MLB Notebook: Milwaukee Brewers Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers have, quietly and without national fanfare, become the gold standard in the balanced NL Central. Four division titles in the past seven years. Two more playoff berths. Consistent winning seasons (save for the 29-31 wild-card spot in the weird year of 2020). They didn’t skip a beat when changing over managers from Craig Counsell to Pat Murphy last year. The last step is to get the franchise’s first pennant since 1982 and its first World Series title ever.

Here’s the early assessment of the Milwaukee Brewers heading into 2025:

HITTING FOR POWER

Wilson Contreras is one of the game’s elite catchers, good for 20 homers and a slugging percentage in the high .400s. Rhys Hoskins is a vintage power-hitting first baseman, who pops 25-30 dingers a year. Jackson Chourio was a breakout star in a lot of ways in his rookie season, one of them being his 21 homers. And Christian Yelich is DHing, still showing both home run power and power to the alleys—so long as he stays healthy. Even with the loss of shortstop Willy Adames, there’s plenty of muscle still on hand in Milwaukee.

GETTING ON BASE

Yelich and Contreras carry the load here, with OBPs in the .360 to .370 range. Garrett Mitchell, the young centerfielder, posted a .342 OBP in 69 games last year. His ability to make that translate into a full year will go a long way towards determining the Brewers’ offensive success. The same goes for Chourio. The leftfielder can run, stealing 22 bases last year. His OBP was .327, and if he can bump that up 15 points or so—a reasonable expectation for a second-year player–that can be a big difference-maker for the power hitters.

STARTING PITCHING

Freddy Peralta and Aaron Civale should be reasonably steady—not aces, but good for ERAs in the high 3s/low 4s, and manageable. After that, it’s an explosive mix of potential and problems.

Nestor Cortes certainly has potential—he’s coming off a 3.41 ERA in 23 starts for the Yankees last year. But Cortes also has an every-other-year tendency, especially regarding injuries. If form holds, the Brewers will get him on the wrong side of the cycle in 2025.

Tobias Myers made 25 starts last year as a rookie and finished with a 3.00 ERA. He’ll miss the early weeks with an oblique injury, but if that ’24 showing was for real, Milwaukee could have their ace. And Brandon Woodruff, who pitched exceptionally well in 2022 and for the early part of 2023 before being sidelined, has finally made it back from the injured list.

So, the Brewers could either have an exceptionally deep rotation with a couple of guys capable of Cy Young seasons. Or, they could be stuck with a couple of above-average arms masquerading as aces, with a train wreck behind them. In a balanced NL Central, this group of arms is the most important variable.

BULLPEN

Milwaukee has consistently churned out bullpens that are good and deep. The 2025 unit should be no exception. Trevor Megill is closing, Joel Payamps is in setup, Bryan Hudson is solid, and Abner Uribe could be a breakout star (to whatever extent middle relievers become stars) if he gets more work. Jared Koenig is another effective and versatile arm.

OUTLOOK

On paper, the Brewers look pretty similar to the Cardinals, Cubs and Reds in fighting it out for the division. What Milwaukee has going for them is that they generally outperform what they look like on paper. Betting markets are cautious, with an Over/Under win total of 82.5. I’m still trying to sort out the four contenders of this division, but my gut instinct says the Brewers will win at least 83.