MLB Notebook: Minnesota Twins Preview

After winning the AL Central in 2023, the Twins looked poised to return to the postseason last year. But in spite of posting the fourth winning record in six years under manager Rocco Baldelli, Minnesota’s 82-80 record left them short of the playoffs in a competitive AL Central.

Here’s our overview of the Minnesota Twins:

POWER

No one is a superstar, but there’s several players who can land between 15-25 home runs. Carlos Correa is one, although the shortstop’s health continues to be a concern. He slugged .517 last year, but only played 86 games. The Twins need a healthy Correa to contend. Byron Buxton hit 28 homers in 2022, and while he hasn’t reached that level the last couple seasons, he still has consistent pop.

Third baseman Royce Lewis has only played part-time to date, but has hit 15 home runs per year. Keeping that pace in a full-time role would be a huge boost for the Minnesota lineup. Ty France is on the other corner of the infield. While his offensive production is generally mediocre, especially for a first baseman, he does hit about 15 bombs a season.

The intrigue here comes from catcher Ryan Jeffers, who got his first chance at regular duty a year ago and hit 21 homers in 122 games. He slugged a respectable .436. If that’s for real, it’s a big boost for the Twins. The same goes for rightfielder Matt Wallner. Over the last three years, while only averaging 56 games per season, Wallner has hit 10 homers a year on average. He gets his chance to show he can pro-rate those numbers out as a regular.

GETTING ON BASE

The left side of the infield continues to be where Minnesota looks. A healthy Correa is good for an OBP in the .350-.360 range, and Lewis was a .300 hitter in 2023.

Otherwise, the Twins have problems in the table-setting area. They could use a boost in production at second base. Edouard Julien hit .263 a year ago—he also hit 16 homers, per the power discussion further up. But as of today, Julien is listed behind Brooks Lee on the depth chart, who is a completely unproven young player. Unproven doesn’t mean he isn’t good, but we need to see it.

STARTING PITCHING

There’s no ace here, but Baldelli should get consistent work from his starters. Pablo Lobez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober are all steady with ERAs in the high 3s. Simeon-Wood Richardson got his first regular chance last year and posted a 4.18 ERA in 28 starts. The question mark is going to be Chris Paddack. He’s been trying to make it back from Tommy John surgery that was undergone early in the 2022 season. Paddack made 17 starts a year ago, but the ERA was 4.99.

BULLPEN

Jhoan Duran is reasonably consistent in the closer’s role, but his ERA has been nudging upward each of the last two years. Griffin Jax was terrific in setup last season, with a 2.03 ERA. By contrast, Brock Stewart wasn’t particularly good in 2024, but he has been before. Danny Coulombe, an excellent reliever in Baltimore, could be an underrated pickup here. There are question marks, to be sure, but Baldelli has some options to play with.

OUTLOOK

Playing in a division where Cleveland, Kansas City, and Detroit were all surprises last year, Minnesota is suddenly lurking under the radar. That’s not a bad place to be right now. The Twins aren’t bad, as evidenced by betting markets putting their Over/Under for wins at 83.5. I’ll wait until I’ve reviewed their division rivals before making any final predictions, but there’s no reason to think Minnesota won’t be in the discussion come summer.