go a long way in deciding the winner of this series.

The Thunder are no slouch offensively themselves. SGA, the newly-minted MVP, is pouring in 30ppg, while Jalen Williams is averaging 20 a night. Oklahoma City also moves the ball well, ranking third in assists, and they have been the best in the playoffs at taking care of the basketball and avoiding turnovers. You have to beat the Thunder, because they don’t beat themselves.

Here’s where something starts to give. Indiana has defensive problems, ranking just ninth in playoff efficiency on this end of the floor. The Pacers also aren’t as deep as the Thunder, with no one on the bench averaging 20 minutes per game. By contrast, OKC has seven players getting at least that much time. While Indiana has gotten some valuable contributions from Benedict Mathurin off the bench, depth is a Thunder advantage.

Depth and defense is a tough combo to overcome, especially at the time of year, which explains why Oklahoma City is such a prohibitive favorite. But the Pacers are not without cards to play.

In addition to the sublime brilliance of Haliburton, which offers the potential to cancel out SGA, Indiana has quality big men. Pascal Siakam is averaging 21ppg in the postseason and scored 30-plus three different times in the Eastern Conference Finals. Myles Turner scores 15 a night. It’s Turner who holds the key for Indiana—while Haliburton and Siakam are reasonably consistent, Turner is very much a hit-or-miss player. If he disappears, Holmgren and fellow Thunder big man Isaiah Hartenstein can have their way down low.

But if Turner is ready to go, both scoring and rebounding, Indiana can match up in the frontcourt, let Haliburton go to work against SGA, and we’ve got a series on our hands.

Furthermore, while the NBA is a favorite’s league, especially in the playoffs, the Pacers have a coach who has bucked the trend. Rick Carlisle was on the sidelines in Dallas when the Mavericks stunned the world by upsetting LeBron, Dwayne Wade and the Miami Heat in the 2011 Finals. Carlisle’s teams consistently overachieve, including in the playoffs.

All that said, I still think the Thunder will win. The fundamental dynamics are too much in their favor, and they’ve shown some championship mettle with the way they’ve won big road games in Denver and Minnesota already. I think OKC’s time has come. But I also think this series is closer than the experts think.

Prediction: Oklahoma City in 7