MLB Notebook: AL East Memorial Day Report

Here’s how each AL East team is performing against preseason expectations, with the positives and negatives for each one:

NY Yanks (30-20)
Preseason Over/Under: 88.5
Current Pace: 97
The Yankees are scoring the most runs of anyone in the American League, with another spectacular year from Aaron Judge. With his eye on his third MVP award, Judge’s numbers are a surreal .487 on-base percentage/.754 slugging percentage and 17 homers. Paul Goldschmidt is enjoying a revival in the Bronx—not so much with power, but with a .335 batting average. Cody Bellinger, Ben Rice, Trent Grisham and Austin Wells have combined for 38 more homers. And all this is happening with Giancarlo Stanton injured and on the way back.

Even with losing Gerrit Cole for the season, the starting pitching is holding up, with Max Fried lights-out with a 1.29 ERA and Carlos Rodon at 2.88. The bullpen has been one of the league’s best. The long-term prospects for New York hinge on getting more depth in the rotation. Marcus Stroman and Luis Gil will come back from the injured list and their performance—or a possible trade acquisition—will shape how the Yanks look through the summer.

Boston (26-26)
Preseason Over/Under: 87.5
Current Pace: 81
A problematic pitching staff is the prime reason the Red Sox are scuffling, and no one is scuffling more than Tanner Houck, with his 8.04 ERA. While Aroldis Chapman has pitched well in the closer’s role, the bullpen collectively ranks ninth in the American League. The everyday lineup has suffered from the continued absence of Masataka Yoshida and a second straight early season-ending injury to Triston Casas. Trevor Story isn’t hitting well and after several years of being injured, you have to wonder if he’s simply finished.

The discontent of DH Rafael Devers is a major storyline, but it hasn’t impacted his hitting. After a poor start, Devers has 12 homers and a .415/.557 stat line. Alex Bregman looks like an All-Star again at third base, at .385/.553. Wilyer Abreu looks like the real thing in  rightfield and Carlos Narvaez has been a pleasant surprise at catcher. And while Jarren Durran is off to a slow start, he should start to heat up. The Red Sox are scoring runs and staying afloat, but they need pitching.

Toronto (25-25)
Preseason Over/Under: 78.5
Current Pace: 81
The Blue Jays are more or less what they were expected to be, but they could be better. Bo Bichette, while batting .284, isn’t taking walks or hitting for any kind of power, to the alleys or otherwise. Vladdy Guerrero only has six home runs. Anthony Santander is doing nothing. Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios have been functionable in the rotation, but neither is throwing like the legit ace they’re capable of being.

What is going right? Toronto’s bullpen ERA is the best in the American League, and you’ll grind out your share of wins that way, with Brendan Little being the best arm in the relief corps. George Springer’s putting together another nice year and Chris Bassitt has a 2.83 ERA in his ten starts. If the relievers stay consistent and the stars start hitting, the Jays could make some noise.

Tampa Bay (24-26)
Preseason Over/Under: 80.5
Current Pace: 78
The Rays are hanging in there because that’s what this organization usually finds a way to do, but there’s nothing they do particularly well. They’re in the lower third of the American League for runs scored, starters’ ERA and bullpen ERA. Although they’ve somehow managed to make those latter two add up to a respectable eight in composite ERA. Drew Rasmussen has been the best starter, with a 2.60 ERA in his ten starts. Three relievers, Pete Fairbanks closing, along with Garrett Cleavinger and Eric Orze and throwing the ball well.

If Tampa Bay is going to make any kind of move, Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe have to start hitting. Shane Baz is a starting pitcher who could be better. Otherwise, save for a nice year from Jonathan Aranda (.391/.490) the Rays are what was expected.

Baltimore (16-33)
Preseason Over/Under: 86.5
Current Pace: 53
The horrendous start for a team aiming for a third straight playoff trip got Brandon Hyde fired. But unless the Orioles find some starting pitching, nothing else is going to matter. While Tomoyuka Sugano has pitched well and has a 3.07 ERA, the failure of the starters is the primary reason Baltimore’s staff ERA is the American League’s worst.

But let’s not overlook the performances (or lack thereof) from four important everyday players. While Gunnar Henderson is slugging .462, the MVP-caliber shortstop isn’t getting on base. Adley Rutschman continues a decline in offensive production that began last year. Jordan Westburg and Tyler O’Neill have been non-factors. The Birds have some bright spots—the young second baseman, Jackson Holliday, is progressing and batting .272. Ryan O’Hearn has been the best all-around player with a .403/.571 stat line. The bullpen has been above average. But that pen has too big a workload and not enough runs to work with.

CONCLUSION
A part of me wants to say let’s just call this division for New York and move on to focusing on whether the Yankees can get homefield advantage in the playoffs and anyone else can make a run at the wild-cards. But I’m not ready to write off the Blue Jays’ division title chances just yet. They’ve played .500 ball without notable contributions from their best players. As we move into the summer, I think the most interesting story here is whether Toronto can make this a race at the top. My guess is no, but it’s still worth watching.