MLB Notebook: The National League Landscape

There’s two months to go and the teams have made their deadline moves. We’ve already checked how the American League looks heading into the stretch drive. The National League landscape is much cleaner, with two-team races in each division.

NL EAST: NORTHEAST CORRIDOR CLASH

The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets have been in a dogfight for the top spot for most of the season and are still within a half-game of each other. The Phils are a (-140) favorite in the betting markets to prevail, with both teams in strong position for the playoffs.

The Top-Heavy Phils

Philadelphia’s offense is led by the trio of Trea Turner, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber at the top of the order. Turner is the table-setter, with a .342 on-base percentage and 25 stolen bases. Harper has good all-around production with a stat line of a .370 OBP/.490 slugging percentage. And Schwarber has 37 homers and 87 RBIs. But the rest of the lineup is a problem with Alec Bohm, Max Kepler, Brandon Marsh, and Nick Castellanos all having off-years.

It’s a similar story with the pitching staff. There’s terrific front-line talent. Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez are all having strong years in the rotation, and the Phils rank fourth in the majors for starters’ ERA. But the bullpen has been a train wreck, ranking just 24th. To that end, Philly’s acquisition of Minnesota closer Jhoan Duran at the deadline could be a game-changer.

Mets Built On Arms

Good pitching has carried the Mets. David Peterson has anchored the rotation from the outset of the season. Kodai Senga got back from an early injury and has been dominant ever since, with a 2.00 ERA in his 16 starts. In the bullpen, Edwin Diaz has been a lights-out closer. New York has good pitching depth, something they strengthened with the pickup of Ryan Helsley from St. Louis for the bullpen.

What the Mets haven’t done is score runs consistently, ranking 17th in the majors. Pete Alonso is the only regular having an unequivocally good year with a .352 OBP/.498 stat line and 23 homers. Francisco Lindor has been down this year and third baseman Mark Viento has been disappointing. That said, we should note that Juan Soto’s numbers (.383/.486 stat line) aren’t bad, just below expectations. And Soto has a way of delivering when it matters most. New York also traded for Baltimore centerfielder Cedric Mullins. He can be up and down, but he has the talent to be a difference-maker down the stretch.

NL CENTRAL: THE I-94 DUEL

Chicago went to the early lead in this division and has continued to play consistent baseball. But consistency hasn’t been enough to hold off scorching-hot Milwaukee, who has nudged in front. The Cubbies remain the preferred choice of betting markets, as  a (-140) favorite to win the Central.

Balance & Speed Make Brew Crew Dangerous

The Brewers do it with exceptional team-wide balance. They rank sixth in MLB for runs scored and seventh in ERA. Nor is there one clear star. Freddy Peralta, Quinn Priester and young phenom Jacob Misiorowski lead the rotation. The lineup gets power from Jackson Chourio and Christian Yelich. They get consistent OBP from William Contreras, Brice Turang and Isaac Collins. Milwaukee has five players between 12-20 stolen bases, as they steadily apply pressure on their opponents.

A bullpen that ranks 18th in relievers’ ERA is a concern, but the combo of Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill is still as good as any at closing games out in the eighth and ninth inning. And keep an eye on Andrew Vaughn—he got a chance at first base when Rhys Hoskins went down and Vaughn has hit six home runs with a .386 OBP in the 17 games he’s played. If he keeps swinging the bat, and Hoskins comes back in September, and Contreras shows more of the power we’ve seen from him the past the Brewers can still get better.

Cubs’ Explosive Offense Tries To Cover Pitching Concerns

Chicago’s move to trade for Kyle Tucker prior to the season has predictably paid off. With a stat line of .389/.485, Tucker is the leader of one of baseball’s most prolific offenses. Carson Kelly (.367/.498 stat line) is an elite offensive catcher. Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki all hit for power, combining for 74 home runs to date. Nico Hoerner gets on base. The failure of the front office to do something about an unproductive third base spot at the trade deadline was disappointing, but the Cubs still have plenty of bats.

Pitching is more of a concern. While Matthew Boyd is a Cy Young contender and Shota Imanaga is solid, rotation depth behind them is a problem. The bullpen has made progress as the season moves along, with Daniel Palenica emerging as the closer. What’s needed is more depth. The Cubs did make some trades this past week, none of which were high profile, but all were aimed at shoring up this area.

