MLB Notebook: Arizona Diamondbacks Preview

The fact the Arizona Diamondbacks missed the postseason last year after making the World Series in 2023 hid the fact the team actually improved. The ’23 edition squeaked into the playoffs at 84-78 and then went on a run. Last season’s D-Backs won 89 games and were in the race to the final day, but in a National League that was more competitive on the playoff bubble, it wasn’t quite enough. But if the upward trajectory continues, Arizona will surely find themselves back on the October stage.

Here’s an overview of the Diamondbacks:

HITTING FOR POWER

Second baseman Ketel Marte has become a bona fide star. After his hitting fueled Arizona’s ’23 pennant run, Marte hit 36 home runs in 2024. In any world that didn’t have Shohei Ohtani in the National League, Marte would be an MVP candidate.

The Diamondbacks further upgraded their power by bringing in first baseman Josh Naylor from Cleveland. While last year’s 31 homers were a career high and likely an anomaly, Naylor is still consistently good for 20 bombs a year. Across the infield is Eugenio Suarez, who is probably good for 25-30 home runs.

Lourdes Gurriel and Corbin Carroll are at the corner outfield spots. Gurriel has respectable power, in the 15-20 homer range. The multi-year averages tell you the same about Carroll. What they don’t tell you is that Carroll was fantastic in ’23 as Rookie of the Year, before falling victim to a sophomore slump. We’ll find out which one is real. We’ll also find out if Pavin Smith’s 60 games last year, where he slugged .547, can translate into a full season at the DH spot.

GETTING ON BASE

Carroll’s improvement (or not) is even more important in this facet of the offense, given his ability as a base stealer. Jake McCarthy plays centerfield and is another base stealer with an OBP in the .330 to .340 range. Geraldo Perdomo doesn’t steal a lot of bags, but the shortstop’s OBP hovers around .350. The same goes for catcher Gabriel Moreno. And Smith was in that same neighborhood over his 60 games in 2024. And then there’s Marte, who has averaged a .352 OBP over the past three seasons.

In short, Arizona should have no problem setting the table and then cleaning it up.

STARTING PITCHING

Corbin Burnes was the big acquisition in the offseason giving the Diamondbacks an ace at the top. Burnes typically keeps his ERA in the low 3s and won a Cy Young Award with Milwaukee in 2021. Zac Gallen produces ERAs in the same range and is more than capable of winning the award himself.

Arizona’s rotation needs Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez to be healthy. Kelly only made 13 starts a year ago, although he was effective when he did pitch. The same can’t be said for E-Rod, who pitched poorly in his ten starts. This underscores that Rodriguez is a double question mark—can he stay healthy and is the veteran finally at the end of the line?

Brandon Pfaadt has been mostly ineffective, although he does consistently take his turn—something of no small importance in this era when bullpens are taxed heavily.

BULLPEN

Speaking of the bullpen, ninth-year manager Torey LoVullo has a lot of good options at his disposal. Justin Martinez is slated to get his chance at closer, and he posted a 2.48 ERA last year. A.J. Puk, Kevin Ginkel and Ryan Thompson are all consistent. The return of Kendall Graveman from injury adds depth.

OUTLOOK

Arizona is really good. I’m not sure if they’re Dodger-good, but they are 95-win good. I understand the betting markets staying cautious and posting their Over/Under win total at 86.5, but I have no hesitation at going Over.