MLB Notebook: Philadelphia Phillies Preview

In 2024, the Philadelphia Phillies produced their fourth straight winning season, third straight playoff appearance, and captured a good NL East with 95 wins. But they did their best work over the first four months of the season. A pedestrian 30-24 showing over August and September set the stage for an uninspired playoff loss to the rival New York Mets in the Division Series. The Phils look to reset as we begin another season, with their home city still basking in the Super Bowl glow.

Here’s how I see the Phils heading into 2025:

POWER

Philadelphia has no problems here. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper lead the way as home run threats. Nick Castellanos and Trea Turner are each 20-homer guys, and third baseman Alec Bohm is consistently in the 15-20 range. New leftfielder Max Kepler, over from Minnesota, is generally in that range.

Potential concerns are a slippage in power last year from catcher J.T. Realmuto, and a major fall-off from centerfielder Brandon Marsh. Both are players to keep an eye on. Realmuto will turn 34 next week and his best days as a hitter are likely behind him. But Marsh is only 26, and it’s reasonable to hope for a comeback year.

GETTING ON BASE

Schwarber is the king of drawing walks, routinely turning batting averages of roughly .200 into on-base percentages of .350 or higher. It’s why manager Rob Thomson makes the somewhat curious decision to bat the big power hitter leadoff. That’s in spite of having Turner, who fits a more traditional leadoff profile. While Turner’s .333 OBP over the last three years is lower than Schwarber’s, Trea does consistently bat in the .280s and he’s good for 20-plus steals.

Marsh’s resurgence (or not) will also tell us whether or not the Phils can set the table. In 2023, his OBP was a sparkling .372. It would be nice to see him get back to that level and perhaps persuade Thomson to bat Marsh and Turner 1-2 (or vice-versa) and let more of Schwarber’s home runs be for crooked numbers.

STARTING PITCHING

This is a good rotation. Zack Wheeler has become one of the most reliable horses in the National League and generally at least lurks in the Cy Young conversation. Aaron Nola can be up and down, but he’s good for his 30-plus starts and the ERA is usually in the high 3s—not bad for having to pitch in a hitter-friendly park. Ranger Suarez stepped up last year and become another consistent starter, as did Cristopher Sanchez. Jesus Lazardo made 21 starts for Miami last year, posted a 3.75 ERA and is now in a Phillies’ uniform. This rotation is everything a manager could want. They chew up innings (at least by modern standards), there’s no weak point and there are multiple arms that can be a legitimate ace.

BULLPEN

Philadelphia brought in Jordan Romano from Toronto to handle closing duties. Romano, along with Matt Strahm, should keep the eighth and ninth inning comfortable for Phillie fans. Orion Kierkering had an excellent rookie year, and Jose Alvarado is another good arm. No bullpen is without question marks, especially in March. But the Philly pen has a lot fewer questions than most.

OUTLOOK

I’m somewhat surprised that betting markets only have the Phils win total set at 90.5. I don’t see any weaknesses here. The NL East is tough at the top, with Atlanta and the New York Mets, and I’m still weighing where I’ll pick the Phils in that regard. But there’s also a lot of wins to be had against Miami, and possibly Washington. I don’t have any problem saying now that Philadelphia will win at least 91 games and go Over.