MLB Notebook: Cincinnati Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds were one of the biggest disappointments of last season, struggling to a 77-85 record and bringing an overdue end to the six-year tenure of manager David Bell. The Reds showed they meant business in the offseason by coaxing Terry Francona out of retirement. With two World Series titles in Boston and another American League pennant in Cleveland already under his belt, Francona looks to turn this promising team into a bona fide contender.

Here’s our spring look-in at the Cincinnati Reds:

HITTING FOR POWER

The dynamic young shortstop Elly De La Cruz hit 25 homers last year and slugged .471. Tyler Stephenson flashed some power at the catching position, hitting 19 bombs. Spencer Steer is a promising first baseman who has hit 20-plus home runs each of the last two years. So has designated hitter Jeimer Candelario.

The Reds can further benefit from some comeback years. Matt McClain was one of the game’s best young middle infielders in 2023, slugging .507. He missed all of his last year due to injury, but is back playing second base. The McClain – De La Cruz combo could be baseball’s best offensive middle infield. Staying up the middle in centerfield, T.J. Friedl needs to recapture his 2023 form when he slugged .467.

GETTING ON BASE

A healthy McClain and a rising De La Cruz have to be the difference-makers here. McClain finished with a .357 OBP in his healthy ’23 campaign. De La Cruz got his OBP to .339 last year. Adding another 10-15 points to that figure would be a nice boon for the Cincy lineup and very reasonable to expect at this stage of De La Cruz’s career.

Furthermore, De La Cruz is a major base stealing threat, swiping 67 bags last year. Jake Fraley also steals 15-20 bases and produces OBPs in the high .330s. Friedl and Steer are likely to be in that same category.

Cincinnati got Gavin Lux from the Dodgers to play third base. Lux finished with a .346 OBP as recently as 2022, but he was hurt the following year and mediocre during L.A.’s championship run a year ago. If nothing else though, Lux brings some winning experience to a clubhouse that needs it.

STARTING PITCHING

The potential in the rotation is what can give optimism to Cincinnati. Hunter Greene emerged last season with a 2.75 ERA and could become a legitimate ace. So could Andrew Abbott, so long as he stays healthy and can give 30-plus starts. Brady Singer is a nice acquisition from Kansas City and a steady mid-rotation arm. The two Nicks—Lodolo and Martinez have shown enough promise for Reds fans to be hopeful.

BULLPEN

Francona has viable options in relief. Alexis Diaz is steady in the closer’s role, and he’s flirted with greatness. Taylor Rogers and Sam Moll are good enough. Getting a good year from Emilio Pagan would be a bonus.

OUTLOOK

Cincinnati has only had three winning seasons since Dusty Baker left town after the 2013 season. And those were seasons with records of 31-29 in the shortened year of 2020, 83-79 (2021) and 82-80 (2023). Even with the hiring of Francona, betting markets aren’t counting on much change, posting an Over/Win total of 79.5 .I’m a little more optimistic than that. While I got burned with my optimism on this team a year ago, that was before Tito was in the dugout. They definitely go over .500 and will be in the hunt for the NL Central crown.