MLB Notebook: NL East Memorial Day Report

Sports Scribe Blog

The best teams in the NL East are setting a high bar. Our holiday weekend check-in continues with a look at the Phillies, Mets, Braves, Nationals, and Marlins.

Philadelphia (34-19)
Preseason Over/Under: 90.5
Current Pace: 104
Just like last season, the Phillies have come blazing out of the gate and set the pace. The starting pitching has been terrific up and down, highlighted by Zach Wheeler (11 starts, 2.49 ERA) and Jesus Lazardo (11 starts, 2.15 ERA). The starting lineup’s Big Three—Trea Turner setting the table, Bryce Harper cleaning up and Kyle Schwarber doing a little of both, are all off to strong starts, while still playing at a sustainable rate. Philadelphia is well-balanced and well-situated for a fourth straight playoff appearance.

Last season’s hot start led to some doldrums down the stretch and a disappointing early exit from the postseason. To avoid that fate this year, the Phils will need to tighten up a bullpen that currently ranks 10^th in the National League. Matt Strahm and Jose Alvarado are respectable on the back end, but neither has been dominant, and there are problems otherwise. Given that the starting pitching will have a hard time continuing this early pace, the relievers will need to step up. The everyday lineup could actually be even better, with Alec Bohm, J.T. Realmuto and Max Kepler all scuffling at the plate.

NY Mets (32-21)
Preseason Over/Under: 90.5
Current Pace: 98
The National League’s best pitching staff has the Mets humming. Everyone notable in both the rotation and the bullpen is pitching well. The highlights are Kodai Senga emerging as an early Cy Young frontrunner with a 1.46 ERA and Reed Garrett’s dominance in setup with a 0.82 ERA. While a lot of these individual performances will come back to earth, New York can look forward to getting Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas back from the injured list. Offesnively, Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso are having good all-around years at the plate.

Scoring runs is still an issue though, and Juan Soto will need to get rolling. While the big free-agent acquisition has a .363 on-base percentage, taking walks is about all he’s done in the early going. Brandon Nimmo and Mark Vientos also have to start hitting. Even here though this is a positive—if you’re biggest problem this early in the year is Juan Soto, things are probably going to work themselves out.

Atlanta (25-27)
Preseason Over/Under: 93.5
Current Pace: 78
The Braves aren’t scoring runs, and the biggest reasons are that Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies aren’t doing anything. The pitching is manageable, but no one is pitching like a true ace, the way Chris Sale did a year ago winning the Cy Young Award. While Matt Olson is hitting home runs, he’s not getting on base consistently. Other than Marcell Ozuna, with his .423 on-base percentage/.473 slugging percentage stat line and solidifying his reputation as one of the game’s elite DHs, no one is really producing.

That said, most of Atlanta’s underperformance came in April. And while the patient has not yet recovered, it is fair to say that May was spent stopping the bleeding. Riley and Albies are going to hit—at least better than they have to date. While closer Raisel Iglesias has struggled, the rest of the bullpen seems to be coming together. Oh, and Ronald Acuna Jr. just came back from the injury that sidelined him a year ago. Atlanta is definitely getting back in the playoff race, with the only question being if they dug themselves too deep a hole to win the division.

Washington (24-29)
Preseason Over/Under: 70.5
Current Pace: 73
The Nationals are getting nice years from James Woods in left field (.378/.542 stat line, and 13 homers) and CJ Abrams at short (.352/.531). Jeter Irving and MacKenzie Gore have been respectable in the rotation. Honestly, that’s about all there is to say about the Nats. They’re playing more or less as expected and there are no major surprises, good or bad.

Miami (21-30)
Preseason Over/Under: 63.5
Current Pace: 67
The bright spots in Miami are the play of rightfielder Kyle Stowers (.379/.543, 10 homers), along with getting nice offensive production from two catchers, Agustin Ramirez and Liam Hicks. The biggest disappointment is the disaster that Cal Quantrill and Sandy Alcantara have been in the rotation, with ERAs of 6.09 and 8.04 respectively.

It’s the Quantrill and Alcantara factors that make the Marlins a little more intriguing than the Nationals when we look at the bottom of this division. Miami is not necessarily better, but if these two starters could find their form, the Marlins could make a real run at .500. I wouldn’t predict it, but it’s an interesting X-factor.

CONCLUSION
The division has a clear caste, with Philadelphia, New York, and Atlanta at the top, but watching how that caste shakes out will be intriguing. The immediate focal point is watching to see if the Braves can heat up and make it a three-team race by the time we get to August.