MLB Notebook: The American League Landscape

The trade deadline is passed and the rosters for the stretch drive are set. It’s time to pivot into the final two months of the regular season. Here’s how the American League landscape is shaping up:

HOME FREE: DETROIT TIGERS POISED TO CRUISE

The Tigers are cruising to the AL Central title, although it has to be said that they are in a tight race with whomever prevails in the other two divisions for the first-round byes. So, while Detroit is going to win the Central, they still have plenty to play for the final two months.

Tarik Skubal is a prime contender to win a repeat Cy Young Award and Casey Mize is a good #2 starter, but an injury to Reese Olson was a problem for the rotation. The front office responded by dealing for veteran Charlie Morton, and Chris Paddack. And the starting pitching needs to be good because the bullpen is a bit more problematic.

Even playing in a pitcher’s park, the Tiger offense is scoring runs. Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene, and Kerry Carpenter supply the power. Gleyber Torres and Zach McKinstry can get on base. Detroit can hit and the top of the rotation is strong. Their fate will be determined by how the rotation-strengthening trades pan out and if the bullpen can come together.

AL EAST: A THREE-TEAM BATTLE

The Blue Jays are in the lead and a narrow favorite to hold off the Yankees. The Red Sox are still within five, although betting markets are skeptical of their ability to win this division, making them a longer 9-1 shot .

Toronto’s Lineup Delivers, Pitching A Concern

Vladdy Guerrero Jr. isn’t hitting for the same kind of power we’ve gotten used to, with 15 home runs. But he still has a sparkling on-base percentage of .400 and is one of five players who are batting .280 or higher. Toronto’s lineup produces and the resurgence of veteran DH George Springer is a big reason why. Springer is slugging .506, Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk and Ernie Clement are having good years, and the Jays rank seventh in the majors for runs scored.

But pitching is a serious issue, with staff ERA ranking just 22nd. Toronto traded for Shane Bieber, who still needs a couple of rehab starts before becoming healthy. It was a worthy acquisition, but it’s ultimate impact is very much up in the air. What the Jays really need is for Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman or Chris Bassitt—all of whom are having years that are “okay,” but not stellar—to step up and pitch like an ace when it matters most.

Judge’s Return Headlines Yankee Push

The injury to Aaron Judge threatened to upend the entire landscape, from this race to the push for the MVP award. But Judge is talking about returning as early as Tuesday in a DH role. He’s carrying the Yankee offense, with an astonishing stat line of .449 OBP/.711 slugging. Judge gets some power support from Ben Rice, Jazz Chisholm, Cody Bellinger, and a just-healthy Giancarlo Stanton. How well that supporting cast performs will determine how effective the New York attack is.

Manager Aaron Boone has a legitimate ace in Max Fried, and reliable starters in Carlos Rodon and Clarke Schmidt. Those three arms are enough to get through the early rounds of the playoffs. But the bullpen has been a big problem—the Yanks are 20th in MLB for relievers’ ERA. And it was that area they addressed at the deadline, acquiring David Bednar from Pittsburgh and Camilio Doval from San Francisco.

Red Sox Ride Youth and Balance

The Red Sox have had an up-and-down year, from falling short of expectation early, to shipping out Rafael Devers, to enjoying a revival with an emerging core of young players. Balance is the key to the fourth-best offense in MLB. Alex Bregman has a stat line of .371/.551, but he’s also played just 64 games due to injury. The real key is the fact that six players, including Bregman, have hit between 15-20 home runs. That doesn’t include Masataka Yoshida, who is just back from the injured list at DH.

Boston’s rotation has been inconsistent, but it’s great at the top, with Garrett Crochet making a run at the Cy Young Award and Brayan Bello coming into his own. The Red Sox took a flyer on acquiring Dustin May from the Dodgers to try and help there. They also added Steven Matz for a bullpen that manager Alex Cora has done an exquisite job of handling, with enough depth to set up closer Aroldis Chapman.

AL WEST: HOUSTON LEADS WHILE SEATTLE & TEXAS LURK

The race in the West has a similar dynamic to what’s happening in the East. The Astros have the lead and are the favorite, with the Mariners still given a good shot at catching them. The Rangers, while firmly in the playoff race and only a game back of Seattle, are not seen as likely to win this division.

The Astros Win With Arms—Can They Score Enough?

