MLB Notebook: NL Central Memorial Day Report

Our Memorial Day reports continue with a look at how each NL Central team is performing against expectations and why:

Chi Cubs (31-20)
Preseason Over/Under: 87.5
Current Pace: 98
The formula for the Cubs is simple—if manager Craig Counsell is writing your name on a lineup card, you’re probably hitting. Chicago has the most prolific offense in the National League and there are no weak points. Kyle Tucker has been the most complete player, with a stat line of .383 on-base percentage/.543 slugging percentage. Tucker is one of four players with double-digit homers, led by 14 for Pete Crow-Armstrong. The Cubbies also have table-setters, with Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ having good years. Anything else? How about catcher Carson Kelly turning into perhaps the best in the league at his position?

Pitching could be a problem. The Cubs are eighth in the NL in composite ERA, Justin Steele is out for the year and Shota Imanaga is dealing with a nagging hamstring. What we really need to see from Chicago is improvement from the bullpen. Getting good mileage from the relief corps was a strength of Counsell’s in Milwaukee, but it was a problem on the North Side last year. It will likely shape whether the Cubs continue to play at this kind of elite pace, or if they come back to the pack.

St. Louis (28-23)
Preseason Over/Under: 75.5
Current Pace: 89
The Cardinals are doing it with steady consistency in all facets of the game. The starting rotation is emblematic of the team as a whole. There’s no real standout, but nor is there a weak point, and they’re consistently in every game. The bullpen is steady and could be even better, with both Kyle Leahy and Steve Matz throwing lights-out. A balanced lineup is being led by Brendan Donovan (.384/.453), with Lars Nootbaar, Victor Scott II and Masyn Winn all getting on base consistently.

Where St. Loujs isn’t getting production is from the corner infield spots. Wilson Contreras isn’t producing power and Nolan Arenado isn’t producing anything. The upside to that is that they’ve gotten into contention without notable contributions from either one.

Cincinnati (25-27)
Preseason Over/Under: 79.5
Current Pace: 78
Good pitching is keeping the Reds afloat for now. Andrew Abbott is pitching great (1.80 ERA), Hunter Greene has been solid (2.88) and the two Nicks—Martinez and Lodolo have ERAs in the 3s. What’s scary is that Cincinnati’s rotation could get even better if Brady Singer can find his form. The relievers are third in the National League in bullpen ERA.

Now the bats have to get going. While seventh in the NL in runs scored isn’t bad, it’s not good enough in a park as conducive to scoring as Great American Ballpark. Elly De La Cruz has been mediocre, and Matt McClain and Spencer Steer have been awful. That needs to change if the Reds are going to get in the playoffs.

Milwaukee (25-27)
Preseason Over/Under: 82.5
Current Pace: 78
The Brewers have been through a lot. The starting rotation has been decimated by injuries to Brandon Woodruff, Nestor Cortes and Jose Quintana. A bullpen that’s always been so reliable is just 12^th in the National League. And an offense that’s generally had its issues is still limping around. Christian Yelich looks washed up. Jackson Chourio hasn’t gotten going.

But there’s bright spots. Woodruff and Quintana are rehabbing. Rhys Hoskins, with a .401/.490 stat line has been a boon at first base. Freddy Peralta and Chad Patrick have stabilized the rotation until the reinforcements arrive. Wilson Contreras is at least getting on base, even if the power hasn’t shown up yet. With Abner Uribe and Nick Mears pitching well out of the pen, manager Pat Murphy may have the building blocks to get the bullpen revived. And amidst the early challenges, they aren’t sunk yet.

Pittsburgh (18-34)
Preseason Over/Under: 75.5
Current Pace: 56
A disastrous season has gotten Derek Shelton fired and an offense that is completely inept is the prime reason. The Pirates score the fewest runs in the National League. The biggest disappointment is the struggles of Brian Reynolds. Less surprising, but still disappointing, is the utter non-production of Ke’Bryan Hayes, Adam Frazier, and Tommy Pham. Pittsburgh can’t score and there’s not a lot of reason to expect change.

The poor offense is wasting a good effort from the starting rotation. Even with Jared Jones gone with Tommy John surgery, Paul Skenes has built off his success as a rookie, Andrew Heaney has been solid, and Mitch Keller has been good enough. But with run support and a mediocre bullpen, that starting pitching is nowhere near enough.

CONCLUSION
I picked the Cubs to win the division at the start of the year and they’re playing the best, so there’s obviously no reason to change course. But the Cardinals look like they’re going to hang around, and there’s good reasons to not write off the Reds and Brewers just yet. One of MLB’s most balanced divisions still looks just that.