MLB Notebook: AL Central Memorial Day Report

The AL Central has turned into the powerhouse of the American League, with three playoff teams last year, and four winning teams so far this season. Here’s our Memorial Day look-in:

Detroit (34-20)
Preseason Over/Under: 83.5
Current Pace: 103
The Tigers are well-balanced, ranking in the top four for both runs scored and staff ERA. If you separate the pitching staff by rotation and relievers, they’re still top-four in both. Tarik Skubal is sitting on a 2.49 ERA and positioning himself to take a run at a second straight Cy Young Award. Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter are hitting for power. And first baseman Spencer Torkelson, at a threshold point in his career, has come up big with a stat line of .350 on-base percentage/.524 slugging percentage and 13 homers.

There’s really nothing not to like about Detroit right now. They played some of the best baseball anywhere over the last two months of 2024 and have carried that into this season. The bullpen is deep. They’ve got outfielders in Parker Meadows and Wenceel Perez working their way back from injury. Whether they can continue this 103-win pace is questionable, but they are here to stay.

Minnesota (29-23)
Preseason Over/Under: 83.5
Current Pace: 90
Good pitching has lifted the Twins into contention, and they sit on the third-best staff ERA in the American League. Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan, with ERAs in the 2s, lead the rotation and Jhoan Duran has been a dominant reliever. Offensively, Minnesota has gotten a lift from Byron Buxton’s 10 homers and Harrison Bader and Ryan Jeffers each having OBPs over .350.

The Twins are still in the AL’s lower half for scoring runs. Getting improvement there means that first baseman Ty France and shortstop Carlos Correa have got to start doing something at the plate.

Cleveland (29-23)
Preseason Over/Under: 82.5
Current Pace: 90
The Guardians are finding ways to win, but they rank ninth or lower in the American League for everything from runs scored to starters’ ERA to bullpen ERA. The rotation lost its most consistent arm when Ben Lively went down for the year. Emmanuel Clase seems to have not recovered from the beating he took in last year’s postseason—once the game’s best closer, he now has a 4.50 ERA. There is no one in the current lineup or rotation that you look at and think that improvement is likely.

But Cleveland won the division last year and are in the hunt this year, so clearly somebody is doing something right. Steven Kwan continues to be one of the most consistent contact hitters in the game with a .320 batting average. Jose Ramirez is having another vintage year at third base with a .365/.516 stat line. Daniel Scheeneman is swinging a nice bat at second base, with a .464 slugging percentage. What the Guardians really could use would be for Shane Bieber to make it back from injury and be the ace he once was.

Kansas City (29-25)
Preseason Over/Under: 82.5
Current Pace: 85
The American League’s best pitching has put the Royals in contention for a second straight playoff trip. Kris Bubic has had a fantastic spring, posting a 1.45 ERA in his 11 starts to lead the way. Everyone in the rotation, save for Cole Ragans, who is working his way back from IL, is pitching at least reasonably well. The bullpen has a lockdown trio of Daniel Lynch, Lucas Erceg, and Carlos Estevez to close games with.

It’s scoring runs that will be Kansas City’s challenge moving into the summer. While the left side of the infield, Bobby Witt and Maikel Garcia are having good all-around years, there’s no one else. Jonathan India and Michael Massey have done nothing. Neither has the legendary catcher, Salvador Perez, which begs the question of whether Salvador has finally reached the end of the line.

Chi Sox (17-36)
Preseason Over/Under: 54.5
Current Pace: 52
The White Sox have actually gotten some pretty good starting pitching, ranking sixth in the AL for rotation ERA. Shane Smith has a 2.36 ERA in his ten starts and there are no obvious weak points amongst the starters.

But there are obvious weak points everywhere else. The most disappointing is that Luis Robert Jr. has been completely unproductive. Any hopes for a career revival from Andrew Benintendi have been dashed. The everyday lineup is getting a .305 batting average from Chase Meidroth in the infield and a .355 OBP from Edgar Quero behind the plate. But that’s not enough to keep them out of the basement of the American League for runs scored—or in the bottom line where it counts, in the won-loss column.

CONCLUSION
It’s going to be an exciting summer in America’s heartland, as all four contenders should stay in the hunt. Even though my Cleveland comments had a negative tone, the Guardians have found ways to win with mirrors before, so I’m never ruling them out. This division has a great shot to sweep the three wild-card berths.