Pitching is what’s driving Houston’s success. Framber Valdez continues to be as reliable a starter as there is, taking his turn, logging innings, and posting a 2.62 ERA. Hunter Brown has become a legit top-of-the-rotation guy himself, with a 2.54 ERA. Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu lead up a bullpen that is very deep. You need to beat the Astros early, because it’s very tough to do it late.

Can they score enough runs though? Houston’s offense is just 17th in MLB, in large part due to Yordan Alvarez going through a lost season due to a hand injury that he’s still trying to come back from. Isaac Paredes was playing well at third base, but now he’s gone for the year. The good news? Even at age 35 and moved to leftfield, Jose Altuve is still producing, with a .345/.465 stat line. Jake Meyers is a consistent hitter, and the front office brought Carlos Correa back home at the trade deadline. Correa will move to third base. Houston needs a revival from Correa and a return to health by Alvarez to rejuvenate their attack.

Mariners Swing Big At The Deadline

Seattle was a major player at the trade deadline. They added Josh Naylor at first base and then hauled in the big prize—third baseman Eugenio Suarez and his 36 home runs. Naylor and Suarez join a lineup that’s been anchored by catcher Cal Raleigh and his league-leading 42 homers. Leftfielder Randy Arozarena has a .353/470 stat line. Julio Rodriguez in center is having a down year, but we’ve seen this happen before—J-Rod typically gets better down the stretch. Both he and Arozarena are also base-stealing threats.

A name to keep an eye on is rightfielder Dominic Canzone, who has burst onto the scene with a .336/481 stat line. Seattle’s pitching isn’t deep, but they have three solid starters in Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo, and Logan Gilbert, along with a top-flight closer in Andres Munoz. As the season gets shorter, that’s enough pitching to make the Mariners a threat.

Ranger Rotation Could Be An X-Factor

I’m not sure why Texas isn’t getting love in the betting markets. They’re led by a four-time champion manager in Bruce Bochy and they have the best pitching in baseball. Jacob de Grom is finally staying healthy. Nate Eovaldi is a Cy Young candidate. Tyler Mahle is having an exceptional year. And the rich got richer at the trade deadline, as Texas acquired Merrill Kelly from Arizona. Nor does it get any easier if you get in the bullpen, where the Rangers are balanced, deep and have the fourth-best relievers’ ERA in the game.

Scoring runs is going to be the challenge, where Texas ranks just 22nd. Corey Seager is having a good year, but that’s about it. Marcus Semien is a prime example of a veteran who needs to pick up the pace these final two months.

FOUR ON THE FRINGE

The seven teams above are expected to fill the six playoff spots, but there are four others that the standings tell us still have a shot…

Kansas City: Based on deadline moves, the Royals are the most serious challengers in this group. They signed starting pitcher Seth Lugo to an extension rather than trading him and added some support pieces in the lineup and bullpen. Bobby Witt Jr.’s season has been decent, but not MVP level, with a stat line of .339/492. K.C. needs him to hit like an MVP the rest of the way.

Cleveland: Jose Ramirez continues to put up numbers, with a .371/.520 stat line, Steven Kwan continues to make contact, batting .286, and the Guardians continue to have a solid bullpen. But there’s no depth in the lineup and Naylor was dealt to Seattle. There’s no real starting pitching and Bieber was shipped to Toronto. It’s hard to take Cleveland seriously when their own front office seems to be waving the white flag.

Tampa Bay: The Rays are another team where the standings say they have a shot, but the front office’s actions say otherwise. Tampa dealt starting pitcher Zack Littell. The Rays have a good corner infield combo with Jonathan Aranda at first and Junior Caminero at third. The ever-reliable Yandy Diaz is at DH. As usual, Tampa overachieves on the field but gets no support from above.

LA Angels: Mike Trout is aging too soon, playing through injuries at age 33. Los Angeles gets its power from Taylor Ward and Jo Adell in the outfield. The Halos made some minor moves at the deadline, but neither bought nor sold. A winning season is realistic, but with poor pitching, making a run at the playoffs seems like a long shot.

WAIT TILL NEXT YEAR

That’s 11 of 15 teams still with something resembling a chance. Only Baltimore, Minnesota, the Chicago White Sox, and the Athletics are dead in the water.

LOOKING AHEAD

Detroit is the betting favorite to win the American League pennant. It has to be said, however, that the Tigers are only a narrow favorite and that might well be due to the fact that we simply don’t know who the other two division winners will be. Whether Detroit still holds that status when the postseason begins is a big question mark.

We’ll be back in this space later this weekend with a look at the National League.