MLB Notebook: St. Louis Cardinals Preview

One of the game’s proud franchises, renowned for their consistency, has been mucking along the last couple of seasons. In 2023, a collapse to 71 wins ended a string of four straight playoff appearances. While St. Louis got better last year, their 83 wins still felt like a disappointment. Is 2025 going to be different? Let’s dive in.

Here’s our spring training review of the St. Louis Cardinals:

POWER

The great power tandem of Paul Goldschmidt at first base and Nolan Arenado at third base fell hard last season. Goldschmidt is now a Yankee, and Arenado looks to show his comparatively meager 16 home runs last season aren’t a sign of the end.

Wilson Contreras will now play first base. Switching from catcher will hopefully help him stay healthy, after playing just 84 games last year. He’s a 20-homer guy when he plays a full season and who knows if that might not increase without the burden of playing behind the plate. Shortstop Masyn Winn popped 15 homers in his first regular duty last season. Nolan Gorman hit 20 and will likely DH. Beyond that, the Cards are hoping for a corner outfielder like Jordan Walker or Lars Nootbaar to become a consistent power threat.

GETTING ON BASE

Contreras has consistently put up on-base percentages around or above .360. Ivan Herrera, the man now handling catching duties, batted .301 in 72 games last year. Nootbaar can be reasonably expected to deliver a .350 OBP, as can second baseman Brendan Donovan. Arenado still bats in the .260-.270 range with OBPs up over .330.

It doesn’t sound like a lot, but this is a phase of the game where very few teams are really good. St. Louis has more than most when it comes to populating the base paths.

STARTING PITCHING

Erick Fedde was a nice offseason pickup. After missing all of 2023, he posted a 3.30 ERA in 31 starts for the all-time train wreck that was the 2024 Chicago White Sox. Fedde, along with Sonny Gray, give the Cards a pretty good 1-2 punch.

Whether there’s any depth depends in large part on whether Miles Mikolas’ 5.35 ERA last year was an aberration or a sign of permanent decline. Steven Matz has never blossomed into the kind of starting pitcher that he seemed capable of back in his heady days with the New York Mets in the World Series in 2015. Andre Pallante is a young arm that has some promise—20 starts and a 3.79 ERA last year.

BULLPEN

Ryan Helsley was a top closer last year, with 49 saves and a 2.04 ERA. John King emerged as solid reliever in setup. Ryan Fernandez and JoJo Romero are respectable. It’s a pretty decent group.

OUTLOOK

Betting markets are really pessimistic on the Cards, with an Over/Under of 75.5 wins. I’m not sure why. Yes, they have flaws, and I’m not sure if I’ll pick them to reach the playoffs, but on what basis are we expecting them to decline? I think they’ll go over .500, but stay in the 80s for wins.