MLB Notebook: Toronto Blue Jays Preview

Over the last four seasons, the Toronto Blue Jays have made the playoffs twice, but have failed to win even a single game, much less a series. Last year, the disappointment started early and a team with high expectations went 74-88. John Schneider gets another chance in the dugout as the Jays try and pick up the pieces.

Here’s our overview of Toronto Blue Jays:

POWER

Everything with this offense revolves around Vladdy Guerrero Jr. The first baseman has played at a consistently high level, routinely slugging in the high .400s and staying in the 100-RBI neighborhood. It is worth nothing that the last time Vladdy went beyond “a high level” and played MVP-caliber baseball was 2021, when he hit 48 homers. No one is going to have a season like that every year, but the first baseman is capable of the kind of monster campaign this franchise needs.

Toronto also invested in power during the offseason, bringing in Anthony Santander to DH. Playing with Baltimore, Santander hit a career-high 44 homers last year. Even if that performance doesn’t repeat itself, he still hits anywhere from 25-35 bombs consistently.

George Springer isn’t the player he once was, but the veteran rightfielder has still been good for 20-plus homers. Daulton Varsho plays center and is also a 20-homer man. The problem with Varsho is that his on-base percentages are extremely low and he’s roughly a .225 hitter over the past few years. If he’s not hitting it out of the park, he’s probably not doing anything.

GETTING ON BASE

Vladdy is also Toronto’s best player in this area, with a .361 on-base percentage over the last three seasons. Bo Bichette, in addition to some modest power, has batted .284 over that same period. Injuries limited Bichette to 81 games last year. Getting a full year out of a shortstop who was one of the American League’s best would be a fast and easy way for Toronto to improve.

The Blue Jays added Andres Gimenez, formerly of Cleveland, to play second base. Gimenez hits in the .260-.270 range and he steals bases. Alejandro Kirk is behind the plate and can be penciled in for an OBP in the .340 range.

STARTING PITCHING

This is a steady group. Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios are all reliable at giving 30-plus starts each year and they each typically keep their ERAs in the 3s. Toronto got some veteran help in Max Scherzer. Even in the twilight of his career, Max has averaged 20 starts and a 3.77 ERA over a three-year cycle. He might also be a good veteran presence for a team with a history of underachieving. The fifth starter is Bowden Francis, who has pitched well in a mix of bullpen and spot-starting. Now, he gets his chance to show he belongs in the rotation full-time.

BULLPEN

Jeff Hoffman is another new acquisition and this could be significant. Hoffman has been very good doing setup work in Philadelphia and now gets a chance to be the Blue Jay closer. And just like with the rotation, there’s steadiness here in the relief corps, with no fewer than four other arms who consistently keep their ERAs in the 3s. That said, to be really good, a bullpen generally needs 1-2 guys to have lights-out seasons. Whether Toronto can get that remains to be seen.

OUTLOOK

I think the Blue Jays look pretty good, but this is also a team that I’ve rated highly in recent years. Even their playoff teams were somewhat disappointing based on what I expected, to say nothing of last year’s disaster. As we build towards Opening Day on March 27, I’m still not sure if I’ll pick them highly again, or if I’ll make them prove it to me. Betting markets are opting for the latter—the Over/Under on wins is only 78.5.