NL WEST: A SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOOTOUT

We have a tight race here, with Los Angeles and San Diego separated by just three games and the Padres making major moves at the deadline. But the markets aren’t buying that this is a race—you can still get San Diego at 7-1 odds to win the West, making them a much bigger longshot than other second-place teams like the Yankees or Mariners, both of whom are a little further off the pace than the Padres are. Such is the respect that the defending champion Dodgers command.

Dodgers Lean On Star Power

Los Angeles still does it with a heavy dose of star power covering up a lack of depth. Shohei Ohtani looks on his way to another MVP award, with his 38 home runs leading the National League, an OBP of .376 and a slugging percentage of a dazzling .604. Meanwhile, catcher Will Smith leads the league in hitting with a .325 batting average and a .424 OBP. Smith also slugs .545 as he seeks to become the first catcher since Buster Posey in 2012 to win the batting title. In the rotation, Yoshinobu Yamamoto has made 21 starts and posted a 2.63 ERA, settling in as the staff ace.

But beneath the glitter, there are holes. While Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy are having steady years, Mookie Betts is having an awful season at the plate. Teoscar Hernandez, while hitting for power, has a terrible OBP of .289. Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Glasnow still provide some help in the rotation, but don’t log a lot of innings. And the bullpen is a mess. Dave Roberts has covered up for the lack of depth on this roster before, he’s doing it again, and with no significant action at the deadline, he’ll have to keep doing it if L.A. is going to repeat.

Padres Stack Pitching; Seek Late Surge

As befits a team that plays in one of baseball’s pitcher’s parks, San Diego has a great staff ERA, while struggling to score runs. Nick Pivetta has found career rejuvenation at Petco, with an 11-3 record and 2.73 ERA in 22 starts. Pivetta is quietly making himself a Cy Young candidate. Randy Vazquez has been steady. The rest of the rotation is a big “it depends.” Yu Darvish just came back from the IL in early July and is still trying to find his form. Michael King has been out since May, but is making his rehab starts. The Padres traded for Nestor Cortes, who was a disaster in Milwaukee, but might find Petco to be as rejuvenating as Pivetta did.

And the starters don’t have to pitch long because the bullpen is the best in baseball, with the trio of Robert Suarez, Jason Adams and Jeremiah Estrada closing games out. And that pen got even better at the deadline, with the addition of Mason Miller. As to the offense, Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. have had to carry the load, with Luis Arraez’s ability to hit for contact providing from some help. But with Jackson Merrill in a sophomore slump, there’s been nothing behind those three. Until the front office went out and got Ryan O’Hearn from Baltimore at the deadline. San Diego is serious about winning.

THE CHALLENGER

As the standings sit right now, the six teams above will all make the playoffs, with the remainder of the season being about the fight for bracket position. But there is one fly in the ointment—the Cincinnati Reds are still lurking and have a shot to snag a wild-card.

Terry Francona is working with a good rotation, led by Andrew Abbott and Hunter Greene, and strengthened by the deadline acquisition of Zack Littell from Tampa Bay. The lineup is led by the rising star that is shortstop Elly De La Cruz. The Reds need help from the supporting cast. Getting an increase in production from second baseman Matt McClain or first baseman Spencer Steer seems like the most straightforward way to do it. Tito will have to figure out a way to piece a bullpen together down the stretch. But Cincinnati’s recent form has been good and they’re still in the hunt.

WAIT TILL NEXT YEAR

St. Louis and San Francisco were both contenders much of the way, but faded as the summer heat intensified, and both teams were sellers at the deadline. With that waving of the white flag, the Cardinals and Giants joined the Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Miami Marlins as teams looking ahead to 2026. Which is in addition to the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals, who have been long gone from contention. And that’s in addition to the historically awful dumpster fire that is the Colorado Rockies.

LOOKING AHEAD

The Dodgers are a heavy favorite to win both the National League pennant (+135) and the World Series (+230). My respect for their star power, their manager, and their pedigree is sufficient that I’ll agree that they hold off the Padres to win the West, but I think the postseason is wide open. And, last year’s success aside, October has not always been kind to Los Angeles. Given what the Phils and Mets did at the deadline, I’ve got my eye on the behemoths of the East.

On Deck:  NFL previews resume next week. Scroll down the blog to catch up on our early entries.