MLB Notebook: Houston Astros Preview

The Houston Astros kept their string of AL West titles going, capturing their seventh consecutive crown in full seasons (excluding the shortened year 2020). But their 88 wins was the lowest of any of those seven AL West champs and their quick playoff loss in the wild-card round ended a string of seven straight ALCS appearances (including 2020). Are the Astros in a gradual fade or are they still a contender?

Here’s our spring training look-in on Houston:

HITTING FOR POWER

Yordan Alvarez continues to be the game’s best DH and one of its great power hitters. He hits over 30 home runs, slugs in the high .500s, drives in over 90 runs and is clutch. Yordan is the David Ortiz of this generation.

Jose Altuve will move to leftfield this year, and the little man is still hitting the ball out of the park, to the tune of 20-25 homers a year. While the loss of Kyle Tucker is a big blow, Houston made a counter-move by bringing in Christian Walker to play first base. Walker was a 30-homer man in Arizona.

Change is also afoot across the infield. Alex Bregman is gone, now in Boston, as Houston acquired Isaac Paredes at third base. Paredes was emerging as a good power hitter in Tampa, hitting 31 bombs in 2023 before falling off last year. He needs to regain his form.

Most teams don’t get power at catcher. Houston does. Yainer Diaz has hit 49 homers over these past two seasons as the regular behind the plate. And while the rightfield gig is currently slated to go to rookie Cam Smith, if he falters, Chas McCormick at least has some modest power, in the 15-per-year range.

GETTING ON BASE

Alvarez also routinely churns out on-base percentages over .400. Altuve is a .300 hitter, and he stole a career-high 22 bases last season. Walker and Paredes are both respectable at getting on base, likely to have OBPs in the .330s. Diaz, along with shortstop Jeremy Pena could stand to be more patient at the plate, but they are respectable at getting on base and Pena can steal some bases.

STARTING PITCHING

Framber Valdez is vintage reliability, good to make his 30 starts and have an ERA around 3.00. Hunter Brown emerged last year as a good #2, with 30 starts and a 3.49 ERA. Ronel Blanco was even better, getting his first chance at regularly being in the rotation and posting a 2.80 ERA in 29 starts.

Spencer Arregheti was mediocre last year, with a 4.53 ERA. He was also a rookie, so even a modest natural progression would make him a comfortable #4 starter. The big question mark is Luis Garcia. He pitched reasonably well in 2022, with a 3.72 ERA over 28 starts, but Tommy John surgery has had him out since the early part of ’23. Garcia had to be shut down this past week for elbow soreness—for how long remains to be seen.

BULLPEN

Josh Hader will at least be steady as the closer and has shown the ability to rise to greatness in spurts. Bryan Abreu, Kaleb Ort, Bryan King, and Tayler Scott are all reliable options for second-year manager Joe Espada.

OUTLOOK

The Astros look good. There’s no serious weaknesses on this team and they have veteran leadership. Whether they get back to World Series level is an open question, but they certainly look likely to keep churning out playoff appearances and perhaps extend that AL West title string. Betting markets are putting their Over/Under on wins at 86.5. I think at minimum, they end up on the right side of that number.