MLB Notebook: Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been grinding their way back to respectability under manager Derek Shelton. Starting from a complete rebuild mode when he took over in 2020, Shelton has gotten this long-struggling franchise to 76 wins each of the last two years. Can they take the next step and win more than they lose for the first time since 2018? Or snag their first postseason berth since 2015?

Here’s our preview of the Pittsburgh Pirates:

HITTING FOR POWER

Bryan Reynolds continues to be a solid, all-around outfielder—so steady in fact, that I keep waiting for him to get traded each July. But he’s still in Pittsburgh and if form holds, he’ll be good for 25 or so homers and a .450 slugging percentage. Oneil Cruz flashed some power last year in centerfield, hitting 21 homers and the young centerfielder looks to show that was the real thing. And on the other end of the career spectrum, Andrew McCutcheon is DHing and still popping 20 or so out of the park each year.

Otherwise, there’s not a lot else. Pittsburgh has serious problems in the punch department.

GETTING ON BASE

Pittsburgh needs Reynolds to continue his pattern of OBPs of .340 or higher. They also need Cruz on base more—he stole 22 bases. Spencer Horwitz was brought in from Toronto to play first base, and he posted a .357 OBP in part-time duty a year ago.

Otherwise, again, there’s not a lot. The Pirates simply have a lot of holes offensively.

STARTING PITCHING

This is where the news gets good for Pittsburgh fans. Paul Skenes, fresh off winning a national championship at LSU in 2023, came to the Steel City and became a must-see phenom. He went 11-3 with a 1.96 ERA in his 23 starts. Skenes is an early Cy Young candidate and the kind of ace every team craves.

Mitch Keller has the kind of steadiness that teams crave. Over the past several years, Keller makes his 30-plus starts, keeps his ERA in the low 4s, and occasionally pitches at an All-Star level. While he was miscast as the #1 starter, the arrival of Skenes, allows Keller to take a more natural place in the middle of the rotation.

 Jared Jones was another rookie last season and finished with a 4.14 ERA. Andrew Heaney is a good young arm, and fifth starter Bailey Falter isn’t without promise.

BULLPEN

All eyes are on David Bednar. After a few years of quietly being one of the National League’s best closers, Bednar had a horrible year in 2024. The Pirates are staying with him, but I can’t imagine the leash will be very long. The rest of the pen is in the “good enough” category, with the best middle/set-up relievers being Colin Holderman and Caleb Ferguson. If Bednar is lights-out again, that will be more than enough. Otherwise, Shelton will have to deal with an unstable pen.

OUTLOOK

No team with this kind of starting pitching is without hope, but there are a lot of offensive problems. That’s surely why betting markets are seeing more of the same—a 75.5 Over/Under win total. While my own picks aren’t final, I’ll probably take the Buccos to go Over…but not by much