MLB Notebook: San Francisco Giants Preview

The San Francisco Giants have been mired squarely in mediocrity since their epic 107-win season in 2021. They’ve averaged 80 wins over the last three years. Is 2024 the year they break out? Or collapse? Or more of the same?

Here’s our early look at the Giants:

HITTING FOR POWER

Matt Chapman is as steady as they come as far as hitting 20-25 home runs from the third base position. San Francisco got more muscle for the left side of the infield, bringing in Willy Adames from Milwaukee. The shortstop has averaged 29 homers over the last three years, and flirts with 100 RBIs. Mike Yastrzemski is in rightfield, and while he might not live up to the name of his famous grandfather, and has his share of flaws offensively, he does pop 15-20 dingers a year.

The real source of excitement in San Francisco was the emergence of a couple of players who did well last year and have an upside. Heliot Ramos got his first regular playing time, and the outfielder hit 22 homers and slugged .470. Tyler Fitzgerald is at second base, and he hit 15 home runs with a slugging percentage of .486.

All in all, the Giants have some pretty decent muscle.

GETTING ON BASE

Ramos batted .270 a year ago and Fitzgerald hit .286. They both need to continue that while also improving plate discipline. Chapman has no problem with plate discipline—his OBP is routinely about 100 high points higher than his batting average. But Chapman only bats in the .240 range. Adames has the same weakness.

LaMonte Wade plays first base and has been the team’s best at getting on base. He might not have the power you normally would get from this spot, but his OBP over a three-year cycle is .360.

STARTING PITCHING

Logan Webb is as good as it gets. You just pencil him in for 33 starts, an ERA in the low 3s and to at least get casual attention in the Cy Young race. After that, there’s question marks.

Justin Verlander is listed as the #2 starter, but his ERA ballooned to 5.48 in 17 starts for Houston last year. Thinking the future Hall of Famer has finally run his course seems like a reasonable conclusion. Robbie Ray has struggled with injuries since winning the Cy Young with Toronto in 2021. Ray has made only eight starts the last two seasons.

Jordan Hicks has some possibilities. He got his first chance at regular rotation work last year and posted a 4.10 ERA in 20 starts. Hayden Birdsong made 16 starts in his rookie year, finishing with an ERA of 4.75.

BULLPEN

Camilio Doval had been a consistent closer but saw his ERA jump to 4.88 last year and is now listed on the current depth chart as a setup man. Ryan Walker has the closer gig after consistently putting together mid-2 ERAs in general relief work. Erik Miller pitched well in his rookie year, and Tyler Rogers is solid. Sean Hjelle and Randy Rodriguez are young arms with possibilities.

OUTLOOK

As I’ve noted in all of these spring training previews, I’m reserving final judgement until next week when they’re all done. Nowhere is that truer than with the Giants. I have no idea what to think about this team other than they aren’t the Dodgers, but they also aren’t the Rockies. Betting markets are similarly cautious, with an Over/Under win total of 79.5 putting them right where they’ve been for the last three years.