MLB Notebook: San Diego Padres Preview

Mike Shildt was a successful manager over four years in St. Louis (2018-21), until, for some reason, the Cardinals decided he wasn’t good enough. St. Louis’ loss proved to be San Diego’s gain. Shildt took over the Padres and a team that had become known for underachieving, got it together, won 93 games and reached the Divisional Round of the playoffs.

Here’s a concise overview of San Diego as we get set to begin 2025:

HITTING FOR POWER

Manny Machado is the juice, and a consistent 30-HR guy at third base. Jackson Merrill exploded onto the scene in centerfield last year, hitting 24 homers and slugging .500 in his rookie campaign.

Machado and Merrill lead the way, and there’s steady power beneath them. While Xander Bogaerts had a poor year offensively in 2024, the shortstop will generally be good for 15-20 homers. Jake Cronenworth is the same at second base, giving the Padres some muscle up the middle. A big X-factor is Fernando Tatis Jr. If he’s on the field, he’s a power threat. But the first part of that equation is a perpetual question mark.

GETTING ON BASE

Luis Arraez is the best pure contact hitter in baseball, a throwback to an era when players put the ball in play and hit for high averages. Arraez hits in the .320 to .330 range at first base.

Merrill batted .292 last year. More experience could help him develop patience at the plate and do something about that .326 OBP. Machado and Bogaerts are usually in the .340 range for OBP.

STARTING PITCHING

The loss of Joe Musgrove for the year is a big blow, but the Padres still have starting pitching. Michael King was a boon last year, getting his first chance as a regular starter and posting a 2.95 ERA in 30 stars. Dylan Cease is another solid and consistent arm.

Yu Darvish needs to get healthy. He’s supposed to be back at the end of April, but elbow injuries at age 38 aren’t anything to be casual about. If Darvish pitches well, San Diego has a good 1-2-3. Nick Pivetta is a #4 starter—nothing more, nothing less. He’ll take his turn and put up an ERA in the 4s. And moving from Fenway to Petco might be good for Pivetta’s ERA.

Randy Vasquez finished with a 4.24 ERA in his 12 starts a year ago. His ability to build on that (or not) will tell us if the rotation can go from pretty good to outstanding.

BULLPEN

Robert Suarez got his first chance at regular closing duty last year and was a success. Shildt has other good arms behind him. Jason Adam, Jeremiah Estrada, Wandy Peralta and Adrian Morejon are all solid relievers. Yuki Matsui was respectable, at 3.73 in 63 innings as a rookie. Shildt has no shortage of quality relievers to close games with.

OUTLOOK

San Diego is good. Being in a division with Los Angeles is a perpetual problem and Arizona is on the rise. So, where the Padres fit in the overall National League scheme of things is a question. But looking at them in a vacuum, they are good and are worthy of an Over pick on their Over/Under win total of 85.5.