MLB Notebook: New York Mets Preview

Carlos Mendoza had a good first year in Queens as the Mets manager. He won 89 games, got into the postseason on the final day, and New York then made some noise in October. They won a thriller of a Wild-Card Round with Milwaukee, handled favored Philadelphia with ease in the Division Series and then took the eventual champion L.A. Dodgers to six games in the NLCS. Now, the Mets are back for more, looking for their first pennant since 2015 and first World Series title since 1986.

Here’s our spring training overview of the New York Mets:

POWER

Pete Alonso was an October hero last year, and the big first baseman consistently averages in the neighborhood of 40 home runs a year. On the other side of the infield, third baseman Mark Vientos broke out last season, slugging .516 and hitting 27 homers in his first crack at regular duty. Vientos also came up big in the early playoff rounds. Francisco Lindor was the game’s best shortstop a year ago, in part because he hits home runs.

New York also has players who might improve on last season. Brandon Nimmo had the worst offensive year of his career in ’24. Normally, he’s a 20-homer guy. Catcher Francisco Alvarez hit 25 homers as a rookie in 2023, before struggling last year. This year will tell us more about which performance was real.

The mix of steady power hitters and players who might improve is impressive enough, but we haven’t even gotten to the crown jewel. The Mets went across town and raided the Yankees for rightfielder Juan Soto. One of the game’s best all-around offensive players, Soto is good for 30-plus home runs and a slugging percentage north of .500. It’s also worth pointing out that he’s a clutch playoff performer.

GETTING ON BASE

Soto can also be relied on for an on-base percentage of in the .400 neighborhood. Alonso, while generally being a .240ish hitter, is the prototype modern slugger who takes his walks and boosts the OBP somewhere around .330 or higher. If Nimmo returns to productivity, he often went .350 or higher with his OBPs. Designated hitter Jesse Winker, in from Cincinnati, is in the same range.

Second baseman Jeff McNeil is a big X-factor in the lineup overall and this category is the biggest reason. McNeil had a career year in 2022, but has declined the last two seasons. If he can bat at or near the top of the lineup and post an OBP of .340 or higher, the Met muscle will be sitting pretty.

STARTING PITCHING

The success of the rotation likely comes down to the health of Kodai Senga. In 2023, Senga made 29 starts and finished with a 2.98 ERA. He missed almost all of last season. New York needs some stability and a healthy Senga is the surest way to get it.

That’s because the rest of the rotation is a mix of promise and unpredictability. Sean Manaea is generally pretty steady, albeit with an ERA in the 4.25 range. He’s out until mid-April and we’ll see if that’s just a blip on the radar. The same goes for Frankie Montas, whose out until at least mid-May. David Peterson pitched well in 20 starts last year and could provide a big boost.

Clay Holmes is an interesting story. Over a nice career as a setup reliever, Holmes has never been a regular starter and has not even started a single game since he was with Pittsburgh in 2018. But he’s penciled in as part of the Met rotation. It’s late in a career to make this kind of move. If it works, it’s an unexpected gold mine for New York.

BULLPEN

There’s question marks here. Edwin Diaz is still the closer, but he’s been inconsistent over the last couple of years. A.J. Minter has been a steady veteran reliever, but he’s dealing with hip problems. Dedniel Nunez had a solid rookie year, but he’s trying to come back from an elbow injury. Veteran Ryne Stanek has been in decline since his best days with the Astros in the early years of this decade. None of the starters can be considered workhorses (if such a thing even exists anywhere), so this level of bullpen uncertainty is an issue.

OUTLOOK

The postseason run, combined with the Soto signing has people bullish on the Mets. Their Over/Under on wins is set at 90.5. That’s reasonable. I’m not sure yet where I land on this team. If you get me thinking about the lineup, I’ll think World Series. If I spend too much time thinking about the pitching, a .500 season can easily spring to mind. Like all else, that decision gets made closer to Opening Day. But this division is not an easy one, as I look over notes for the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves that will get posted tomorrow. The Mets, as always, are combustible—a mix of optimism and uncertainty.