MLB Notebook: Division Series Preview

J.P. Flynn Blog

The best-of-five Division Series round gets rolling today, with all four matchups swinging into action. Our objective in these previews is to give a little historical and cultural backdrop for each series, as well as some nuts-and-bolts insight. What are the key factors each team has going for and against them? Who’s favored? We’ll keep it concise, and we’ll wrap it up with a prediction of our own.

Betting odds are listed in italics. Whether you wager or not (we don’t, our picks are for fun), these are a valuable tool for telling us what informed opinion (oddsmakers, heavy bettors) thinks. If a team is listed as a (-200) favorite, it means you have to wager $200 to earn $100 in profit (in addition to the original $200).

Look back on Octobers gone by in our free download, The League Championship Series Chronicles Vol. 1 (1969-80). Click here to get your free download.

With the table set, let’s dive in. For those of you who want a faster scroll, we’ve included a “This Series in a Sentence” at the bottom of each section to encapsulate the analysis.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

(4)NY Yankees – (1)Toronto
Favorite: Yankees (-150)
The Yanks and Blue Jays have been AL East rivals since Toronto came into the existence in 1977, and this will be their biggest showdown since they jousted for the division title to the final weekend of the 1985 season, an old-school pennant race won by the Blue Jays. This year, their 94-68 records are the best in the American League, with Toronto winning the head-to-head tiebreaker to get the higher seed and the right to open this series at home.

Toronto puts the ball in play and populates the bases better than anyone in baseball. They lead the majors in average and on-base percentage. They have a proven October performer in George Springer, and a star in Vladdy Guerrero Jr. who can take over a short series. What the Jays have not done effectively is pitch. Their staff ERA is subpar, and the bullpen is a complete mess.

New York is coming out of the cauldron of the Wild-Card Round, having survived archrival Boston, a series where the Yankees got solid starting pitching. Their own bullpen was a little spotty at times and remains a concern, but David Bednar is solid closing games out. The Yankee offense was the best in baseball this year, loaded with power. Their challenge will be in getting hits consistently. To that end, Aaron Judge’s four hits against the Red Sox were a good sign, as was the play of 9-hole hitter Anthony Volpe, a potential X-factor in October.

The Yankees may be the lower seed, but as noted, that’s only because of a tiebreaker. They closed the season hotter than the Blue Jays. Game 1 looms enormous for Toronto. The Jays have a rested ace in Kevin Gausman, while the Yankees will use 4-starter Luis Gil before flipping back to the top and going with the Max Fried-Carlos Rodon-Cam Schlittler trio. But even if Toronto wins today’s battle, New York is better suited to win the war.

This Series in a Sentence: Toronto desperately needs starting pitchers to return to previously shown form, and the bullpen to pitch significantly better than they ever have before.
Pick: Yankees in 4

(6)Detroit – (2)Seattle
Favorite: Mariners (-170)
There’s only one franchise in baseball that has never even made the World Series and it’s your Seattle Mariners. This year, they have one of the great stories in baseball with catcher Cal Raleigh hitting 60 home runs, and they’re hot coming in. Is that enough to push them past a Tiger team that has one of the game’s best pitchers in Tarik Skubal and won a Wild-Card series in Cleveland, but also played sub-.500 baseball for the final two months of the season?

Seattle’s flaw—and it’s a big one—is that they don’t hit for average, ranking just 20^th in the majors. But they aren’t one-dimensional in waiting around for the long ball. Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena both played well in the stretch drive, and both are base-stealing threats. Beyond the trio of Raleigh, J-Rod and Arozarena, the Mariners have power depth in the bats of Eugenio Suarez and Jorge Polanco. They have a potential X-factor in DH Dominic Canzone, who batted .300 in 82 games. And they have a deep bullpen, highlighted by an elite closer in Andres Munoz.

Detroit has a proven October winner in manager A.J. Hinch. He won a World Series in Houston in 2017, and this is his second straight year getting the Tigers out of the Wild-Card Round. The Tigers have to be heartened by the way Javier Baez, a one-time October hero for the Cubs in 2016, swung the bat in Cleveland this week, getting five hits. Detroit also got consistent contact from Riley Greene. They would really benefit if someone like Gleyber Torres or Colt Keith, both of whom are capable, strung together a nice series with consistent base hits.

But Skubal is what ultimately looms over the series. In the games he doesn’t pitch, the more balanced Mariner rotation gives Seattle an edge. Skubal also won’t be available until Game 2, meaning he would have to pitch a potential Game 5 on three days’ rest. That puts a ton of pressure on Seattle to set a quick tone by winning Game 1 at home, lest this series get away from them. But the Mariners are the better team, and Tarik can’t pitch every game.

