MLB Notebook: Tampa Bay Rays Preview

Last season, Tampa Bay saw their string of six straight winning seasons and five straight playoff appearances snapped, as they slipped a hair under. 500 at 80-82. One of the game’s overachieving franchises, with Kevin Cash entering his 11th year in the dugout, aims for revival.

Here’s our spring assessment of the 2025 Tampa Bay Rays:

HITTING FOR POWER

Christopher Morel in left field and Brandon Lowe at second base are both 20-homer guys. Yandy Diaz has averaged 15 homers per year over an up-and-down three-year cycle for the first baseman. Danny Jansen is behind the plate and has shown modest power over his career, but he’s also sharply declined since slugging .516 in Toronto back in 2022. Joshua Lowe in rightfield also needs a comeback—after 20 homers and a .500 slugging percentage in 2023, Lowe suffered a power outage last year.

GETTING ON BASE

Diaz is very consistent at getting aboard with OBPs usually in the .380 range. The Rays are hoping for good health from shortstop Hae-Song Kim. He’s out until at least May right now, but finished with a .335 OBP and 24 stolen bases in San Diego a year ago.

What Tampa Bay’s offense is ultimately depending on is three young players—third baseman Junior Caminero, centerfielder Jonny DeLuca and DH Jonathan Aranda, to distinguish themselves. Based on extremely limited playing time, all we’ve seen is that DeLuca is a base-stealing threat.

STARTING PITCHING

Shane McClanahan is back. He was pitching at a Cy Young level before injuries forced him to miss much of 2023 and all of 2024. Shane Baz is another starter on the comeback trail. Baz missed ’23, and got 14 starts last year, finishing with a 3.06 ERA. If McClanahan and Baz are back to form, they can combine with Ryan Pepiot and Zack Littell to give the Rays a solid rotation. Both finished with ERAs in the 3.60s in their first chance at being a regular starter.

BULLPEN

This is a really good unit. Pete Fairbanks and Edwin Uceta can both be dominant, as can Manuel Rodriguez and Kevin Kelly. Garrett Cleavinger is another consistent arm. Don’t fall behind Tampa after five innings.

OUTLOOK

Will the Rays finish .500? That’s essentially the question betting markets are asking by posting an Over/Under win prop of 80.5. When you look at the holes this team has offensively, it’s hard to get too excited. But they’ve got the pitching, and this is an organization that is known for overperforming. When I do final predictions next week, my inclination is to have Tampa squeaking back to the right side of .500.