MLB Notebook: Atlanta Braves Preview

The Atlanta Braves have been one of the National League’s signature franchises during the managerial tenure of Brian Snitker. Seven straight winning seasons. Each one ending in the playoffs. A World Series title in 2021. That made the Braves’ 89-win campaign and quick exit in the Wild-Card Round a year ago a disappointment. But it was more than a little noteworthy that Atlanta accomplished that in spite of an absolutely devastating series of injuries. While they aren’t completely out of the woods on that front, the medical report is much brighter right now.

Here’s our overview of the Atlanta Braves as they head into the 2025 season:

POWER

The Braves have muscle. Designated hitter Marcell Ozuna carried the offense amidst the injuries last year, and over the last two seasons, Ozuna has hit 79 home runs. Matt Olson and Austin Riley are the corner infielders and are good for 30-40 homers per year. Wha’s more, Riley was one of the many key Atlanta players who missed substantial time in ’24.

Second baseman Ozzie Albies is an every-other-year player. In his good years, he goes for 30 home runs and slugs over .500. The good news for Atlanta? Odd-numbered years are when Ozzie rolls. Last year, injuries limited him to 99 games. Catcher Sean Murphy, one of the league’s best in ’23, was hurt much of last season. Murphy has respectable power when he’s healthy.

GETTING ON BASE

Atlanta doesn’t have a prototype table-setter. If you look at the stats over a three-year cycle, Olson is the only one with an OBP that reaches .350, although Riley, Ozuna and Murphy do flirt with that. Albies, while he could be a more patient hitter, has a .263 batting average over that multi-year period. It’s not great, but it’s good enough.

The Braves added leftfielder Jurickson Profar, who did everything well last year. He posted an OBP of .380 and slugged .459. But that was also the career year for a player whose been in the league since 2016. It seems like a lot to expect Profar to repeat that. But if form holds, he should still produce an OBP in the .330-.340 range.

Michael Harris is a pure contact hitter and base stealer and a big year from him would make the Atlanta offense unstoppable. But Harris has been in decline for the last two years.

THE X-FACTOR

Not a category we normally use in these spring training previews, it applies here. The offense discussed to this point already looks promising. We haven’t even gotten to the best player, Ronald Acuna Jr. There is nothing Acuna doesn’t do well, from hitting for power, to hitting for average to taking his walks to stealing bases. He won the MVP award in 2023. His injury last year was the most significant of the many Atlanta suffered. He’s the X-factor, but he’ll still miss at least the first month of the season. Whenever he returns, he can serve as the Braves’ big midseason acquisition.

STARTING PITCHING

It’s a sign of how strange Atlanta’s season was last year that amidst all the injuries, it was Chris Sale who stayed healthy. The constantly-injured starting pitcher made 29 starts, his most since 2017. And oh, what he did with those starts—an 18-3 record, 2.38 ERA and the Cy Young Award. It was a great moment for Sale, and it helped save his team’s season, but expecting a repeat of that isn’t realistic. In fact, given his history, is it even realistic to expect another year of good health?

Reynaldo Lopez pitched fantastic baseball over 25 starts last year, his best season since 2019, finishing with a 1.99 ERA. Like Sale, asking for a reprise seems ridiculous, and it’s even questionable if he’ll be reliable again.

That’s the potential negative. There’s also an upside.

Spencer Strider is supposed to return from the injured list. After winning 20 games in ’23, Strider had to undergo elbow surgery. Like Acuna, he’s projected for a May return. Another Spencer—Schwellenbach—had a nice rookie year, a 3.35 ERA in 21 starts. That’s the kind of success that looks sustainable. Another young arm is Grant Holmes, who posted a 3.56 ERA in a mix of starting and relief work.

Atlanta can reasonably hope that any decline from Sale and Lopez be offset by the return of Strider and continued development for Schwellenbach and Holmes.

BULLPEN

Raisel Iglesias is steady in the closer’s role. Dylan Lee is a young arm who finished with a 2.11 ERA last year. Snitker has respectable arms in Daysbel Hernandez and Pierce Johnson. The relief corps isn’t great, but it’s good enough—especially if the rotation is steady and doesn’t force overwork.

OUTLOOK

The betting markets expect Atlanta to come back and so do I. Their Over/Under win total is set at a healthy 93.5. While reserving the right to change my mind before Opening Day, I don’t see any reason not to pick an Over, and to see the Braves back as a World Series contender.