This Series in a Sentence: Skubal’s presence looms, but Seattle is better everywhere else.
Pick: Mariners in 4

NATIONAL LEAGUE

(4)Chi Cubs – (1)Milwaukee
Favorite: Brewers (-115)
These are two cities that indulge in a spirited rivalry across sports, but it’s surprisingly limited in the number of truly big showdowns. The Brewers and Cubs have never met in the postseason and 2007-08 was the only time they really had signature battles in the NL Central. Crisscrossing sports, the Packers-Bears NFC Championship Game in 2010 is the only major postseason event between these two fan bases. But ever since manager Craig Counsell took a big payday to make the drive down I-94 from Milwaukee to Chicago prior to 2024, this rivalry has had new heat. There will be a good chunk of road fans at all games in this series, and the atmosphere promises to be electric.

The Brewers pulled away in the division race in August, and then kind of coasted through September. Whether they can regain their momentum is the overriding question of the series. But if they do, they have a lot of strengths. Milwaukee hits consistently for contact, runs the bases well, has good frontline starting pitching, a legitimate ace in Freddy Peralta and an elite bullpen, headlined by Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill closing things. They don’t hit for power, but it would surprise no one if Christian Yelich woke up a few echoes or someone like an Andrew Vaughn put his mark on the series.

Chicago has plenty of power, and they used it to get by San Diego where some well-timed solo home runs were the key factors in a tense, pitching-dominated series. The Cubs also have reliable frontline pitching, led by Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga. Although given Counsell’s propensity for the bullpen—extreme, even by today’s standards—you can count on seeing five to six Cubbie arms each game. The bullpen is deep with Daniel Palencia, the best arm in the group.

The problem the Cubs face, and it nearly sunk them against the Padres, is the inability to get runners on base consistently. They are dependent on the long ball. If this series comes down to hitting home runs, Chicago can win. But if it comes down to…well, anything else, Milwaukee is better. Their pitchers have one job—keep the Cubs in the ballpark. A Brewer team that had its heart broken last October by a Pete Alonso blast from the Mets won’t take that for granted, but this is not the time of year where you want to ride the team completely dependent on hitting home runs.

This Series in a Sentence: If the series comes down to anything other than the ability to hit home runs, the Brewers are better.
Pick: Brewers in 3

(3)LA Dodgers – (2)Philadelphia
This is the only Division Round series where the combatants have a previous playoff history with each other, and what a history it is. The Phils and Dodgers met in the NLCS in 1977 and 1978, with Los Angeles winning both. Philadelphia returned the favor in the 2008 and 2009 NLCS battles. The rivalry extends across sports boundaries. The Lakers and 76ers have a rich history battling in the NBA Finals. And we need only look back to last January when the Rams and Eagles played a terrific playoff game in the snow. Now, we get a new chapter.

Moreover, betting markets consider these two teams the best in all of baseball. Philadelphia opened the playoffs as the favorites to win the World Series, although now that Los Angeles is out of the Wild-Card Round, the Dodgers have reclaimed that status. Either way, the team that wins this round will be favored the rest of the way.

There’s a truckload of star power on both sides. Shohei Ohtani will make his postseason pitching debut in Game 1. That’s in addition to the hot bat he swung against Cincinnati earlier this week. After so-so regular seasons, Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernandez heated up against the Reds. Freddie Freeman is lurking. And keep on eye on role players like Kiki Hernandez and Tommy Edman, both with track records of playoff success—in fact, it was Edman who was the NLCS MVP just last year.

But the Phillies have their own muscle. Kyle Schwarber hit 56 homers, and he knows how to get on base. Schwarber is also a proven October performer. So is Bryce Harper. Trea Turner is a contact hitting and base-stealing sparkplug at the top of the lineup who can induce anxiety in an opposing pitcher. And in Nick Castellanos and Brandon Marsh, the Phils have their own hitters who aren’t big names but have a demonstrated ability to impact a playoff series.

What we haven’t talked about is pitching, and here’s where the difference lies. Beyond Yoshinobu Yamomoto and Blake Snell, the Dodger staff is vulnerable. Their bullpen was a weak spot coming in, and they inspired even less confidence against the Reds. The Phils are even better at the top of the rotation, with Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez. While the bullpen isn’t deep, it’s solid at the end, with Jhoan Duran slamming the door. That’s what stands out to me in this series.

This Series in a Sentence: So much star power and so many proven October performers, but the Phillies have more length in their pitching staff.
Pick: Phillies in 5

LOOKING AHEAD

Division Series play will go at least until Wednesday and potentially to next Saturday. At whatever point all four series conclude, we’ll revisit them.

Between now and then, amidst the baseball drama and the excitement of football season continuing to take shape, we also have the opening of hockey season. The NHL drops the puck on its regular season Tuesday night. We’ll have a “soft opening,” an easy look at some opening storylines to keep an eye on as the long marathon to the long postseason begins.

So, we’ll see you soon in this space. In the meantime, everyone enjoy a great weekend of baseball! And don’t forget to check out our free download, The League Championship Series Chronicles, Vol. 1 (1969-80). Click here to access your free ticket to October baseball at its best.