MLB Notebook: AL West Memorial Day Report

Let’s see how the teams of the AL West are shaping up comparative to expectations and what we might expect moving into the summer…

Seattle (29-23)
Preseason Over/Under: 85.5
Current Pace: 90
A nice start for the Mariners is keyed by an offense that’s producing. Cal Raleigh is the biggest reason why, with a stat line of .372 on-base percentage/.577 slugging percentage and 17 homers. Randy Arozarena and J.P. Crawford are both getting on base. While the pitching has been more middle of the road, Luis Castillo has continued to be a reliable ace and Andres Munoz is the very definition of a lights-out closer—zero earned runs in 22 innings and 17 saves.

The concerns looking forward would be the lack of production from Julio Rodriguez. Although that can also be seen as a positive—Seattle is winning without contributions from its best all-around player, and one who has a track record of picking up the pace as the season goes on. A surge from J-Rod could counteract a likely tail-off from Raleigh. Seattle also needs to get starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller back from the injured list.

Houston  (28-25)
Preseason Over/Under: 86.5
Current Pace: 85
The Astros are hanging in the race in spite of getting nothing from Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez. The latter is dealing with some nagging injuries, but should be back in short order. They also need some depth in the rotation.

But otherwise, there are reasons for optimism in Houston. Hunter Brown is pitching brilliantly in the rotation and Framber Valdez continues to be the dictionary definition of reliable. Josh Hader, with his 1.57 ERA and 13 saves, anchors the best bullpen in the American League. The Astros are well on track to be in contention all year long, and getting anything at all from their biggest stars could lift them one level higher.

Texas (26-28)
Preseason Over/Under: 86.5
Current Pace: 78
The Ranger offense has been just awful, ranking next-to-last in the AL for runs scored. The failures of Adolis Garcia and Marcus Semien would be the most notable in that regard, and now Joc Pederson is trying to rehab a fractured hand. The bullpen is also a problem, and losing Chris Martin (1.83 ERA) to shoulder fatigue has added to the misery.

But all isn’t lost in Dallas. Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob de Grom are leading the best starting pitching in the American League, with no obvious weak points in the rotation. Corey Seager is having a nice year, and Texas is getting some power from Wyatt Langford (.451 slugging percentage) and Josh Jung (.472 slugging). If some proven players can start hitting and manager Bruce Bochy can piece together a bullpen, the Rangers could still be interesting.

LA Angels (25-27)
Preseason Over/Under: 72.5
Current Pace: 78
Logan O’Hoppe has been one of baseball’s most productive catchers, slugging .543 and hitting 14 homers. Taylor Ward has muscled up with 15 home runs and Yoan Moncada, with a .347/.463 stat line, has played well all-around at third base. The top of the rotation, with Jose Siriano, Yusei Kikuchi, and Tyler Anderson have been respectable, with ERAs in the 3s. All of that is why LAA is thus far exceeding expectations.

That said, they still lose more than they win. Mike Trout is quietly fading fast, again dealing with injuries, and only batting .179 when he’s healthy. While those top-3 starting pitchers are respectable, none are aces, and there are significant problems on the back end of the rotation and with the relief corps. Jorge Soler and Tim Anderson are doing nothing. The Angels have a shot to exceed low expectations, but there’s nothing here suggesting a bona fide contender.

Athletics (23-31)
Preseason Over/Under: 71.5
Current Pace: 69
Everything with the A’s is about finding possible building blocks for when they complete their exile in Sacramento and move to their permanent home in Las Vegas in 2028. To that end, shortstop Jacob Wilson has been the bright spot, with a .393/.495 stat line. Brent Rooker and Tyler Soderstrom each have double-digit homers, and the A’s are a surprising fifth in the American League for runs scored.

But the pitching has been awful at every level. While Luis Severino (4.11 ERA in 11 starts) and J.P. Sears (4.00 ERA in 10 starts) are far from the biggest culprits, they’re also the only ones of whom its reasonable to expect more.

CONCLUSION
At the start of the season, I had this as a two-team race between Seattle and Houston, with the Mariners winning the division and the Astros making the playoffs. I see no reason to change that outlook. Whether the Rangers can solve their issues and get in the mix is the most interesting storyline moving into the summer.